2005-06 Basketball Game Preview: Virginia Tech vs. #2 Duke

Info Center

TSL Roster Card (PDF format; to read it, you'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader.)

Cassell Coliseum Seating Chart

2005-06 VT Roster

Duke Links Official Site Duke Bask. Report DBR Msg Bd Rivals Site Rivals Msg Bd Insiders Site Insiders Msg Bd News & Obs. Herald-Sun Charlotte Obs. W-S Journal USA Today

HokieSports.com Links

Game Notes (PDF)

Radio Stations

Live Stats

TheACC.com Links

Men's Basketball Home

Men's BB Statistics

Virginia Tech (10-8, 0-5 ACC) at #2 Duke (17-1, 5-0 ACC)

Thursday, January 26th, 2006, 7:00 pm

TV: ESPN

Special Preview Items:

• Click here for TSL's VT/Duke roster card (PDF format)

Five games into their sophomore season in the ACC, the Virginia Tech men’s basketball team finds itself at 0-5 in league play and dead last in the conference. This is the way things were supposed to be last year when the Hokies finished 8-8 in the ACC and near the top of the conference standings. Nothing has gone right for Tech this year. They’ve suffered injuries, illnesses, dunks are popping back out of the nets, and countless other things have gone wrong. Last year it was the Hokies who won a lot of close games, and the karma is coming full circle this season. But on Thursday night, VT has a chance to get things turned around in a big way when #2 Duke visits Blacksburg.

With the Hokies beating Duke last season, and playing them so tough in Durham back in December, it’s clearly obvious that Virginia Tech has the recipe to defeat the Blue Devils. Duke is a fundamentally sound basketball team with a tremendous inside presence in Shelden Williams and a great outside shooter in J.J. Redick. That is enough to get a team a lot of wins, but the Blue Devils are not a complete team. There is an obvious lack of quickness and athleticism on the Duke roster, and the Hokies have been quick to take advantage of that the past two games.

Duke is not as deep as one would assume a team ranked #1 for most of the season would be. Duke’s five starters have all played 31 minutes or more the last three games. That stat goes back four games for four of the starters, and even further for three of them. There are major bench concerns for the Blue Devils, who are a little banged up right now, as are the Hokies.

Josh McRoberts was a starter at power forward earlier in the season, but he has been benched in favor of Lee Melchionni. Melchionni (6-6, 205) is a wing forward, so it looks like the Blue Devils have decided to go with a smaller lineup. They will spread the floor and get the ball inside to Shelden Williams, who will either take the shot or look to kick it back out to an open man if he is double teamed.

Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, Melchionni was banged up in the loss to Georgetown on Saturday with an ankle injury. He is expected to play on Thursday night, but he will not be 100%. This is a favorable matchup for Tech power forward Deron Washington, who can use his much superior quickness and athleticism to his advantage. Washington would already have a major advantage in athleticism, and Melchionni’s ankle injury will only make it worse for Duke.

Duke will also likely be without guard DeMarcus Nelson, their best perimeter defender. Nelson is an excellent on-ball defender who has missed most of the season with injuries, and he did not play against the Hokies back in December.

Because Melchionni will likely be in the starting lineup, Duke does not hold the size advantage over the Hokies that most teams possess.

The Blue Devils have a slight weight advantage on the inside, but the VT guards are bigger than the Duke backcourt, and the Hokies are taller than Duke at four of the five positions. Look for Tech to try to get their hands in the passing lanes and force turnovers, and look for them to have some success.

With no size disadvantage, as well as superior athleticism, VT has been able to have a rebounding advantage on the Blue Devils in the last two meetings. The Hokies outrebounded Duke 45-27 in Cassell Coliseum last season and 34-30 earlier this season. Even in the 100-65 loss to Duke at Cameron last season, the Blue Devils only held a 42-37 advantage on the boards. Duke is next-to-last in the ACC with a rebounding margin of -1.1. In ACC play only, Duke has a rebounding margin of -5.4.

One disadvantage the Hokies could have is the sprained ankle Jamon Gordon suffered at the start of the second half against Maryland. However, Gordon returned to the game with under ten minutes left and scored nine points down the stretch. Gordon’s ability to penetrate into the lane is a big part of Virginia Tech’s chances to defeat Duke, so his injury is a concern. Also, look for another player to draw the responsibility of guarding J.J. Redick. Markus Sailes, 6-5, 210, will likely spend a lot of time with Redick when Sailes comes off the bench.

From a statistics standpoint, the most compelling matchup in this game is between Coleman Collins and Shelden Williams. They both had monster games back in December, with Collins scoring 25 points and grabbing eight rebounds. Williams had 21 points and 19 rebounds. In Virginia Tech’s 67-65 victory in Cassell Coliseum last year, Collins had 14 points and 18 rebounds, while Williams had 16 points and seven rebounds.

Collins always gives Williams trouble for a couple of reasons. Number one, the Tech guards are successful in getting into the lane against the Duke guards. If Shelden Williams goes over to help, then Collins is either left open for a shot or is free to crash the offensive glass. Also, Williams is a very good face up defender, but he struggles at times when an offensive player tries to take him off the dribble. That is Collins’ strength, as he is a natural power forward rather than a center.

The Blue Devils have struggled defensively the last three games. They allowed Clemson to shoot 54.1% from the field, while NC State managed 51.9%. Georgetown completely crushed Duke’s defense, shooting 61.5%.

Of course, Duke has a major advantage as well. They can shoot the ball better than the Hokies. Duke is shooting 51.3% for the season, and 48.7% in ACC play. The Hokies shoot 45.6%, and just 43.5% in conference games. But Tech did shoot 51.6% earlier this season against the Blue Devils, mostly because they got so many open looks underneath thanks to their ability to penetrate against the Duke backcourt.

The Virginia Tech defense has been stout all season. They are allowing just 61.6 points per game, which is tops in the ACC. No team has shot 50% or more against the Hokies all season.

With 1.6 seconds to go in the game back on December 4th, I was pretty excited for two reasons. Number one, the Hokies were about to beat the #1 team in the country, the most storied program in basketball, on the road. And number two, in the preview I wrote before the game, I stated that VT would need to score 75 points to have a chance to beat Duke. Collins’ tip-in with 1.6 seconds to go made it 75-74 VT. Sean Dockery’s prayer from near half court spoiled Tech’s upset and my prediction, but the same points stand for this game. The Hokies match up with Duke very well. Raise your hand if you would be shocked if the Hokies won this game? I wouldn’t. It remains to be seen if they will.