Duke and Jamison Crowder partied at VT's expense.[/caption]
Chris Coleman and I had a conversation in the preseason that went something like this:
Me: "I don't know, man. This thing of working all week long, including a lot of nights, then working the game all day Saturday, then watching game film Sunday afternoon and evening ... I don't know if I can keep this up. I'm getting too old for this."
Chris: "You don't have to watch the game film and take all those notes. Nobody's asking you to do analysis. Just make 'Monday Thoughts' literally your thoughts on the game."
Me: "Meh. I don't know. We'll see."
Well, today, you're getting my thoughts, no film watching involved. I haven't re-watched a moment of the game. You're not going to get a critique of the play calling, or route running, or blocking, or Kendall Fuller's stellar day intercepting the football, or a rant about yet more verbal goulash from Ron Cherry, who sounds like a kindergartner trying to explain quantum physics when he gets on the mic.
You might be treated to a rant, but if so, it will be accidental. I'm not in a ranting mood ... except about people who ask the question why the coaches don't put Mark Leal in the game. I might rant about that.
Here are my random ramblings, in no particular order.
We tried to warn you
"Eventually, every team beats you." -- yours truly, in our game preview
Yeah, yeah, Duke's well coached, Cutcliffe's doing a great job, VT has as small margin for error, blah-blah-blah ... we all know it's true. But to actually see it happen, in Lane Stadium, no less ... blech.
I started to get a weird vibe when I drove down Southgate Drive late Saturday morning and saw the tailgaters, or lack thereof. I thought I was running a little late, arriving around 11:30, just four hours before game time. Surely the Hokie fan base, chafing against early starts all season long, would show up early and get in some quality tailgating time before the 3:30 start.
Not so much. The 460 Bypass was clear, there was no line of traffic pulling onto Southgate Drive, and I rolled right down Southgate to the intersection with Tech Center Drive ... and the parking lots were mostly empty.
Then I found out J.R. Collins and Deon Clarke had been suspended. That's not good; that's a lack of focus.
Later, I went into the press box, and the environment, there of all places, was subdued and strangely quiet. I found J.D. Howell of ESPN Radio Blacksburg sitting on a couch, looking at the TV monitors. I sat down.
Me "Whatcha doin'?" Him: "Watching Wake-Miami." Long pause. Him: "Is it just me, or is it really quiet in here?" Me: "It's not just you."
Then I saw those nasty orange uniforms. Those orange pants, those orange jerseys, and those maroon helmets. Ugly. I had a UVa 1994 flashback, to the day that the Hokies wore those same unis and the Wahoos pounded Tech into the ground, 42-23, in a game that was 42-16 before the Hokies tacked on a cosmetic touchdown.
It all just smelled bad. Then Tech went out and lost to Duke, at home, 13-10, and after it was over, the little Will Ferrell in my head -- you've got one too, right? -- got all goggle-eyed and said to me, "That. Just. HAPPENED!"
Unfortunately, it did. Eventually, every team beats you. Even Duke.
Four QB Turnovers = Hokies Lose
We don't really need to go over The Stats again. You already know about the disparity in yardage, time of possession, and number of plays; and Duke's Mendoza Line offensive performance, four interceptions, and zero third-down conversions.
None of that matters. All that matters is that Logan Thomas threw four interceptions. When the Hokies throw four picks, they lose. Period.
Virginia Tech has wasted some stellar defensive (and sometimes special teams) performances over the years with a four-pick day from their quarterback, or more precisely, a four-plus turnover day from their quarterback. Join me in a walk down Misery Lane ... I mean Memory Lane ... no, wait, I mean Misery Lane:
September 7, 1991: The Hokies go to Raleigh and hold NC State to 7 points and 180 yards of total offense ... but lose 7-0, because Will Furrer throws five interceptions, four of them inside NC State's 20 yard line, one of them in NC State's end zone. (Side note: Furrer is #2 not just in his jersey number, but in career interceptions thrown, with 46, second only to Don Strock's 47. Missed it by that much.)
December 1, 2001: The Hokies play a good game against #1 Miami, block a punt for a TD, and have the dominant program in college football on the ropes, but Grant Noel turns it over five times (four INT, one fumble) in a 26-24 loss.
