- Virginia Tech at Florida State: Saturday, Nov. 15, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ACCN) from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.
- Betting line: Florida State -14.0
- Roster cards: Click here
- Tallahassee weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
Before their 42-7 victory over Wake Forest on Nov. 1, the Seminoles had lost nine consecutive ACC games dating back to last season. Hidden in the middle of that streak was a 31-17 thumping of Alabama in the 2025 season opener. Go figure.
Overall, Norvell is 37-32 in Tallahassee, with a 21-25 record in ACC play. Since the 2023 Orange Bowl loss to Georgia, he is 6-16. It’s not exactly the Bobby Bowden era anymore. Despite those struggles, the Seminoles will still make a bowl game this year if they win two of their last three games against Virginia Tech, NC State and Florida. With Saturday’s game against the Hokies being their final home game, it’s just about a must-win.
Underachieving Teams
I’m going to use the F+ metrics (combination of FEI and S&P+) to compare three different teams, and at the end I’ll reveal each team.
Here’s Team A:
• Overall: No. 30
• Offense: No. 50
• Defense: No. 25
• Special Teams: No. 17
Here’s Team B:
• Overall: No. 29
• Offense: No. 31
• Defense: No. 40
• Special Teams: No. 54
Here’s Team C:
• Overall: No. 21
• Offense: No. 24
• Defense: No. 33
• Special Teams: No. 2
Those all seem like pretty solid football teams, right?
And now, here’s the team reveal (drumroll):
• Team A: 2024 Virginia Tech (6-7)
• Team B: 2025 Florida State (4-5)
• Team C: 2025 Penn State (3-6)
All three of those teams are/were solid in the metrics but couldn’t get it done in close games. Check out the number of one-score losses:
• 2024 VT: 5
• 2025 FSU: 4
• 2025 PSU: 5
The Seminoles and Nittany Lions have a bit more overall talent than the 2024 Hokies, but their stories were all the same. They couldn’t get it done in clutch situations. That’s the team Virginia Tech will be facing on Saturday. It’s just about a mirror image of the team we watched play last season.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos
Florida State will be starting a familiar name at quarterback on Saturday. Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos (5-11, 201, Sr.) moved south in the offseason, and his performance levels have been up and down in Tallahassee.On the positive side, he leads the ACC in yards per attempt (9.5) and yards per completion (15.8). His passer rating of 150.25 is a very respectable at No. 39 nationally. However, the end results haven’t been there for Castellanos and the FSU offense.
He also hasn’t been the rusher that he was two years ago when he ran for 1,113 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Last year, he managed only 194 yards and 2.1 yards per carry in Bill O’Brien’s offense, which was a poor fit. This year, he’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry and has 359 yards.
Comparing his first five games with his last four, it looks like he could be slowing down when it comes to running the ball:
• First five games: 57 carries for 274 yards, 4.81 ypc
• Last four games: 43 carries for 85 yards, 1.98 ypc
He ran into some of the same issues at Boston College. He’s not the biggest quarterback, so there came a point in the season when he got banged up and lost his effectiveness. Virginia Tech was fortunate enough to catch him twice at such a time, and he struggled a bit in both outings against the Hokies:
• 2023: 10-of-20 (50%), 110 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 11 carries, 46 yards
• 2024: 17-of-26 (65.4%), 205 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 20 carries, 58 yards
His numbers last season were solid, but the Hokies were up 28-0 at halftime.
Castellanos has more talent around him at Florida State than he did in Chestnut Hill, and he’ll likely put up pretty good numbers against Tech on Saturday. However, his numbers this year haven’t been a big issue (outside of TD passes; he’s only got 11 of those). For whatever reason, FSU just fails to get it done.
A Matchup Nightmare
The Hokies will face one of their toughest matchups of the season in the form of wide receiver Duce Robinson (6-6, 223, Jr.). He’s got 43 catches for 813 yards and four touchdowns this season.
Oddly enough, he didn’t do much in FSU’s big win over Alabama (2 catches, 18 yards). However, he’s had big games, even in losses, as well as the recent win over Wake Forest:
• UVa: 9 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD
• Miami: 6 catches, 87 yards
• Stanford: 4 catches, 98 yards
• Wake: 5 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD
• Clemson: 9 catches, 124 yards
Robinson knows how to use his frame. He’s tied for seventh nationally with 12 contested catches this season. That ranks No. 2 in the ACC, only behind CJ Williams of Stanford. With his height, it’s surprising that he doesn’t have more touchdown catches. Perhaps Castellanos isn’t good at throwing the fade?
Virginia Tech cornerbacks Thomas Williams (5-11) and Isaiah Brown-Murray (5-9) will have their work cut out for them this week. Brown-Murray has been under-appreciated this year because of the struggles of the team as a whole. However, this will be his toughest matchup of the season.
The Florida State Running Game
Like Castellanos, the FSU running game has taken a noticeable step back as the season has progressed.
