The chance that Virginia Tech baseball will travel approximately 2,400 miles to the Los Angeles Regional and conquer some combination of No. 1 overall seed UCLA, No. 3 seed Cal Poly and No. 4 Saint Mary’s is incredibly slim.
DraftKings puts those odds at +1200, the worst of any ACC team to advance by a wide margin. PEARatings, an advanced college baseball ratings and metrics website, gives the Hokies a 4.5 percent chance to advance, the worst of any No. 2 seed in the nation, and lower than Cal Poly’s 4.7 percent odds.
However, there aren’t many teams more accustomed to playing from behind than Tech. In fact, half of its wins this year have been in comeback fashion.
“I’ve never seen this on a team I’ve ever been on,” Hokies infielder Ethan Ball said. “When we get punched in the gut, we know how to deal with things when you usually see people roll over. This team is pretty special.”
Before the Hokies (30-24) can even think about downing the Bruins (51-6) — 88.4 percent chance to advance according to PEARatings — they must defeat the Big West champion Mustangs (36-22) on Friday at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN+).
Regionals are double elimination with a winner’s and a loser’s bracket. The regional final is slated for a 9 p.m. ET first pitch on Sunday, May 31. Here’s a glimpse:
Tech is -125 to beat Cal Poly (-105) — a comfortable enough matchup for postseason play but certainly not a shoo-in. The Mustangs are located in San Luis Obispo, about as far from Jackie Robinson Stadium as Tech is from Chapel Hill.
They’ll have a home-team advantage — though the higher-seeded Hokies will technically pitch second — and lead the nation in doubles (152) while ranking No. 7 in hits (629).
Higher up the seeding, UCLA stands as an absurdly good team. If anyone eliminates the Bruins in Los Angeles, it will be the first time they’ve lost a weekend this year — something no other Division I team can claim. No other school has 50 wins, and none have a better team ERA (3.27). They are “only” 27th nationally in runs per game, but still the No. 1 overall program because they score 8.4 runs per game while allowing just 3.8.
Whatever your definition of underdog, the Hokies are about three steps above it.
However, they’ve gotten used to that role, playing with low postseason odds throughout the second half of the season. Or when they were 16-18 and 7-11 in conference in April. Or back in February, when they sat 8-9 and 1-4.
“These guys have done a very good job of staying tough and putting themselves in the position to be a postseason team,” Szefc said. “Which, if you went back to mid‑April, you might not have thought that was going to be the case.”
Really, though, the Hokies have been underdogs since before they played a single game.
Outgoing athletic director Whit Babcock told reporters earlier this month that Szefc’s 2026 season resources included 16 scholarships. That will increase to 22 next year, but the bulk of ACC baseball programs — especially the other eight teams that are in the NCAA Tournament — are already operating at that point, if not substantially above it.
Public sourcing is sparse, but Miami reported 21 baseball scholarships for the 2026 season. Florida State is “around” 25. NC State and Virginia are in that ballpark, too, while Clemson and North Carolina are thought to be at, or near, the fully funded total of 34 scholarships.
The Tigers are the only team from that group that did not make the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Boston College is the ACC’s lone school in the postseason for which scholarship information could not be found, but its athletic department isn’t known for supreme resources.
Those three teams fudge the idea that money is everything, though the Eagles and Hokies have proved it more positively than Clemson.
What goes into building an NCAA Tournament team with fewer resources than the rest of your conference?
“You have to make the best decisions you can as far as putting the team together over the summer months with the resources that have been given to you,” Szefc said. “Understand, the months of June and July over the last two years, you’re not going to the beach and drinking cold drinks. Those two months are working. Those two months are as hard as any other month [during the season].
“You have to win the game on paper before you can win the game in person. That’s where we try to take what we have, try to get the right guys in place. At least, what we think. Really, you’re not always going to hit it right, but you try to hit it right as much as you can, and instruct and coach the best you can.”
The Hokies are a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, as are teams like Miami and Wake Forest. The tournament committee believed they put together a top-32 resume in the nation, which says a fair amount about how much the coaching staff got right.
“Making the tournament gives you a good feeling of accomplishment beyond whatever you’re getting paid,” Szefc said. “It’s gotten to be more and more difficult to grab one of those berths.”
Szefc recognized that he coaches an ACC team that is better resourced than much of Division I baseball. However, in Tech’s case, that still means competing in a conference against programs with even greater financial backing.
“I do think teams that play in Power Four leagues get a little more benefit of the doubt,” Szefc said. “But I coached at Marist for seven years, and I understand that the levels are different. … When you’re going through this 30-game ACC season, you’ve got your hands full all the time.
“Playing baseball in the ACC sounds great, and it is great. However, there are an awful lot of challenges to playing in a league like this that maybe other people don’t see or understand.”
Most of those challenges were faced in the offseason, when, before making any additions, the program fired pitching coach Ryan Fecteau and lost pitcher Jake Marciano — now a top arm in the SEC — and three-year star Garrett Michel to the transfer portal.
By the end of the summer, Tech had fashioned the roster that eventually provided a regional lineup, with just four returning players: Ethan Gibson, Henry Cooke, Hudson Lutterman and Nick Locurto. Only Cooke made 40 or more starts in 2025.
Star infielder Clay Grady was meant to be part of that, too, but he fractured his wrist in a preseason scrimmage and has not played since. Ball, a true freshman who committed in 2022, has been the team’s best batter outside of Cooke.
Tech’s limited resources went partly into grabbing key contributing transfers Pete Daniel, Sam Grube, Owen Petrich and Sam Gates — not leaders of their former conferences; rather, more Moneyball-style additions who have grown more accustomed to better competition as the season has progressed.
The pitching staff was in a better place heading into February, returning aces Brett Renfrow and Griffin Stieg, along with key arms like Preston Crowl, Madden Clement, Chase Swift and Logan Eisenreich. They were captained by new analytics-minded pitching coach Doug Willey.
However, as of March 14, when the Hokies were below .500 and 1-4 in the ACC, those arms were allowing 8.5 runs per game. Tech proceeded to drop three of its next four series, falling to 16-18 and 7-11 in the conference.
Tech turned the tables, though, and took four straight ACC series to finish the regular season, while winning every midweek game in between. It split in the conference tournament against Notre Dame and North Carolina, scoring 21 total runs.
According to PEARratings, Tech was only narrowly favored vs. Clemson and Notre Dame over the latter half of its schedule. It’s also still the only ACC team to beat No. 2 Georgia Tech in Atlanta, and it will remain that way even after the College World Series is decided.
The Hokies navigated the 14th-hardest schedule in the nation, according to Warren Nolan. They’ve been underdogs all season, and even before it. Yet, they’ve made the NCAA Tournament, and their super regional hopes are as alive as they’ve ever been.
“It’s clear that these guys have developed into a bunch of winners,” Szefc said after Tech took its fourth straight ACC series to close the regular season. “I don’t think you can argue that fact. Sometimes it’s not pretty, but winners find ways to win.”
What’s another run as underdogs? Szefc beat No. 1 overall seed UCLA as head coach of No. 3 seed Maryland in the 2015 Los Angeles Regional. The Terrapins downed No. 2 seed Ole Miss and the Bruins to stand atop the winner’s bracket, then split two more games with UCLA to leave Los Angeles victorious.
“I know the drill out there,” Szefc said.
Los Angeles Regional Team Previews
Circling back to this year’s UCLA team, the average hitter facing a Bruins pitcher bats .219 with a .659 OPS, while the average UCLA batter owns a .907 OPS. Think those numbers are inflated because the Big Ten is not quite as strong as the SEC or ACC? Perhaps, but the Bruins are 11-1 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 14-1 against those in Quadrant 2.
“UCLA [head coach] John Savage does a really good job with those guys,” Szefc said. “They’re obviously really good. I saw that firsthand when they were in that same tournament with us in Texas.”
The Bruins shared Globe Life Field with the Hokies, No. 23 Tennessee, No. 11 Texas A&M and No. 17 Mississippi State in late February. Tech lost to the Volunteers 3-1, the Aggies 10-0 and the Bulldogs 15-8. The Bruins beat those same teams 12-5, 11-1 and 8-7, respectively.
Right-handed ace Logan Reddemann has been out with injury since April 17. Savage said he’s close, but it would be difficult to piece together a lengthy start after not throwing for well over a month. If he does return, he’s a first-round-type arm with 23 strikeouts in his last 14 innings and a 2.87 ERA.
Outside of Reddemann, right-hander Easton Hawk has been UCLA’s trusty closer, boasting a 1.41 ERA with 14 saves. Left-hander Ian May is a reliever with a 2.08 ERA, while sophomore right-hander Wylan Moss has started in Reddemann’s place and owns a 2.40 ERA with 72 strikeouts across 60 innings. Freshman Zach Strickland and junior Cal Randall are right-handed bullpen arms who’ve combined for 100 strikeouts in 64 ⅓ innings.
Right-handers Angel Cervantes (3.86 ERA) and Landon Stump (4.30) are the Bruins’ other rotation arms.
Their biggest strength is their staff, which totals 560 strikeouts to 193 walks, but right behind the mound is shortstop Roch Cholowsky, the consensus No. 1 overall pick in July’s MLB Draft.
He’s one of the top defenders in the country with a 1.123 OPS on top of that. Cholowsky is one of three Bruins — Will Gasparino (1.073) and Mulivai Levu (1.057) — with an OPS over 1.000, each of whom has 17 or more home runs.
Meanwhile, Cal Poly named a Game 1 starter for Friday’s clash with Virginia Tech in junior right-hander Griffin Naess. He’s 7-4 this season with a 4.24 ERA. In his last postseason start, he went 7.2 innings with 11 strikeouts and no earned runs.
Naess is the Mustangs’ ace, but Tech will not use its own against them. Renfrow has not pitched since May 14, though Szefc said he expects him to appear at some point in Los Angeles. Eisenreich will start Game 1.
If you exclude an all-around strange weekend against UNC Greensboro, the sophomore boasts a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last four appearances. Add 24 strikeouts to five walks over those 16 ⅔ innings — 4 ⅔ of them in postseason play against the Fighting Irish — and he seems ready for a high-stakes start against the Mustangs. Ethan Grim typically serves as a “second starter” behind him.
Saving Renfrow for a possible matchup against the Bruins makes sense, especially because Stieg has not been the same arm he was in victories against the Yellow Jackets, Cavaliers and Hurricanes. The right-hander’s ERA was a deceptively productive 5.60 through April 16, but has ballooned to 16.50 since then.
He has been Tech’s back-against-the-wall arm all year, though, so playing him in a Sunday-like role in Los Angeles wouldn't be surprising. Many regionals are decided simply by what team has the most pitching depth, and Tech feels like it has a fourth starter in Clement. A team can play a maximum of five regional games, and many — especially underdogs — play four.
Clement returned in early April after missing all of last season with injury, and has grown more effective with each appearance. He has not allowed an earned run in his last 4 ⅓ innings, which came against Notre Dame, Clemson and Liberty. The junior has allowed just four earned runs in 13 innings this season (2.77 ERA).
Tech’s bullpen is not awfully deep, but Swift (.95 WHIP) and Luke Craytor — perhaps Clement, too, depending on how they use him — have sub-4.00 ERAs. Crowl has struggled as of late, but is still used as the bullpen’s ace because he can stonewall lineups when he’s on. Arms like Aiden Robertson, Brendan Yagesh and Brody Roe have tossed solid outings, but ultimately own ERAs over 6.00.
On the other side, Cal Poly’s lineup is a touch cold, failing to score more than four runs across four Big West Tournament games, but has been strong season-wide.
The Mustangs bat .304 as a team with a Division I-best 151 doubles, anchored by Big West Co-Field Player of the Year and Cal transfer Ryan Tayman, a catcher hitting .355 with 16 home runs for a 1.108 OPS.
Cal Poly is typically relaxed on the basepaths and lacks home-run power, but it strings hits together and has a penchant for shooting balls into gaps. Its lineup also features shortstop Nate Castellon (.329 AVG), third baseman Alejandro Garza (.327) and right fielder Dylan Kordic (.949 OPS). The Mustangs had the most hits in the nation (701) in 2025.
Saint Mary’s pitching doesn’t compete with the rest of the regional, but don’t count out its offense. The Gaels are batting .332 as a team, which ranks third nationally, with a .927 team OPS. They are also 19th nationally in slugging at .515.
They have five players with an OPS above .990: right fielder Diego Castellanos, first baseman Makoa Sniffen, catcher Ian Armstrong, center fielder Tanner Griffith and left fielder Jacob Johnson. Three of those players — Castellanos, Sniffen and Armstrong — hit .358 or better. The Gaels struggle more with run prevention, allowing opponents to hit .279 with a 1.57 WHIP.
Los Angeles Regional Details
The Hokies departed Blacksburg for Los Angeles on Tuesday afternoon after an early practice. The L.A. Regional begins with UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s on May 29 at 3 p.m. ET on ESPNU. At 8 p.m., Virginia Tech plays Cal Poly on ESPN+.
Friday’s losers play in an elimination game Saturday at 4 p.m., followed by the winners’ bracket final at 9 p.m.
The losers’ final is set for Sunday at 4 p.m., with the first regional final scheduled for 9 p.m. Should another contest be required to determine the regional champion, it will be played on Monday.
Should that winner be the Hokies, they’ll need to shock the world again.
“My dad told me a long time ago, ‘You can never get too low and you never get too high,’” Hokies infielder Ethan Gibson said. “We just stay even-keeled. I think that’s what we did all year. There was never a time when we were panicking. … Now we think we can surprise some people.”
“We’ll have our hands full,” Szefc said. “But I think they’ll have their hands full with us, too.”