November 5, 2005: The Hokies hold #5 Miami to 304 yards of offense, but Marcus Vick turns in one of the worst performances by a QB in Hokie history, throwing two interceptions and losing four -- count 'em, four -- fumbles all by himself. VT loses 27-7.
December 30, 2006: Virginia Tech holds Georgia and future NFL quarterback Matt Stafford to nine first downs and 200 yards of total offense, but Sean Glennon throws three interceptions and loses a fumble on consecutive drives in the fourth quarter, to squander a 21-3 half time lead and lose 31-24. (To this day, fans who say that Virginia Tech should have just run the ball into the line on every play and then punt in the fourth quarter have a solid argument.)
I've probably forgotten other such stellar efforts that have been spoiled by a pants-wetting performance from the quarterback, but you get my point: If a Virginia Tech quarterback turns it over four ... or five ... or six times, the Hokies will lose.
(I'd be more interested in hearing if any of you remember a four-plus-turnover performance by a Tech QB in a win. I'm on a roll and don't have the time for the research right now. Suggestion: skip the games where Will Furrer played against Florida State.)
The irony is that, on the other side of the ball, Duke quarterback Anthony Boone did the same thing ... and Duke won. Duke should rightly remember this as a miracle win, because they did not do one single thing to deserve this win.
Oh, wait ... I'm forgetting something.
This guy can kick.Outplay the Guy Across from You
When I used to play a lot of pickup basketball, I had one simple thought: outscore the guy I'm matched up with. If all five guys on the team do that, you win. Just do your part. Outscore the guy who's guarding you, whether it's 1-0 or 8-7. (It was rarely 8-7 for me, I admit. 1-0 happened more often.)
Which Virginia Tech football player failed to "outscore the guy across from him"? Cody Journell. Kickers don't line up across from anyone per se, so their version of outscoring the guy across from them is to outscore the other kicker. Win that part of the game.
If you're Duke, and you're getting an atrocious performance from your QB (7-25, 107 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs), a magnificent game is going to have to come from someone else on your team. Duke kicker Ross Martin had that game. He was 2-2 and made field goals of 51 and 53 yards. He had a hell of a day for a college kicker, and because of it, Duke won.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech kicker Cody Journell made a 42-yarder and missed from 40 and 45 yards. The quarterbacks (and Virginia Tech's defense) turned this into a battle of kickers, and Ross Martin won.
Before you think this is some sort of freak occurrence, Martin, a sophomore, is now 26-31 (83.9%) on field goals for his career. That includes 4-4 on kicks of 50+ yards. He's legit.
Cody Journell, a redshirt senior, is 42-56 (75%) in his career. He hasn't made a single kick over 50 yards. He has only tried one, as a matter of fact, in 32 games played. Up till this year, Journell was 34-42 (81.0%) overall, a shade behind Martin and without the distance, but you could argue that Cody was "legit," too.
But this year, he has not been legit. He is 8-14 (57.1%) and was suspended one game for a violation of team rules. On Saturday, Frank Beamer passed up field goal attempts of 48 and 54 yards and went for it on fourth down, failing to convert both. David Cutcliffe tried field goals of 51 and 53 yards and made them both.
That's a game-within-the-game, buried deep in the stats, that helps explain the loss. Not only did VT not even try field goals the length of what Duke was trying, they failed to pick up the fourth downs that followed.
The Hokies were 4-6 on fourth down, and the result of those four conversions was a single field goal on one of the drives. 4-6 sounds good, but it just didn't help much. Duke, on the other hand was 1-1 on fourth down ... the run by Brandon Connette on their last possession where he slipped out of two sure tackles to ice the game.
The Misery Index
I don't usually look at the USA Today's web site anymore, because I think their latest redesign turned it from a useful resource into a confusing mess focused on tabloid journalism and splashy pictures.
But this morning, while pumping gas into my aging 2005 Ford Five Hundred, which went over a hundred thousand miles last Friday -- sorry to venture into Randy-King's-Lumina territory there -- I pulled out my phone, did a little web surfing, and somehow landed on USAT's weekly "misery index" for college football.
