- Virginia Tech vs. Miami: Saturday, Nov. 22, at noon ET (ESPN) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Miami -17.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
As much as I’d like to keep talking about Franklin, we’ve still got two football games to cover. Miami slipped up in the middle of the season with close losses to Louisville and SMU, but it’s recovered nicely in back-to-back blowout wins over Syracuse (38-10) and NC State (41-7). It would be accurate to say that the Hurricanes are the most talented team in the ACC and will present a tremendous challenge for the Hokies on Saturday.
If Virginia Tech can manage to pull the upset, it would be one of the great storybook games in Hokie history. Can you imagine upsetting a top-15 Miami team in one of Philip Montgomery’s last games, with new head coach James Franklin hosting his first big group of recruits on campus? That would be a game that Tech fans would remember forever.
How likely is it to happen? Well, it’s going to be tough. The numbers indicate that Miami is the best football team the Hokies will face this season, and its dominant defense matched up against a struggling Tech offense isn’t something to look forward to. Let’s take a closer look at this Hurricane team.
The Miami Offense By The Numbers
Here’s a look at Miami’s traditional stats:
- Rushing: 157.7 ypg, No. 69
- YPC: 4.37, No. 61
- Passing: 269.9 ypg, No. 27
- Passer Rating: 159.06, No. 17
- Total Offense: 427.6 ypg, No. 34
- Yards Per Play: 6.33, No. 30
- TFL Allowed: 3.3 per game, No. 6
- Sacks Allowed: 0.9 per game, No. 9
- Third Downs: 45.45%, No. 29
The rushing offense isn’t dominant, but it’s good enough to serve as a great complement to a passing game that has been very efficient (except for one game). Another thing to note is that the Hurricanes barely allow any penetration at all. They are very good up front.
Here are some more advanced metrics:
- OF+: No. 18
- Available Yards: No. 40
- Possession Efficiency: No. 35
- Success Rate: No. 41
The Hurricanes aren’t quite a dominant offense, but they are solid across the board and are extremely balanced.
Miami Quarterback Carson Beck
Georgia transfer Carson Beck (6-4, 225, r-Sr.) is an extremely accurate passer who has put up excellent numbers for the Hurricanes this year, with the notable exception of one game.
- 2025 totals: 213-of-291 (73.2%) for 2,485 yards, 8.5 YPA, 18 TDs, 9 INTs
Beck leads the ACC in completion percentage. Two years ago, he led the SEC in passing yards. His 8.5 yards per attempt is pretty impressive, too. However, in 2024, he also led the SEC in interceptions with 12 after throwing just six in 2023. He’s got nine picks so far this season.
Beck’s interceptions seem to come in waves. Last season at Georgia, nine of his 12 picks came in three games against Alabama, Texas and Florida. This year at Miami, six of his nine picks came in the Hurricanes’ two losses to Louisville and SMU, including four in the defeat to the Cardinals. When he’s good, he’s really good. When he’s bad, he’s really bad.
Other Offensive Standouts
The Hurricanes are solid across the board offensively, but three players really stand out to me.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (6-2, 225, Jr.) has never been the primary back at Miami until this season, but he’s standing out. He has 636 yards and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and he’s also a decent receiver coming out of the backfield. He has 100-yard games against South Florida, Florida and Stanford this season.
Fletcher also has 36 forced missed tackles this year. With his size, he’s not an easy guy to bring down, so the Virginia Tech defense needs to get bodies on him before he gets going downhill.
He’s complemented in the backfield by CharMar Brown (5-11, 220, r-So.), a North Dakota State transfer who ran for over 1,100 yards last year. He won the Jerry Rice Award for best freshman in FCS football.
Wide receiver Malachi Toney (5-11, 188, Fr.) has been a dominant player despite being a true freshman. He wasn’t ranked very high — 247Sports only had him as a three-star recruit and the No. 47 player in Florida — but he’s been a revelation since he arrived on campus.
He leads the team with 55 catches for 698 yards and five touchdowns in 2025. He’s also got nine carries on the season, so the Hurricanes aren’t afraid to get it to him in a variety of ways. Toney had back-to-back 100-yard receiving games against the talented athletes that Florida State and Louisville put on the field. He’ll likely be Carson Beck’s top target against the Hokies on Saturday.
Finally, offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (6-6, 335, Jr.) is one of the best linemen in the country. He’s originally from American Samoa before attending IMG Academy. He’s been a starter for the Hurricanes from day one and is projected to be a very early first-round pick next spring. He’s perhaps the most dominant offensive player the Hokies will face all season.
