I'm tired of blaming other people for Virginia Tech's recruiting losses. I'm tired of blaming a 17 year old for making a bad decision, or the other coaching staff for negative recruiting. Blaming other people for your problems doesn't solve them. I'm ready to look in the mirror and address the real issue(s). The Hokies just can't close on top 100 prospects. It's as simple as that. But why?
Jalen Dalton picked UNC today. He's a top 100 defensive end from North Carolina who Tech had all but wrapped up. The Hokies got out-closed for a top 100 recruit, as usual. I normally don't get emotionally wrapped up in recruiting, but I was particularly attached to Dalton as a prospect. Also, Tech's latest top 100 loss continues a trend that I don't believe will ever end as long as Frank Beamer is head coach.
I'll say it plainly. There is no excuse in losing a recruit - particularly a defensive recruit - to UNC right now. Larry Fedora doesn't even pay attention to the defensive side of the ball. If you go to UNC, you take a risk of the program going on probation (again). If Tydreke Powell's allegations of the UNC staff instructing players to fail certain tests so they could get special help with their classwork turn out to be true, that University as a whole could be facing charges of fraud, a Federal investigation, etc.
There's really no good reason for a defensive recruit with Dalton's offer list to go to UNC right now. Yet Virginia Tech lost that battle. I fully admit that I'm not happy about it, and I expect more.
Today we'll take a look at top 100 recruits and their level of success at Virginia Tech, some recruiting thoughts in general, and Frank Beamer's ability to close on top 100 recruits. (By the way, I know VT recently landed Austin Clark, who is top 100 by one of the three major recruiting services. However, that doesn't discount the overall trend of the last 10+ years).
Rivals Top 100 Prospects are generally successful at Tech
Here's a list of Top 100 players (per Rivals) who signed with Virginia Tech from 2002 through 2013, and what they did in Blacksburg.
Marcus Vick, #8 nationally: Vick was ACC Offensive Player of the Year in 2005, but he was eventually booted off the team. Talent wasn't the issue with Marcus. He could play.
Macho Harris, #28 nationally: Macho became a three-year starter and an NFL draft pick.
Deveon Simmons, #93: Simmons didn't qualify and never enrolled.
Tyrod Taylor, #27 nationally: Taylor set multiple records at Virginia Tech and currently plays for the Baltimore Ravens.
Ryan Williams, #47 nationally: Some consider Williams to be the best running back Virginia Tech has ever had, when healthy. He was a second round pick in the NFL Draft.
Logan Thomas, #71 nationally: Thomas also set numerous records at Tech, and he is currently an Arizona Cardinal.
David Wilson, #40 nationally: Wilson broke the Tech single-season rushing record in 2011, and he was a first round pick.
Joel Caleb, #84 nationally: Thus far, Caleb hasn't panned out.
Kendall Fuller, #9 nationally: Without a doubt, Kendall Fuller is a future NFL player.
Wyatt Teller, #59 nationally: Teller is Tech's best lineman (by far), and he looks like a 4-year starter with an NFL future.
Assuming Teller gets drafted, every player on that list who actually enrolled at Tech will have been - or will be - drafted or signed to an NFL contract with the exception of Joel Caleb. That's a bunch of impact players. Go back to 2001 with Kevin Jones (#1 overall) and DeAngelo Hall (top 100 type), and you can even throw in guys who were just barely outside the top 100 like Jayron Hosley and Vinston Painter, who are currently in the NFL. Recruiting might be a crap shoot at times, but those top 100 level recruits seem to usually find a lot of success, particularly at Virginia Tech.
So while I'm not saying that Jalen Dalton is definitely an impact player and a future NFL Draft selection, history tells us that's exactly what he's going to turn into. Virginia Tech probably just lost a Ryan Williams, Macho Harris or Kendall Fuller. Not only did they lose him, but they lost him to a team that doesn't play defense, and which faces the possibility of more sanctions and a big investigation.
I'm upset by it because I think Dalton is a big time player, and I like him as much as Josh Sweat. He represents something that is rare at Virginia Tech…the combination of quickness and size at defensive end. He would have been a new breed of player for the Hokies. He's also a good guy with good parents, and he would have been an excellent fit all the way around. I'm bummed. I admit it.