You don't need to ask if Virginia Tech's on the list of ten most miserable fan bases this week. You need to ask where on the list they are. The answer? Number three, behind Missouri and Ohio State. The commentary on the Hokies' loss to Duke was actually very respectful, so if you don't want to click here and read it
3. Virginia Tech: Once upon a time, quarterback Logan Thomas was considered one of the best pro prospects in all of college football. Scouts looked at his size, mobility, pure arm strength and saw a big-time NFL player. At some point, though, results matter – and Thomas' results have indicated that his ability to play the position will never quite match up to his physical skills. That has to be frustrating not only for Thomas, but a fan base that desperately wants him to succeed, only to be disappointed once again in Saturday's 13-10 loss to Duke at Lane Stadium. There's no doubt the Hokies have one of the nation's most impressive defenses, but they're wasting it this season thanks to an offense that just can't get it done against quality teams. Consider what happened Saturday: Virginia Tech held Duke to 198 total yards, forced four turnovers, nearly doubled the Blue Devils in time of possession (39:27 to 20:33) and didn't allow Duke to convert a third down (0-for-11) or complete a pass in the second half – and still lost. That's only possible with an offense as brutal as the Hokies', which got just 214 passing yards on Thomas' 38 attempts with four interceptions. Virginia Tech is going to end up 9-3 or 10-2 this season and feel like it underachieved.
I thought one message board poster -- sorry, I don't remember who -- summed it up perfectly over the weekend. He said words to the effect of "I'm tired of achieving new program lows without achieving any new program highs."
Ouch. That's very poignant.
If you've been here a long time, then you and I have walked this path of sifting through ugly losses before. It probably started with the 1997 Miami of Ohio game, which means we've covered a lot of nasty ground here. Sometimes it's appropriate to rant, sometimes to commiserate, sometimes to cheerlead. I've done them all in the last 17 years.
I've also warned you about a couple of things: that the Endgame for Frank Beamer was coming, and that fixing the offense was going to require Patience. The two are tied together. Will Frank Beamer become just another storied coach who fades at the end, or will he be able to go out "on top," however you define that?
We don't know. We just have to wait and see. But games like Saturday shake your confidence.
Parts of the fan base think Frank has already lost it and is fading to the end, and they have decided to do other things with their time and money. You see it in the large number of empty seats, even for a 3:30 game in good weather, and in the declining Hokie Club numbers.
Winning six games in a row -- nine out of the last ten -- up to last Saturday and returning to the rankings helped restore some order to things, but as I said in Saturday's game recap, the Hokies gave all that back, and perhaps more, by losing to Duke at home. It is a humbling storyline expressed in 14 characters: Duke 13, VT 10.
I had already seen the questions and comments coming, even before Saturday's game, even while the Hokies were winning. Criticism of Shane Beamer for not settling on one running back. Comments that Auburn's offense, ranked #115 under Loeffler last year, is now a top 20 offense (#13 this week), with largely the same group of players. And so on.
When you lose to Duke, those questions surface with more volume. I've already seen a faction of message board posters, largely silent during the winning streak, suddenly resurface after Saturday's loss. It has all served to amp up the Misery Index of Hokie fans.
Where do I stand on all the major issues and questions? I'll tell you in the closing to this article, but first, let's talk about the ACC Coastal race.
The ACC Coastal Race
Here are the top five teams in the Coastal race -- Virginia (0-4) and UNC (1-3) are excluded, by virtue of their suckiness -- and their ACC records:
- Miami (3-0)
- VT (3-1, loss to Duke)
- GT (4-2, losses to VT and Miami)
- Duke (2-2, losses to GT and Pitt)
- Pitt (2-2, losses to VT and FSU)
I think the Coastal winner will have two losses, at most. I don't think a three-loss team will win the division.
You can eliminate GT, Duke, and Pittsburgh, because I don't think any of them will win out in the conference. GT has to play at Clemson (and they have losses to VT and Miami anyway), Duke has to play Miami (who I think will beat them), and Pitt has to play at GT and against Miami.
We're still down to VT vs. Miami for the Coastal crown, even after the nasty loss to Duke. Virginia Tech can even lose at BC this weekend, and still win the Coastal, by beating Miami, because the Canes will almost surely suffer a loss to FSU this weekend. A loss to VT would then give the Canes two losses in conference, including the tie breaker to VT. (That scenario requires the Hokies to finish out with wins over Maryland and UVa, and I'll admit it: I'm banking on that.)