The Miami Defense By The Numbers
The traditional stats indicate Miami’s defense is really good.- Rushing: 81.8 ypg, No. 3
- YPC: 2.72, No. 6
- Passing: 189.1 ypg, No. 28
- Opp. Passer Rating: 111.4, No. 18
- Total Defense: 270.9 ypg, No. 9
- Yards Per Play: 4.34, No. 8
- TFL: 6.4 per game, No. 31
- Sacks: 2.5 per game, No. 27
- Third Downs: 30.3%, No. 10
- DF+: No. 9
- Available Yards: No. 7
- Possession Efficiency: No. 6
- Success Rate: No. 6
Top Defensive Personnel
It can be difficult to identify some of Miami’s top defensive personnel. Only one player in its rotation has graded out below the PFF baseline of 60, so it’s a solid group across the board. However, there is one player who stands out above all others, and like Mauigoa, he is projected to be an early first-round selection in the spring.Rueben Bain Jr. (6-3, 270, Jr.) is a matchup problem on the edge. He burst onto the scene two years ago as a freshman when he racked up 12.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. His numbers haven’t been as impressive since then, but that’s mostly due to injury last year and the fact that opposing offenses are dedicating so much to slowing him down this year. He’s one of those players who can make a tremendous impact on the game even when he’s not putting up huge numbers.
Virginia Tech was fortunate that he missed last year’s game due to an injury, but it’ll have to face him this season. He has 54 quarterback pressures, which ranks No. 4 nationally in FBS football and No. 2 amongst Power 4 players. He’ll be one of the most difficult players the Hokie offensive line has seen this season.
Unfortunately for Tech, he’s one of just two very dangerous defensive ends the Hurricanes will put on the field. Akheem Mesidor (6-3, 265, r-Sr.) is a West Virginia transfer who is originally from Canada. He’s thrived off of Bain’s double teams this year and has put up 10.5 tackles for loss and six sacks to go along with 37 total pressures. Right now, Mel Kiper Jr. has Bain going No. 12 overall with Mesidor being picked No. 18. Bain gets more hype, but Mesidor is also really good.
Another impressive player is cornerback Keionte Scott (6-0, 195, r-Sr.), an Auburn transfer who is allowing fewer than 20 receiving yards per game this year. Scott lines up in the slot and loves to play the run as much as the pass. He’s got 10 tackles for loss and three sacks on the season, which are crazy good numbers for a nickel. A Thorpe Award semifinalist (along with Mansoor Delane), Scott is a dominant player and should also be a pretty early pick in the draft next spring.
Safety Jakobe Thomas (6-2, 200, Sr.) has a very high missed tackle rate (22.2%), but he’s been a very good overall player for the Hurricanes this year. He ranks third on the team with 44 tackles and has also recorded a team-high four interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown.
This is an excellent defense across the board, even better than the Louisville unit the Hokies faced just a few weeks ago. Philip Montgomery will have to break out his bag of tricks to find success against this group.
Special Teams
Miami ranks No. 19 nationally in SF+, which is a combination of S&P+ and FEI special teams ratings. This is a very good Hurricane team across the board.
Kicker Carter Davis is a transfer from Florida Atlantic, where he was only 4-for-11 on field goal attempts for his career. However, putting a Miami uniform on him seems to have helped him find his groove, as he’s 11-of-13 so far in 2025. Still, his past suggests that he may not be completely reliable.
The Hurricanes rank No. 4 in the country in touchback percentage at 89.2 percent while their opponents are only averaging four punt return yards per game. On paper, it doesn’t seem like the Hokies will be able to get much done in the return game.
Virginia Tech-Miami Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen on Saturday.Virginia Tech-Miami Final Thoughts
Man, I sure would like to pick Virginia Tech to win this game. Wouldn’t it be an amazing gameday experience if the Hokies could upset a top 15-team with new head coach James Franklin hosting his first big recruiting weekend? The fan base deserves something like that, and I’d also love for Philip Montgomery to pick up another win or two before he departs.However, even if the Miami offense wasn’t any good, just looking at the numbers its defense has put up this year, it’s going to be really difficult for the Hokies to move the football. Tech has struggled against very middling defenses this year, such as Georgia Tech’s. What is it going to do against a top-10 unit like Miami?
