The subject of Notre Dame sure does bring up a lot of emotion from Hokie fans.
That's understandable. It brings up a lot of emotion from a lot of fan bases. There are the usual reasons that college fan bases around the country dislike Notre Dame: The college athletics world kowtows to the Domers too much, Notre Dame has an overinflated sense of their own football worth in the modern market place, NBC pays them too much money, etc.
But for many Hokies, their dislike of Notre Dame is also personal. Not "personal" by the strictest definition of the word, but "personal" because of the history between Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, or as a matter of fact, the lack thereof.
Virginia Tech hasn't played Notre Dame much at all in college athletics' two marquee sports, football and men's basketball. Up until the year 2000, in the first 108 years of Virginia Tech football and the first 92 years of Virginia Tech basketball, the Hokies played Notre Dame just that once. You might remember it: in 1973, the Hokies beat the Fighting Irish in the NIT championship game, back when the NIT meant something.
And that meeting happened because the Hokies played their way into it, not because Notre Dame scheduled them.
When the 21st century dawned, the Hokies finally achieved full membership in the Big East Conference, putting them in the same 14-team basketball league as Notre Dame.
In Virginia Tech's four years of Big East membership, they played Notre Dame just three times in men's basketball. Here's how many times the Hokies played all 13 of the other Big East basketball schools in those four years:
- 7 times: BC, UConn, Miami, Providence, St. John's, Villanova
- 5 times: WVU
- 4 times: Georgetown, Pittsburgh (once in the BE Tourney), Rutgers (once in the BE Tourney)
- 3 times: Notre Dame, Syracuse (never in Blacksburg)
- 2 times: Seton Hall
The lack of balance in scheduling Big East teams over four years is telling. For some reason, Seton Hall rarely encountered the Hokies in the Big East. Syracuse was protected from having to play the Hokies very often, and never had to stoop so low as to visit Blacksburg. (I'll bet the ACC sends the Orange into Cassell). And Notre Dame seemed to be avoiding VT, though to their credit, they visited Blacksburg twice in the three-game Big East series.
In football, Notre Dame has played every one of their 14 future ACC mates at least once ... except for Virginia Tech, whom they have never played.
It's as if Notre Dame thinks they're too good for Virginia Tech. They seem to be avoiding the Hokies.
And we all remember the 2000 BCS bowl games, when teams ranked #1-#7 in the BCS rankings went to BCS bowl games ... except for #5 Virginia Tech. The Hokies were passed over by the Fiesta Bowl for #11 Notre Dame. The Irish were obliterated by #6 Oregon State, 41-9.
More history: In 1994, the Big East voted on admitting West Virginia, Rutgers, Temple and Virginia Tech. WVU and Rutgers made it in, but Temple and VT were left out. The Big East declared a five-year moratorium on expansion ... only to admit Notre Dame for all sports but football, within months of the "moratorium."
Throughout Virginia Tech's athletic history, the message has been clear: Virginia Tech isn't good enough for Notre Dame. The message comes from Notre Dame, who won't consider playing the Hokies in football, and who avoid them in basketball. The message comes from the bowl games, who passed over a much higher-ranked VT team, led by the electric Michael Vick, to award a Fiesta Bowl bid to a Notre Dame team that was 9-2 but undeserving. The message came from Virginia Tech's own conference, which rejected the Hokies for full membership that would have made perfect sense, only to admit Notre Dame for a partial membership that turned an already out-of-balance conference into even more of a mish-mash.
Those are just some of the reasons Virginia Tech fans get emotional about the subject of Notre Dame. But those historical slights and injuries don't have anything to do with evaluating the ACC's deal with Notre Dame. So don't let them cloud your judgment.
Forget About the Future
So forget about the past, and I also advise to not think about what this means for the future. A lot of people think that this partial membership deal with Notre Dame is a great thing, because it means the Irish will join the ACC for football "in 2 or 3 years. If not then, at some point."
Not necessarily. I think that as long as the playoffs have an at-large component to them, Notre Dame will want to stay independent.
And I expect the playoffs to always have an at-large component to them. Every other NCAA tournament does. They take conference champions, yes, but they fill out the field with at-large bids. Why would a Division 1-A football playoff, whether it's run by the NCAA or the BCS, not have at-large bids? At-large bids provide all sorts of flexibility and solve all kinds of problems.
So I don't think we'll ever see a future where only conference champions make the playoffs. A lot of people think that, and I used to think it as well, but then I had the epiphany described in the previous paragraph.
Another prevailing opinion is that Notre Dame will need to join a conference, because they can no longer make as much TV money on their own. Notre Dame's sweet deal with NBC for their football games is becoming less valuable than the average cut for a member of one of the "power five" conferences. ND's deal, which runs through 2015, pays reportedly $15 million a year. Under the ACC's new contract with ABC/ESPN, ACC schools will earn an average of $17 million a year. Other conferences -- the SEC, Big Ten, etc. -- make more, and in some cases, lots more.
Contrast this with Notre Dame's original 1991 NBC deal, which paid $8 million per year at a time when entire conferences were earning just $10-$15 million a year. The Notre Dame deal with NBC isn't the sweetheart of a deal that it used to be.
When ND renegotiates their deal, a popular theory is that it will be for less than $15 million a year, putting the Irish squarely behind schools that belong to the power conferences, "forcing" the Irish to join a football conference to keep up.
I'm not sure I buy that theory. I think Notre Dame prizes their independence more than the money. We're talking about a football program that brings in over $55 million in revenue, even with the TV contract worth "just" $15 million a year. We're talking about a university that ranks 14th in the nation in endowment, with $6.26 billion.
Everyone's got their theories about what matters to Notre Dame, but I think what matters more than the money is being able to schedule who they want, when they want. Notre Dame dictates the days and times of their games, not NBC. Notre Dame plays on Saturday, not Thursday or Friday or Labor Day night. If they join a conference for football, they give up that independence, which is very important to them.
So, I'm just not convinced that Notre Dame will join the ACC football. They might, and there are very good reasons why they might. I'm just playing devil's advocate and saying it's not a foregone conclusion.
Forget about the past, assume nothing about the future, and evaluate the deal on its own merits, right here and now.
What is Gained, and What is Lost
The ACC gains a lot with this deal, and loses little. Let's go over the gains first:
Increased television value: The ACC will renegotiate its contract with ABC/ESPN, and estimates are that the per-school take will increase by $1 million to $2 million per year.
Stability: The new $50 million buyout means it's much more unlikely that any school, or even any conference, will be willing to pay that buyout. It's not impossible -- $5 million buyouts used to sound like a lot, but schools are now paying them with regularity as they shift around -- but it's unlikely.
Better non-BCS bowl tie-ins: Notre Dame will become part of the ACC's non-BCS bowl pool, allowing bowls to pick them. This will lead to better tie-ins (in theory).
The chance to play Notre Dame in football: Aw, come on, VT was never going to get to play Notre Dame! Now, the Hokies will definitely go to South Bend at some point, and the Irish might come to Blacksburg (if VT doesn't sell the game to FedExField or Charlotte, or commit some other such crime against Hokie humanity).
The inside track on landing ND for full membership: If Notre Dame ever joins a conference for football, they won't be going to the Big Ten, and they won't be going to the Big 12. They'll be joining the ACC ... unless a conference is willing to pay that huge buyout, which would be pretty cool, too. I'd cash a $50 million check from the Big Ten, and that one wouldn't be negotiated down.
What does the ACC lose in the deal?
A bowl slot: Notre Dame is now part of the ACC's non-Orange Bowl tie-ins, and can be selected instead of an ACC team. When this happens, it will suck for the ACC team passed over. There's no getting around that. Hopefully, better bowl tie-ins will cancel out the sting.
Bowl revenue: From what I can tell, Notre Dame will share equally in ACC bowl revenue, so they'll get a 1/15th slice of the non-BCS bowl pie. (At least, that's what Aaron McFarling wrote.) Each ACC school is therefore taking a little cut in bowl revenue. If the tie-ins (and money from bowls improve), this will be canceled out. If not, it's canceled out by the increased TV value, anyway.
A little bit of dignity: Can't get around this one. By accepting ND as a partial member, the ACC has done something Tranghese-tastic. This smacks of the Big East, of taking what ND will give because you think it will help you survive.
But comparing the ACC to the Big East is silly. The Big East never asked for scheduling considerations, and the Big East had a lot of other faults: varying degrees of membership, unequal revenue sharing, unequal scheduling (just look at the stats above about whom VT played), infighting, you name it.
The ACC's inclusion of Notre Dame smacks more of a power play than it does of Big East-like desperation. And if you're worried about ND's special deal leading to other ACC schools wanting special deals, don't. Here's an exchange from yesterday between John Swofford and a reporter:
Reporter: Are you worried about Notre Dame's special deal for football leading to other conference members wanting special deals, like for example, Duke and North Carolina for basketball?
Swofford: No.