The loss to Duke is damaging to the Hokies' psyche, and it increases the Misery Index, but it doesn't greatly alter the ACC Coastal race. Not yet, anyway, and not even if VT loses to BC this coming weekend. It does, however, reduce VT's already thin margin for error.
[caption id="attachment_263107" align="alignnone" width="1200"]
VT lost because of the unis. Pumpkins!
What I Believe
Ready for it? Here it goes. None of this is earth-shaking, but I thought I should put it out there.
If you're wishing the coaching staff would bench Logan Thomas and put in Mark Leal, your wish isn't going to be granted. Stop torturing yourself. This program has been committed to Logan Thomas as its starting QB for 35 games now. What in the world makes you think they would even consider changing this, with four regular season games left in his career? Not to mention that it takes their best running threat off the field, which is not going to happen with a running game this tepid.
This team can beat anyone but FSU, and can lose to anyone but Virginia (including, as we've seen, Duke). The rest of the season could be anything from a 4-0 finish followed by a loss to FSU in Charlotte, to a 1-3 finish with a season-ending win over Virginia, or anything in between. I thought so before the Duke game, and I still think so after the Duke game.
This team is hurting at running back, and I don't mean injuries. Tech's tailbacks don't make people miss, they don't break tackles, and when they're hit, they go down right there, right away. There's no jump cuts, no yards after first contact, and no falling forward after the hit. I'm not sure this is going to get better with age and experience, either. It may take an infusion of new running backs.
Scot Loeffler can fix the offense. But he can't fix it this year, and maybe not even next. His QB is too erratic, he doesn't have a quality running back he can count on, his tight ends can't block, and his offensive line can't get a consistent push. It could take until 2015 to get an offense on the field that can average 400+ yards a game, last seen in the 2011 season.
... but I'll admit to losing some confidence on that last one. The fact that Auburn is #13 in the nation in total offense this year after being #115 last year makes me scratch my chin and think, "Hmmm." Yes, that was a program in freefall, and yes, Loeffler's starting QB last year is now a safety, but ... hmmm. If VT is a top-50 offense in 2015 (or heck, 2014), then we'll know that the Auburn situation was just too toxic. If VT is still a bottom-30 offense in 2015, then we'll know that his year in Auburn might have been a sign, not an anomaly. But we won't know until then with any certainty.
Frank Beamer carries more responsibility for the state of this offense than anyone else, and it's not even close. And the reason why is recruiting. You can blame Stinespring's game planning and play calling for poor offensive performance, and you can blame Curt Newsome for the state of the offensive line, but ultimate responsibility lies with the Big Whistle. He failed to identify the oncoming talent issues that have come home to roost, and he failed to hold his staff accountable for getting the right kinds of players -- and enough of them -- into the program. It's one thing to get out of the way and let your guys work, but it's another to pay attention and make sure the program is being properly taken care of via recruiting. I think Frank failed to do that in the last five years on the offensive side of the ball.
Frank Beamer will coach three more seasons: 2014-2016. He's got a staff. He's got his health. He's got a contract (at the moment) that runs through 2016. And he's got the 2016 Battle at Bristol to look forward to. And I think that's it. Till then, what you see is what you get, and it's a race against time to recruit better players, rebuild the team, and send him out a winner. What does "winner" mean? Well, I don't think Virginia Tech will sniff an undefeated season in those years, and with Jameis Winston and the FSU juggernaut firmly in place, just winning the ACC would be an accomplishment. But the goal is to return the program to ten wins a season, keep beating Virginia, and leave things in good shape for the next coach. Long term, Virginia Tech should aim higher, but in the short term, that's how it's going to be.
In Closing
This has been a weird article, I know, but I just wanted to get some things off my chest, not really break down the Duke game. I'd rather just forget about it, though that will be impossible.
After suffering a loss like this one, players and coaches are always eager to put it behind them and get to the next game. I'm the same way; I desperately want to get to this Saturday, and see the team, especially Logan, play better against Boston College, win, and set up a big game with the Canes on November 9th.
I still think what I said last week, that this is the best time of year, and it goes too fast. Even when Duke spoils it by beating you at home, it's still fun to be in the hunt and look forward to the next game. And for this team, every game is big. None of them are gimmes.