• First four games: 336.25 ypg, 6.6 ypc (including a 498-yard performance against Kent State)
• Last five games: 139 ypg, 3.7 ypc
Some of that could be due to Castellanos not being as effective/healthy as he was early in the season, but the yards per carry have dropped by nearly three full yards. There are plenty of other things at play as well.
Gavin Sawchuk (5-11, 209, r-Jr.) is FSU’s top rusher with 433 yards and a 4.6 yards per carry average. However, he has just seven carries over the last two games combined. Samuel Singleton Jr. (5-11, 201, r-So.) has been the primary ball carrier among the running backs over the last two games, but he only had six carries against Clemson.
• vs. Wake: 14 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD
• vs. Clemson: 6 carries, 28 yards
He’s got 286 yards on the season, though 168 of them came in back-to-back wins against East Texas A&M and Kent State when the FSU offense was humming. Between Sept. 26 and Oct. 18, he only had one carry before finally returning to the rotation against Wake Forest.
It’s hard to say exactly who will power the Florida State running game against the Hokies, but it needs to be more productive than it has been in recent weeks.
The Florida State Defense
Florida State’s defense could have done better in losses to Virginia and Pitt, but it did well enough to keep the team in the game in some of the other defeats:• Miami: 338 yards, 5.7 yards per play
• Stanford: 293 yards, 4.4 yards per play
• Clemson: 319 yards, 5.1 yards per play
This isn’t a particularly good matchup for the Hokies because the Seminole run defense has been good. Only one team has averaged over four yards per carry against FSU. That was UVa, and considering how poorly the Cavalier offense has played since then, it wouldn’t likely happen again.
In Week 1, FSU held Alabama to 89 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per carry. It also held Miami to 97 yards and 3.0 yards per carry. Clemson was held under the century mark, too, and averaged just 2.7 yards per carry.
For whatever faults the Seminoles have had as a team this year, rush defense hasn’t been one of them. Their 3.04 yards per carry allowed ranks No. 13 nationally.
They haven’t been as successful stopping the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 132.21, which ranks No. 71 in the country. That’s slightly worse than middle-of-the-pack. However, Virginia Tech doesn’t have the passing offense to attack that weak spot on a consistent basis, so it’s probably a moot point.
FSU is also No. 32 in tackles for loss and No. 21 in sacks, so it makes it very difficult for opposing offensive lines. The Hokies need to script up some misdirection this week.
The Seminoles also have depth. For example, take defensive end Mandrell Desir (6-4, 262, Fr.). He hasn’t started a game this year but leads the team in tackles for loss with five and sacks with four. You might be thinking that the true freshman was a highly-touted recruit like most FSU guys. Nope. He was a three-star player, the No. 54 edge prospect and the No. 80 recruit in Florida. He had the same 88 rating as seven members of the 2025 Virginia Tech recruiting class.
Safety Earl Little Jr. (6-1, 199, r-Jr.) is a name you’ll recognize. His dad played for Miami and then in the NFL. The younger Little began his career at Alabama before transferring to Florida State. He’s been one of FSU’s most consistent defenders this year, but he’ll miss a few tackles here and there if the Hokies can get their backs to the second level.
Defensive tackle Darrell Jackson Jr. (6-5, 337, r-Sr.) doesn’t put up big numbers, but he’s a big body that is tough to move. He’s also sort of the embodiment of the transfer portal era. He once played for Miami and now plays for Florida State, which is a little bit difficult to fathom.
Florida State doesn’t seem to have a highly-touted NFL-type draft pick for next year’s class, but it’s still a solid and very athletic defense across the board.
Special Teams
Of Florida State’s 55 kickoffs this season, 52 have gone for touchbacks. Opponents have only managed to return one punt this year against the Seminoles. Don’t expect Tech to find hidden yardage in the kicking game this week. That’s one part of the game where FSU thrives.
Kicker Jake Weinbert is 9-of-12 on the season. He’s missed his only kick beyond 50 yards, but he’s a perfect 7-of-7 from inside 40 yards. He’s solid, but not spectacular.
Three Florida State returners, led by wide receiver Squirrel White, have averaged 11.2 yards per punt return this season. All three of them have a return of 20-plus yards, so the Seminoles are dangerous in this area of the game.
Virginia Tech-Florida State Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen on Saturday.Final Thoughts
Both of these teams are struggling, though the Hokies are struggling more. The Seminoles have a higher ceiling. They aren’t as good as they seemed when they beat Alabama earlier this year, but they woodshedded a very well-coached Wake Forest team 42-7 a couple of weeks back. However, they just can’t seem to get over the hump overall.Virginia Tech has played very hard under Philip Montgomery and led Louisville in the third quarter in its last game. Florida State’s defense isn’t as good as Louisville’s, in my opinion, and the Seminoles aren’t as well-coached as the Cardinals. They’ll put plenty of talented athletes on the field, though, and they’ll make life tough on the Hokies.
