The lightest portion of Virginia Tech baseball’s ACC slate continues this weekend as it plays three games against Stanford in Blacksburg.
Game 1 begins Friday at 1 p.m. ET, Game 2 is on Saturday at 3 p.m. and the series closes on Sunday at 1 p.m. The series will be televised on ACC Network Extra.
The Cardinal (11-12, 1-5 ACC) — in its first-ever trip to Blacksburg — will likely be one of Tech’s more manageable conference opponents. The only previous meeting between the teams came in the first round of last year’s ACC Tournament, when Tech won 7-4.
Based on where they stand now, dropping the upcoming series would seriously hurt the Hokies’ (12-11, 4-5) NCAA Tournament hopes. They sit at a favorable No. 26 on the RPI, and actually moved up to No. 23 after Tuesday’s loss at ETSU, according to Warren Nolan’s live RPI.
That’s because the Buccaneers received a considerable RPI boost beating a top-30 team in Tech, which now has the most difficult schedule in the nation based on both opponent RPI standing and win percentage. The boost was so significant — 11 spots to be exact — that Tuesday’s loss moved into Quadrant 2 for the Hokies.
The computers continue to like where Tech is, though they don’t believe it’ll stay there for long. Part of that is because many competitive teams have yet to hit difficult parts of their schedules that could leapfrog them past the Hokies — who’ve completed the toughest part of their schedule — in the RPI.
The other part of that is simpler; Tech hasn’t put a great product on the field relative to its RPI standing.
Warren Nolan projects Szefc & Co. to finish around No. 90, which would situate the team out of range for NCAA Tournament selection. That prediction is based on underlying offensive and defensive stats that don’t favor Tech as much as scheduling metrics do, but even traditional numbers — its ACC-low batting average and ERA — reflect those issues.
That doesn’t mean the Hokies can’t turn things around, but it does indicate that their current RPI standing is fragile. A series loss to the Cardinal (No. 151 in RPI), which is not out of the question, would illustrate that.
Stanford has three players who are top 24 in the ACC in batting average: outfielder Teddy Tokheim (.409), designated hitter Eric Jeon (.391) and outfielder Ethan Hott (.372). Jeon is hitting .474 with four homers in six ACC games while Hott is batting .500 through three.
The Cardinal has played at Wake Forest and against Pitt thus far — both strong teams that sit around the middle of the ACC — and only took a game off the Panthers.
However, Stanford is fourth in the conference in total home runs — 46, doubling Tech’s 23 — which doesn’t bode well for a Hokies team that’s given up the most long balls in the league (36).
Shortstop Charlie Bates and first baseman Rintaro Sasaki have seven homers, while second baseman Jimmy Nati, Jeon and Tokheim have six. The Hokies’ home run leader, Hudson Lutterman, has five.
Despite its home run potential, the Cardinal is 12th in the ACC in runs, primarily because it doesn’t generate many walks or steals. It’s second-to-last in the conference in both categories.
Pitching struggles have brought Stanford from three straight College World Series appearances in 2021-23 to the bottom of the ACC in the last two years. This season hasn’t been much different thus far, with the team sporting a 6.52 ERA — with a league-worst 9.53 mark in ACC play — while leading the conference in walks.
Right-hander Nick Dugan (8.04 ERA) has anchored Fridays, with righty Aidan Keenan (6.75) starting Saturdays and righty Parker Warner (7.47) taking Sundays. However, due to that setup having been generally ineffective thus far, the Cardinal used lefty Quinten Marsh (6.75), righty Ben Reimers (10.29) and lefty Sam Garewal (8.22) in its first three games against Utah Valley last weekend.
The only Stanford pitchers with three or more appearances and an ERA under 4.00 are relievers Austin Steeves (3.86), a lefty, and right-hander Toran O’Harran (3.77).
If last weekend is any indication, the Hokies will use Brendan Yagesh on Friday, Brett Renfrow on Saturday and Griffin Stieg on Sunday. Freshman Ethan Grim had an encouraging start to his season as a rotation piece, but it would be difficult for Tech to pivot away from Yagesh after his seven-inning shutdown against Duke last week.
Offensively, Tech hopes to rebound from a four-hit foray at ETSU on Tuesday, though it seems to be trending up after batting .324 with runners in scoring position against Duke.
The Hokies’ three-game set against Stanford begins Friday at 1 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.