Back on the night of September 6, Dalton was at UNC on an unofficial visit. Tech beat Ohio State that night, and he tweeted "I wish I was in Blacksburg right now!" Since then, he has made numerous trips to Tech. His only trip to UNC in that span was for Tech's 34-17 win over the Tar Heels back in October. He has indicated throughout the last two months that Virginia Tech was his favorite, and we heard that he all but told the VT staff he was going to sign with Tech. Charley Wiles did a terrific job with him throughout the entire process. How in the heck did things turn around in the last few days?
Unfortunately, the closing process began, and that's something Tech has never been very good at with top 100 recruits. More on that later, but first…
We'll take ours and play theirs…and play .500 football
A popular saying in the past when the Hokies lost recruits was "We'll take ours and play theirs and feel good about it." That was a neat little saying when the Hokies were winning 10 games every season. I bought into it, as most did. I don't anymore.
We've been taking ours and playing theirs since the beginning of the 2012 season, and since then we are only three games above .500. Against 1-A competition, we are exactly .500. Against Power 5 conference opponents since the start of 2012, we are 12-15. Let that sink in. The Hokies are three games below .500 against teams who play an equal level of football. I haven't heard anybody utter that "we'll take ours and play theirs and feel good about it" line in a few years, most likely because they don't feel good about it.
Why? As I covered in Friday's Q&A, approximately half of Tech's offensive recruits in 2010 and 2011 were not pursued by other major programs. In this day and age, almost all recruits go to camps and get exposure in front of college coaches. It's really hard to find the Jake Groves and James Andersons these days, because they are going to camps at South Carolina, Georgia and Florida and getting scholarship offers. There is no such thing as under-the-radar prospects anymore. There are simply too many camps and too much exposure. The chances of a top recruit slipping through the cracks are slim to none.
If you go to a bunch of camps and you don't get offers, there is probably a reason for that. As it stands, Tech ended up with a bunch of guys who didn't get major offers. In other words, they took a bunch of guys that nobody good wanted, and we are currently seeing why those guys weren't wanted.
You can only coach up a guy so much. I don't like the phrase "football is a chess match." It's not. Chess is an even game because the pieces are equal on each board, and it's all about the guy controlling the pieces. That's not the case in football. The coach with the best players usually wins.
There's a reason why the top players in professional sports get paid a lot more than their own head coaches. Mike Matheny, Manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, makes about $750,000 per year. 15 of the Cardinals' 25 players make $1 million or more. Five make $13.2 million or more. Cardinals fans, you tell me who is more important. Mike Matheny or Adam Wainright? Talent, talent, talent…that's more important that anything. Who was more important: Michael Jordan or Phil Jackson?
I think you get my point. To get back to winning 10 games a year, Tech needs better players. And not just on offense. They need to upgrade at free safety, and arguably at rover. They need to upgrade at backer. They need to get bigger on defense while maintain their superior speed. Since it's harder to find diamonds in the rough these days, that means they need to go out and beat other major programs head-to-head for recruits.
They did a much better job of that last year, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. However, we still see them continuing to struggle with signing top 100 recruits, and in particular they seem to struggling with closing against major competition for top 100 recruits.
Hokies must get better at closing
Recruiting in college athletics is pretty much the same as sales in the business world. You introduce your prospective client (recruit) to the product, gauge his/her interest, have multiple meetings, and then close the deal.
Ever since I've been reading TSL (2001), message board posters have often pondered why the Hokies can't close on recruits. I think that's inaccurate and misleading. Tech has closed on plenty of recruits. However, they don't have a good record of closing on top 100 recruits. There's a big difference between a regular recruit and a top 100 recruit in terms of talent and ability, not to mention interest from other schools. Scroll back up to the top section and check out that list. The Hokies have signed just 10 top 100 recruits dating back to Marcus Vick in 2002. That's hard to believe, considering the amount of games they have won in that span.
Why does that happen? The typical question on the board looks like this: "why can't our coaches close the deal with blue chip prospects?" I would alter that sentence slightly. I would ask the question, "why can't our head coach close the deal with blue chip prospects."
Even though Frank prides himself on not making coaching changes, the reality is that the staff has changed a lot since 2001. Here's how it looked that year…
QB: Rickey Bustle
RB: Billy Hite
WR: Tony Ball
TE: Danny Pearman
OL: Bryan Stinespring
DL: Charley Wiles
LB: Bud Foster
Whips and Rovers: Jim Cavanaugh
DB: Whammy Ward
Here's how it looks now…
QB: Scot Loeffler
RB: Shane Beamer
WR: Aaron Moorehead
TE: Bryan Stinespring
OL: Stacy Searels
DL: Charley Wiles
LB: Bud Foster
Whips: Cornell Brown
DB: Torrian Gray
Only Bud Foster, Bryan Stinespring and Charley Wiles were here in both 2001 and 2014. In between, guys like Kevin Rogers, Kevin Sherman, Jeff Grimes, Curt Newsome and Mike O'Cain roamed the sideline.
Point being, there has been plenty of coaching turnover. Almost the only place where there hasn't been a change is at the top. Almost the only thing in the program that hasn't changed over the past 15 years is Frank Beamer himself. The closing issue is a Frank Beamer problem, in my opinion. It's not an issue with the "staff" as a whole. There have been too many assistant coaches that have come through the program to blame it all on them.
When it comes down to closing on top 100 recruits, the head coach is more important than anybody on the staff. The recruiting coach gets the school involved, sets the visits and keeps up constant communications. Then the head coach swoops in and closes the deal. It's like volleyball. The setup can be perfect, but it's still up to the tall girl in tight shorts to jump up and spike it. That's how it's always worked in recruiting with elite prospects. Do a Google search on "Bobby Bowden recruiting closer." He was notorious for his ability to go head-to-head with other head coaches and close the deal on top 100 recruits.
Frank, bless his heart, has never shown the ability to go head-to-head with guys like Bowden, Dabo Swinney, Jimbo Fisher, Urban Meyer or even Larry Fedora in the closing process for top 100 recruits. When those coaches have really wanted a guy, they've been able to go head-to-head with Tech and win the battle. Until that changes, Virginia Tech is going to continue to finish in second place or third place in the vast majority of these top 100 battles.
I dislike UNC immensely, as you can probably tell by now, but I'm not going to let my disdain for them get in the way of analyzing this objectively. I'm sure they probably told Dalton "Don't worry Jalen, we won't get in trouble with the NCAA or the Feds, it will be ok." While that might or might not be true, what else would you expect them to say? Larry Fedora gets paid seven figures to win football games. He's not going to tell Dalton "Well Jalen, we don't know if we're going on probation or not, so you probably need to take that under consideration." Heck no. Nor should he. He gets paid a lot of money to win football games, not be a saint. That will get you fired in a heartbeat these days. If Virginia Tech faced the same situation, I would expect our coaching staff to handle it the same way.
For what it's worth, I don't think Fedora is that great of a coach, but he is an excellent salesman who understands how to use technology in modern recruiting. This is his Tweet as soon as Dalton committed to UNC...
Heel Yeah!!!
— Larry Fedora (@CoachFedora) November 13, 2014
This has nothing to do with UNC. This has to do with our own ability to close with top 100 recruits. It's time to look in the mirror at our own issue(s) rather than blaming a 17 year old for making a bad decision, or the opposing school for negative recruiting. It's been this way for far too long, and I'd be flat out shocked if it changed with Beamer at the helm. That's unfortunate, because it needs to. As I said earlier, it's becoming harder and harder to turn over a rock and find a James Anderson. These days, you have to go head-to-head with major programs for top recruits, and to be successful you have to close.
This will be a solid recruiting class. And it can still be a great class if the Hokies get the right offensive linemen, and close out with Josh Sweat and Tim Settle. But do you really trust them to close out with those types of players when they've never been able to do it before? I don't. I'm expecting pretty much the same type of recruiting class as usual (except with a higher number of OL) in February of 2015, and it will likely continue that way as long as Frank is the head coach.
Frank has made a lot of great decisions over the last couple of years. He has a much better staff around him now than he did before. Creating a separate recruiting department complete with interns was much-needed. It has helped get VT in the door with more prospects, and stay involved with more prospects. It has improved Tech's recruiting, and will continue to do so. Frank deserves a lot of credit for making those decisions. However, Director of Player Personnel Chuck Cantor and Director of High School Relations Thomas Guerry can't close on top 100 recruits. And you can't expect assistant coaches to be able to go head-to-head with head coaches. It has to be Frank Beamer. There's no other option. Until he starts doing a better job there, Tech's recruiting will be capped.