Because FSU has made losing a habit, and because Norvell can never seem to get the most out of his talent, I can see the Hokies winning a close game. However, if the tide goes against Tech, the Seminoles can win with relative ease.
Chris’ Prediction: Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 20
Will Stewart (Founder): I really wanted to pick Virginia Tech in this one. Florida State has been struggling so much with close games and there seems to be something wrong with the entire Seminole operation.
If you look at FSU’s schedule, its first three ACC losses (UVa, Miami, Pitt) were all one-score losses to good teams, so there’s no shame in that. It just couldn’t get over the hump.
But since the Pitt loss, the Noles have a baffling 20-13 loss to Stanford, a bad team that resides near the bottom of the ACC standings. And they could only put up ten points against a Clemson team that was 1-4 at home this year before FSU came to town.
But those games were on the road. In between, Florida State rolled at home (42-7) over a Wake Forest team that is 6-3 overall.
FSU is 4-2 at home. It’s a night game. This is senior night. But most importantly, the Seminoles defend the run fairly well (seventh in the ACC) and they run it better than anyone in the conference. As Chris noted, the running game and run defense are slowing down, but Florida State is still better than Virginia Tech (13th in the ACC in run defense and fourth in rushing).
Barring turnovers and freak plays, FSU’s got the edge in a game that I think will be close. Perhaps that gives the Hokies an advantage, because FSU is 0-4 in one-score games and Virginia Tech is 2-2.
As noted, I wanted to pick Virginia Tech in this one, but I think Florida State’s edge in the running game and this one being in Tallahassee favors the Seminoles.
Will’s Prediction: Florida State 20, Virginia Tech 13
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): Florida State hasn’t exactly impressed this season, but neither has Virginia Tech. They’ve each had bright spots over the last few weeks, though. The Hokies played OK against an impressive Louisville team while the Seminoles thumped a solid Wake Forest squad.
Tech sacked Thomas Castellanos four times when Boston College visited Blacksburg last year (all from Antwaun Powell-Ryland), so there’s some familiarity there. Still, he’s got an outstanding crop of receivers around him, and the Hokies have holes on both sides of the ball. Moreover, FSU’s biggest defensive strength is stopping the run, which doesn’t bode well for a Tech team that needs to run the ball.
I think Florida State will really limit Virginia Tech and win this one by two scores.
David’s Prediction: Florida State 30, Virginia Tech 17
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Florida State opened as a big favorite and saw the line move even further in its direction as the week progressed, and while the Noles are undoubtedly talented, they’re far from trustworthy to turn in one of those kinds of solid performances. This is a team that beat Alabama and walloped a Wake team that beat Virginia Tech, but it’s also one that lost on the road at Stanford and is 2-12 in the ACC over the last two years.
For that reason, I’m not going to pick the Seminoles to simply roll in this one. I think they’ll win, mostly because the Hokies are equipped to win one type of game — one where they get out to an early lead or stick close throughout and can run the ball effectively rather than having to go to the air. Of all the ways Saturday could play out, what are the odds that it’s that kind of game? Give me FSU, but not to cover.
Andy’s Prediction: Florida State 27, Virginia Tech 19
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Each week, I make graphics for our podcast that include the ACC and national rankings of key statistical categories for Virginia Tech and its opponent. They’re basic stats, but they serve as a good reference point for the guys on set when discussing both teams.
This week, I created the Florida State graphics, and yes, I know those numbers are inflated by wins over West Texas A&M and Kent State. Still, I can’t help feeling pessimistic.
Unfortunately, I could see this one getting ugly. Florida State trounced Wake Forest two weeks ago, and I could easily see a similar outcome. It might not be 45-7 like that game, but I just don’t see Tech’s defensive backs being able to shut down those wide receivers.
(This is intentional locker room material for the Hokies. This is a Mike Norvell Florida State team that Tech is facing, after all.)
Nick’s Prediction: Florida State 34, Virginia Tech 13
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24-11 |
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44-20 |
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 45-26 |
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38-6 |
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23-21 |
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 30-23 |
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35-20 |
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42-34 (2 OT) |
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28-16 |
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34-14 |
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34-17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Gamecocks Win by 11+ (39%) |  |
Gamecocks 24, Hokies 11 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (50%) |  |
Vanderbilt 44, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (36%) | |
ODU 45, VT 26 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (62%) | |
Hokies 38, Terriers 6 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ (59%) | |
Hokies 23, Wolfpack 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (58%) | |
Deacs 30, Hokies 23 | |
| Jackets Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Jackets 35, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (52%) | |
Hokies 42, Golden Bears 34 (2 OT) | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ (64%) | |
Cardinals 28, Hokies 16 | |
| Seminoles Win by 11+ (49%) | |
Seminoles 34, Hokies 14 | |
| Canes Win by 11+ (79%) | |
Hurricanes 34, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |