Okay, here's some chit.
Go against Ortiz at your own risk. Yesterday, Irad (Renegade) and Jose (Golden Tempo) won 8 of the 11 races. The brothers are special jockeys.
Other Stuff:
Renegade and Further Ado had the most impressive stakes wins leading up to the Derby.
Commandment seems to know how to navigate a crowd for a tough win.
So Happy has Karma on his side. Tough trainer story. The greatest modern jockey (Mike Smith).
I'm picking Renegade (despite the cursed post position*), Emerging Market, and Chief Wallabee for no solid reason.
The top 7/8 horses all stand a decent chance of winning. Plus, I guarantee that at least one or two longer-shots will be right in the mix. That's why I also like a horse like Golden Tempo and Incredibolt (VA Derby winner).
Betting on the Kentucky Derby is nothing more than a crapshoot. The horses are the best. The trainers are the best. The jockeys are the best. This year, the overall field is strong.
* #1 post position-- Rarely wins. However, Churchill Downs moved their starting gates out from the rail in 2019/20. Now the #1 post horse has a better and more fair chance to enter the race on their own terms.
** Edited by Newt at 5/2/2026, 6:19:14 PM
Thread Replies (25)
No Derby chitchat today?
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 02, 2026 at 10:53 AM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/02/26 10:53 AM ET
My wife and I have been watching together for 37 years.
-- VaTechie
May 03, 2026 at 12:23 AM ET
VaTechie
•
05/03/26 12:23 AM ET
That was a great race**
-- turkeywinghokie
May 02, 2026 at 07:27 PM ET
turkeywinghokie
•
05/02/26 07:27 PM ET
I thought I heard that Golden Tempo had finished last or
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 03, 2026 at 07:52 AM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/03/26 07:52 AM ET
Actually, he had only race three times. Finished in the money all three.
-- Newt
May 03, 2026 at 10:02 AM ET
Newt
•
05/03/26 10:02 AM ET
Maybe they were already talking about another horse. D’oh.
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 03, 2026 at 10:16 AM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/03/26 10:16 AM ET
Buddy and I were texting that anybody that won the trifecta was $$$$$**
-- turkeywinghokie
May 02, 2026 at 11:32 PM ET
turkeywinghokie
•
05/02/26 11:32 PM ET
^^^perennial best pre-race tout^^^ !!**
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 02, 2026 at 06:45 PM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/02/26 06:45 PM ET
So found out after he retired last year that I worked with his brother
-- turkeywinghokie
May 02, 2026 at 05:35 PM ET
turkeywinghokie
•
05/02/26 05:35 PM ET
…box the exacta on Prickly Pete and Snoopy**
-- chumley
May 02, 2026 at 01:26 PM ET
chumley
•
05/02/26 01:26 PM ET
The Puma scratched. Leg swole up.**
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 02, 2026 at 02:00 PM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/02/26 02:00 PM ET
How about some F1 Sprint chat?
-- EDGEMAN
May 02, 2026 at 12:34 PM ET
EDGEMAN
•
05/02/26 12:34 PM ET
Can’t tell if this is a McLaren resurgence, a Mercedes hiccup, a…
-- Spud
May 02, 2026 at 12:56 PM ET
Spud
•
05/02/26 12:56 PM ET
I think it's "all of the above."
-- EDGEMAN
May 02, 2026 at 01:50 PM ET
EDGEMAN
•
05/02/26 01:50 PM ET
(ahem) OP is the Kentucky Derby. (ahem)**
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 02, 2026 at 01:33 PM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/02/26 01:33 PM ET
Horses? We can’t afford to talk about no horses you dummy. Send over a…
-- Spud
May 02, 2026 at 02:54 PM ET
Spud
•
05/02/26 02:54 PM ET
We're all outta goofy hats**
-- astrohokie
May 02, 2026 at 10:55 AM ET
astrohokie
•
05/02/26 10:55 AM ET
We have a healthy mint crop in the yard (for tea brewing) but
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 02, 2026 at 10:58 AM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/02/26 10:58 AM ET
WHAT!!! The ABC store ran out???**
-- UTPr0sim
May 02, 2026 at 11:40 AM ET
UTPr0sim
•
05/02/26 11:40 AM ET
For all I know, yes.**
-- PhotoHokieNC
May 02, 2026 at 11:46 AM ET
PhotoHokieNC
•
05/02/26 11:46 AM ET