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mjfhokie
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9 game schedule hurts the SEC

Interesting article on the math of 9 games versus 8 games in a schedule. A probability comparison of playing an additional SEC team was done and simply adding a 50-50 game to replace a 90-10 game substantially reduced percentage chance of top record. Two key items: First, adding another SEC game increases strength of schedule - especially since most SEC schools have 3 or 4 "easy" games on their schedule. Add one 50-50 game to each team's schedule makes a 9 win season almost half as likely. Second, introducing a 9th game will reduce the number of teams at .500 or above (and decrease the number of teams with only 3 SEC losses). I looked at last year's SEC standing and while there was only one .500 team (4-4), there were six 5-3 teams. Assuming that 4 losses is the maximum number of losses for an SEC team to make the playoff (i.e. Alabama/ LSU and USC were all 9-4 last year & just out of the playoff), a 9th game (on average) would put three more teams on the bubble with no room for error against non-conference foes. Of course, this could be addressed with taking into account SOS for non-conference games - but I seen no reason for SEC to push for that.
Link: 9 game versus 8 game schedule hurts SEC -
Posted: 06/02/2025 at 10:40 AM ET
(In response to this post by Stech)

Thread Replies (87)

Full Thread →
Not just me saying it, Ross Dellenger 5+11 gaining if Selection Criteria ⬆️
Stech • 06/01/25 05:07 PM ET
9 game schedule hurts the SEC ◄
mjfhokie • 06/02/25 10:40 AM ET
I’ll reframe this. SEC wants BIG money but with fewer games
HokieAl • 06/02/25 11:08 AM ET
What do you expect? The SEC is like a spoiled child that has been given-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 11:29 AM ET
Playing 9 conference games vs. 8 would hurt ANYBODY, not just the SEC.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 10:54 AM ET
It'll only hurt them if they don't improve SOS points (high ranked wins)!
Stech • 06/02/25 10:51 AM ET
Question, on your point:
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 11:01 AM ET
Note Penn States OOC schedule this year, and
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 11:42 AM ET
Schedule highly ranked programs and you get a say in that, VT should act
Stech • 06/02/25 11:11 AM ET
The ACC is using ND ...
TerryD • 06/02/25 01:57 PM ET
I am not blaming ND, I am blaming the ACC, we just simply lack leadership
Stech • 06/02/25 04:04 PM ET
Has the ACC ever had quality leadership?**
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 04:08 PM ET
For Basketball and Olympic sports, yes, for football....**
Stech • 06/03/25 12:39 AM ET
VT can't make Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU schedule home and homes.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 11:12 AM ET
It isn't difficult to improve upon Liberty, JMU, ODU and Wofford, et al.
Femoyer Hokie • 06/02/25 04:52 PM ET
Agree 100%. Not the point of my post, tho.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 09:14 AM ET
I'm from the school of thought that a VT scheduling
Big12 guy • 06/03/25 11:19 AM ET
Other than money, that’s correct.
RJHokie • 06/02/25 05:12 PM ET
We don't need schools like that. Schedule WVU and other Big12 schools.
Femoyer Hokie • 06/02/25 05:29 PM ET
Everyone should be sick of the "VT is operating in abject poverty, and-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 09:17 AM ET
Agree.
RJHokie • 06/02/25 05:36 PM ET
Likely, all of them. **
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 05:57 PM ET
You just mentioned teams that we have played, but stop making excuses.
Stech • 06/02/25 11:21 AM ET
He mentioned home and homes
HokieAl • 06/02/25 11:37 AM ET
So play some neutral site, but we can OOC ACC games and B12 games, it's not
Stech • 06/02/25 01:43 PM ET
I didn't say VT can't improve its schedule. The schedule is doo doo.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 11:27 AM ET
Since most ACC schools, and probably all B12 schools can
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 11:53 AM ET
While I like your idea because it would be fun to see college football
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 12:16 PM ET
Do the home games by conference, not by the school. **
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 12:29 PM ET
Given the way the media contracts are written, I don't think the networks
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 01:12 PM ET
Year to year it would be the top schools playing
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 01:22 PM ET
It matters what stadium the game is played in unless the conferences
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 01:40 PM ET
I don't think a comparison to basketball works. Also, you
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 01:43 PM ET
Except it won't be neutral because schools have already been adjusting
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 02:22 PM ET
Maybe VT adjusts their pricing, others do not. **
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 02:45 PM ET
I suspect most schools adjust their pricing at some level. Particularly if
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 03:41 PM ET
The G5's do for sure. **
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 04:19 PM ET
I would be surprised if there is any DI-FBS school who sticks with their
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 04:30 PM ET
No doubt with the stadiums that are not sold
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 04:39 PM ET
You buy VT season tickets in a package, but you can rest assured that-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 09:20 AM ET
Interesting. Do you think that VT would fill their stadium no matter
Big12 guy • 06/03/25 09:33 AM ET
The easy answer is no. Because they haven't been selling out every game.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 09:46 AM ET
Well, the aftermarket for KU was me, or others giving
Big12 guy • 06/03/25 10:09 AM ET
Yes. The big difference at VT is VT FB sucks now and it's not exciting.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 10:19 AM ET
I followed VT back in the Big East days pretty closely. Back then, I
Big12 guy • 06/03/25 10:28 AM ET
The prime Big East Football Conference days were on another level.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 10:48 AM ET
I was there, and I was watching. **
Big12 guy • 06/03/25 11:00 AM ET
I think this would be great for both conferences.**
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 12:06 PM ET
This means strength of schedule will be a key selection factor
HokieAl • 06/01/25 10:59 PM ET
Bingo! The ACC and the Big 12 may receive a single bid in most years.**
RandomAsianGuy • 06/02/25 12:18 PM ET
If this is the way, and that's fine, then ACC and Big 12 should demand-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 09:56 AM ET
The ACC will not be able to "legislate" the inherent
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 12:01 PM ET
If everyone agrees on objective criteria, that begins application in Nov.-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 12:09 PM ET
Agree, it’s progress, but not perfect.**
Stech • 06/02/25 06:47 AM ET
Agree about the basketball - it's the one thing about men's college BBall
VPI_1998 • 06/02/25 05:38 AM ET
Rankings criteria should be about the rankings after the season is over,
Stech • 06/02/25 07:44 AM ET
A 6-4-6 will solve everyone's concerns.
Maroon Baboon • 06/01/25 05:30 PM ET
If they want to do play in games so badly, I don't know why everyone can't-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 10:02 AM ET
I see the play-in games as OUTSIDE of the conference, this would include ND
Maroon Baboon • 06/02/25 10:29 AM ET
If they're going to do that, why not just expand the CFP field?
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 10:32 AM ET
We are effectively talking about the same thing. However, I form it the way
Maroon Baboon • 06/02/25 10:42 AM ET
Not if the P conferences get more money, not less. Remember, the
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 12:42 PM ET
I don't disagree with you, but the conferences (read: SEC) isn't ready to
Maroon Baboon • 06/02/25 01:14 PM ET
Agree. Disney/FOX/CBS/NBC don't care what you call a game, they care about-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 01:05 PM ET
Realistically the P2 won’t take that few bids, at this point 5+11 is the
Stech • 06/01/25 05:41 PM ET
In the scenario, the P2 could win 10 of the 16 bids.
Maroon Baboon • 06/01/25 07:30 PM ET
The B1G is the one heavy on 8 Automatic Bids for P2, but SEC needs 9 Conf
Stech • 06/02/25 07:27 AM ET
A WVU series should be home-home-neutral. Not neutral every year.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 10:07 AM ET
Neutral games suck unless it's a one off, or Bristol. **
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 12:45 PM ET
They have their utility, but a septic, neutral site game is never going-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 01:04 PM ET
Based on that criteria, it would be interesting to see if the Red River
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 01:22 PM ET
I think so, don't you?
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 01:26 PM ET
I'm not sure. At least I think it is possible any improvement may be
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 01:48 PM ET
I meant the in-person experience, as opposed to watching on TV.
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 02:30 PM ET
I attended the USC game at FedEx and I am not sure my experience would have
VTHokie2000 • 06/02/25 03:46 PM ET
Well, cool, I'm glad you had a great time!
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/03/25 09:22 AM ET
What I enjoyed most about the game is it gave Hokie fans a taste of what
VTHokie2000 • 06/04/25 01:40 PM ET
They have to justify their money grab of the playoffs. they can't
Big12 guy • 06/01/25 08:23 PM ET
5-11 is much better than 4-4-2-2-1. But again we need to watch the B10.**
RandomAsianGuy • 06/01/25 05:14 PM ET
Yeah, but B1G has indicated if the SEC goes to 9 Conference games, they are
Stech • 06/01/25 05:17 PM ET
Maybe. But I don’t trust the B10. They may come up with a new lame reason. **
RandomAsianGuy • 06/01/25 10:44 PM ET
It’s hard to trust either Power Ego Conferences, understandable.**
Stech • 06/02/25 06:46 AM ET
The SEC wants 5+11 and to stay at 8 games. Not sure the B1G is going to
Maroon Baboon • 06/01/25 05:23 PM ET
It’s all changing, they will likely go to 9 with highest ranked wins
Stech • 06/01/25 05:27 PM ET
It's the easiest way for the SEC to get more teams into the playoff
VPI_1998 • 06/02/25 05:49 AM ET
This is why the ACC and Big 12 should call their bluff and insist upon-
Baltimore_Hokie • 06/02/25 10:14 AM ET
This is partially true. The whole idea of going
Big12 guy • 06/02/25 07:13 AM ET
They will work it for sure, but 8 automatic bids of 16 is despicable!**
Stech • 06/02/25 06:58 AM ET