Virginia Tech baseball has dropped three straight ACC series, and yet, Pitt enters Blacksburg this weekend as the colder team.
The Panthers (23-12, 6-9 ACC) began the season on fire, taking early ACC series from Stanford and Louisville while nabbing a game from No. 3 Georgia Tech. They’ve dramatically cooled off since, most recently being swept by Cal in a series they lost by a combined 39-9 while being run-ruled twice. That weekend was played in Pittsburgh, as was the one before, when they gave up 33 runs in three games to Wake Forest to lose that series.
The first two matchups this weekend begin at 6 p.m. ET on Friday and Saturday — Game 2 starts relatively late due to the midday football spring game — before Sunday’s 1 p.m. start.
Pitt’s pitching (which owns a league-worst 9.22 ERA in ACC play) has needed its offense to out-hit opponents throughout the season to win, but the team has cooled off in that area, too.
Take outfielder Lorenzo Carrier, who was perhaps the best hitter in the entire country through the first month of the season — a tear still reflected on his 1.410 OPS — but hasn’t been able to replicate that production deep into league play. He registered 43 RBI in his first 18 games but has just 12 in his last 17 outings. His ACC-only batting average, which includes a 6-for-9 weekend at Stanford, sits at .255.
Even though Carrier has just three conference home runs, that’s where the Panthers can hurt teams. They’re fifth in league play with 33 homers, though they haven’t converted that mark into runs on the same level as other league leaders. They simply don’t get on base with singles and doubles much, nor do they attempt many steals, ranking bottom-four in the league in all three categories.
Like all ACC teams, the Panthers’ lineup is still talented. Only Tech’s Henry Cooke, who has a 1.150 ACC OPS, and Ethan Ball (1.004) can rival Pitt shortstop Caden Dulin (1.098) and first baseman Carter Dierdorf’s (1.044) marks.
Center fielder AJ Nessler (.934), designated hitter Joey Baran (9.29) and junior Kai Wagner (.947) each boast rates better than the Hokies’ next best, owned by Sam Gates (.828). Carrier (.928) is still a threat. His 22 walks say that teams are pitching around him.
It will be interesting to see what Pitt puts on the mound this weekend if it veers off precedence at all. Despite giving up a horde of runs to Wake Forest — outside of a 4-3 win that Sunday — the Panthers ran with their typical starters against Cal, to even worse results.
Friday starter and right-hander David Leslie allowed nine earned runs last Friday before lefty Vincent Spizzoucco and righty Drew Lafferty allowed four and five to close the series, respectively. All three starters have conference ERA’s over seven, with Spizzoucco’s as high as 14.29. Right-handed closer Eddie Smink (3.60) is one of very few Pitt arms to have consistent success in ACC play.
Southpaw freshman reliever Brandon Reiter has not allowed an earned run in five conference appearances, though he walked three batters in one inning last week against Cal before righty Daniel McAuliff (12.86 ERA) entered to strand the bases loaded.
The path to Tech’s second series win is simple: take advantage of a struggling pitching staff while getting at least two good starts from Logan Eisenreich, Brett Renfrow and/or Griffin Stieg.
If the season is going to turn around for the Hokies, Pitt is a relatively easy team for a run to begin against. This is not a series Tech can drop if it hopes to re-enter the race for an NCAA regional, especially with seven of its next eight games at home.
The first pitch of the weekend comes Friday at 6 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.