The Canes should be better than 8-2, but I’ll point out that they’ve had a tougher ACC slate than those one-loss teams. Here’s ESPN’s strength of schedule for Miami and those four teams with one loss:
- Miami: No. 43
- SMU: No. 67
- Pitt: No. 69
- UVa: No. 80
- GT: No. 88
Unbalanced scheduling can have a big impact on title races these days, and Miami wasn’t as fortunate as those other programs. Still, it probably should have won at least one of those games that it lost.
As inconsistent as the Hurricanes have been through the years, it’s hard for me to foresee them playing poorly enough to lose to this particular Virginia Tech team.
Chris’ Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 10
Will Stewart (Founder): Once one of college football’s great, underappreciated rivalries, this game has lost some luster in the last 10 or 15 years, with Miami winning nine of the last 12 and four in a row. After losing the first 12 games in the series (through 1994), VT leads it 15-14 since then, despite recent struggles. Here’s to hoping that James Franklin can bring more talent to the Virginia Tech roster and return balance to the series.
Chris started warning me weeks ago that Virginia Tech’s consecutive-game scoring streak, which is now 393 games and is fourth-longest in FBS history, could be in danger against Louisville and Miami. The Hokies put up 16 points on the Cardinals, so they passed that test. Now come the Canes, against whom the Hokies started their streak back on Sept. 23, 1995, with their 13-7 landmark win.
Yep, that’s where we are right now. In this lost season, with a program-changing coaching hire in the books, we’re focusing on whether or not the Hokies can keep a 30-year scoring streak alive. I think they will.
Will’s Prediction: Miami 37, Virginia Tech 10
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): Simply put, this isn’t a good matchup for the Hokies. Miami is dominant on both sides of the ball, and this isn’t exactly a dynamic Virginia Tech offense. It’s had its ups and downs, but it’s been fairly one-dimensional against decent teams. Louisville is a great example of that — and the Cardinals scored 21 unanswered to run away with it.
Miami is even better, though, and I don’t feel like this one will be close, especially if the Hokies can’t move the ball on the ground against a stout rushing defense. It’s a disappointing turn of events after last season’s meeting at Hard Rock Stadium that came down to a wild Hail Mary after Tech went toe-to-toe with the No. 7 Canes — but couldn’t handle Cam Ward. Hopefully next year’s matchup will be more competitive with James Franklin at the helm.
David’s Prediction: Miami 31, Virginia Tech 7
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Good vibes at Virginia Tech notwithstanding, this doesn’t feel like a great spot for the Hokies. The Hurricanes are likely not getting into the ACC title game, so their only shot at the playoff is as an at-large selection — and on that front, they’re being disrespected by the committee, which seems to have collective amnesia about Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame. Might the Canes come out on Saturday trying to prove a point?
More specifically to the X’s and O’s, Miami’s got a stellar run defense, giving up just 81.8 yards per game, which ranks third nationally. That’s really the only way the Hokies can move the ball, which could make for a long day.
Andy’s Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 13
Nick Brown (Director of Media):Over the past two weeks, my final score predictions have been off by just one point each. On top of that, I correctly predicted the Wofford final score. If you throw out my other score predictions, I am basically correct all of the time.
Wofford:
Prediction — Virginia Tech 38, Wofford 6
Final — Virginia Tech 38, Wofford 6
Louisville:
Prediction — Louisville 27, Virginia Tech 16
Final — Louisville 28, Virginia Tech 16
Florida State:
Prediction — Florida State 34, Virginia Tech 13
Final — Florida State 34, Virginia Tech 14
This week, when I look into my glowing ball of destiny, I see Virginia Tech having an epic entrance for the recruits and the scoring streak staying alive. Besides that, I am not optimistic. The Canes will roll the Hokies en route to an at-large playoff bid.
Nick’s Prediction: Miami 41, Virginia Tech 10
 |
|
|
|
|
24-11 |
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
44-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 45-26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
38-6 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
23-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 30-23 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
35-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
42-34 (2 OT) |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
28-16 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
34-14 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
34-17 |
|
 |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Gamecocks Win by 11+ (39%) |  |
Gamecocks 24, Hokies 11 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (50%) |  |
Vanderbilt 44, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (36%) | |
ODU 45, VT 26 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (62%) | |
Hokies 38, Terriers 6 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ (59%) | |
Hokies 23, Wolfpack 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (58%) | |
Deacs 30, Hokies 23 | |
| Jackets Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Jackets 35, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (52%) | |
Hokies 42, Golden Bears 34 (2 OT) | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ (64%) | |
Cardinals 28, Hokies 16 | |
| Seminoles Win by 11+ (49%) | |
Seminoles 34, Hokies 14 | |
| Canes Win by 11+ (79%) | |
Hurricanes 34, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |