Virginia Tech baseball has everything on the line against Clemson at English Field this week. The visitors, not so much.
The Tigers’ (30-23, 9-18 ACC) life-or-death scenario begins in a week at the ACC Tournament in Charlotte, where their talented but disappointing team must win the conference title to earn an NCAA Tournament berth.
For that reason, Clemson might rest starters against the Hokies (27-22, 13-14), who could make their strongest case yet for a regional bid this weekend. They could also secure a first-round bye in the ACC Tournament, depending on other matchups around the league.
Namely, Clemson head coach Erik Bakich will consider sitting starting pitchers Michael Sharman and Aidan Knaak, who sport 3.25 and 5.27 ERAs this year, respectively. Boasting a 6-1 record, Sharman has been the team’s ace, while Knaak has disappointed (2-6) after earning first-team all-conference honors in each of his first two seasons.
The Tigers will need both arms early in the tournament if they hope to make a last-ditch run, and a series win against Tech wouldn’t add much with an already ACC-dwelling conference record.
“We will have to figure all of that out this week,” Bakich told The Clemson Insider after last weekend’s loss to Florida State. “To see if we will potentially limit Sharman and Knaak. Not pitch them or see how game one goes and then decide.
“Everything is on the table, there is nothing we have not ruled out. We have been discussing all scenarios for a while now, but have not made a decision on exactly what we will do yet. But we are going to go to Blacksburg to play to win, for sure.”
The Hokies have a better chance at clinching a spot in the NCAAs this weekend than it may seem. After listing Tech as one of the “Last Four In” in last week, D1Baseball put it more comfortably in the field on Tuesday — projecting it as a three seed in a Morgantown Regional — even though it split a weekend series against UNC Greensboro.
That’s because much of the bubble struggled last weekend. UAB and ECU, both listed above the Hokies last week, dropped series. Pitt and NC State, two of very few SEC or ACC bubble teams, also lost series, which knocked Pitt — swept by Cal to move to 10-17 in conference — from D1Baseball’s “First Four Out” to “Four To Watch.” NC State has been listed as a three seed in the field both weeks, even after dropping its last series at Stanford.
Keep in mind that D1Baseball’s Field of 64 is forward-looking and likely predicting that Tech beats Clemson to move to at least .500 in ACC play. So, to circle back to the lede: Everything is on the line for the Hokies this weekend.
That applies to the ACC Tournament, too. A first-round bye is in play and would almost certainly come with a sweep, while remaining likely with a series win.
If the season ended today, Tech would be a No. 9 seed — the highest of the first-round teams — even though it has the same conference record as No. 7 seed NC State and No. 8 seed Virginia.
Tiebreakers are decided by record against the highest-standing common opponent. In this case, all three teams have played Boston College, but only the Wolfpack beat the Eagles, doing so 2-1. UVa and Tech dropped series to the Eagles 1-2, but the Cavaliers own the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams.
This week, the Wolfpack plays a three-game set against No. 2 North Carolina, while Virginia heads to Louisville off series losses to Cal and Pitt, the latter of which was a sweep. The Hokies only need to perform better than one of those teams for a first-round bye — against a likely shorthanded Clemson.
Back to the Tigers, who are a threat even if they rest a couple of players. Their 9-18 conference record is somewhat deceptive of how good they are right now, as well as the mass of talent they undoubtedly have.
They were the preseason No. 19 team by D1baseball but have been largely abysmal in ACC play, not winning a series until the first week of April at Stanford. Three more series losses followed — UNC and Virginia before being swept by Louisville — until they found something in the first week of May.
No. 23 Boston College tripped down to Clemson and took Game 1 before being blasted 14-4 in Game 2 and falling 4-3 in Game 3. The Tigers carried that momentum to Conway, S.C., where they knocked off then-No. 8 Coastal Carolina before a series against No. 11 Florida State.
The tying run came to the plate in the bottom of the ninth in Game 1, but Clemson lost 8-4, then dropped the series finale 6-3 to lose the weekend. Its lone win came 4-3 in Game 2.
Still, that competitive series and recent surge — along with one of the toughest schedules in the ACC — has Clemson at No. 38 in RPI, one spot ahead of the Hokies, who dropped seven spots after last weekend. Bakich and Co. were three spots ahead before losing to USC Upstate 6-3 on Tuesday.
Infielder Jarren Purify has been a key piece in the Tigers’ play as of late. The junior has missed 17 games this season, but in eight games since May 1 — his healthiest stretch all year — he’s batting .448 with a 1.277 OPS, including two homers, three more extra-base hits and four steals.
Infielder Luke Gaffney has been hot, batting 16-for-37 in his last 11 games. Catcher Jacob Jarell (.308/.500/.500) in Clemson’s stretch run) and outfielder Jack Crighton (.300) have been productive, too.
If Knaak and Sharman don’t go or are limited, look for arms like freshman right-hander Danny Nelson (3.71 ERA), junior righty Drew Titsworth (5.57) or freshman lefty Dylan Harrison (2.51) to throw early.
Bakich did not mention limiting left-hander Dane Moehler, who has started in four straight series for the Tigers, including their last two Fridays. He has never gone longer than two innings, though, and has a 6.14 ERA with 18 strikeouts and four walks across 14 ⅔ innings.
Clemson’s offense has been improved lately, but it still ranks near the bottom in ACC slugging (.423) with a .274 team batting average. Its pitching, on the other hand, has been one of the easiest to slug against in ACC play, allowing 43 home runs — Wake Forest’s staff has allowed the most at 48 — and 58 doubles. For comparison, the Hokies’ staff has yielded 41 homers and 47 doubles.
Game 1 of Tech’s monumental series against the Tigers begins at 6 p.m. ET on Thursday (ACCNX). The series continues into the weekend with a 3 p.m. first pitch on Friday and 1 p.m. start on Saturday. Just three days later on Tuesday, May 19, the ACC Tournament kicks off in Charlotte.