- Virginia Tech vs. Louisville: Saturday, Nov. 1, at 3 p.m. ET (CW) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Louisville -10.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
This was a game I was looking forward to for a long time — up until Virginia Tech stopped being good at football, that is. On paper, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be very competitive, with the Cardinals (6-1, 3-1 ACC) recently knocking off Miami on the road. Louisville’s only loss came at the hands of Virginia in an overtime game in which it mostly had the upper hand but allowed two defensive touchdowns.
Head coach Jeff Brohm is a Louisville graduate who is 25-9 in two-plus seasons at his alma mater, including an impressive 15-5 mark in the ACC. Before that, he turned around a historically bad Purdue program after going 30-10 at Western Kentucky. Brohm had a winning record (26-25) in Big Ten play in six seasons at Purdue, and the Boilermakers are 3-20 in conference play since he left. That’s the mark of a really good coach.
With Louisville very much in the competition for an ACC title and a spot in the College Football Playoff, it’s safe to say we can expect a big effort from the visitors on Saturday. Let’s find out a little bit more about them.
By The Numbers: The Louisville Offense
Here’s how the Louisville offense looks by the advanced metrics:
• DF+: No. 50
• Available Yards: No. 89
And here’s how it looks in the traditional numbers:
• Rushing: 144.43 ypg, No. 79
• YPC: 4.77, No. 43
• Passing: 268.6 ypg, No. 32
• Passer Rating: 135.88, No. 77
• Total Offense: 413 ypg, No. 51
• Third downs: 41.05%, No. 61
This is an offense that throws for a lot of yards, though sometimes isn’t as efficient through the air as Brohm would like. Meanwhile, it only ranks No. 79 in rushing yards per game, yet is still top 45 in yards per carry.
At its best, this offensive is very balanced and difficult to stop. However, there are times when it has bogged down, and the Cardinals have turned the ball over 12 times this year, which ranks No. 103 nationally.
Louisville’s Offensive Personnel
The Cardinals have a couple of “dudes” on offense who stand out from the rest of the crowd. These are the two players Virginia Tech must stop — or at least slow down — if they want to have any chance of success in this game.Chris Bell (6-2, 220, Sr.) has spent his entire career at Louisville and is finally coming on as a senior. He had a good season last year, but he’s taken it to an entirely different level so far in 2025. He leads the ACC with 687 receiving yards, just 50 off his total from last season. He has already eclipsed last season’s 43 receptions with 48 in 2025. He also leads the ACC with six receiving touchdowns. Nobody else from Louisville has more than one.
Physically, he reminds me of former Florida State and NFL star Anquan Boldin, who went to the same Pahokee High School as former Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. There’s your random trivia for the day. You can be forgiven if you mistake Bell for a running back because that’s what he looks like.
He didn’t do as much last week against Boston College, but he went on an absolute tear in a recent three-game stretch:
• Pitt: 10 catches on 14 targets, 135 yards, 1 TD
• UVa: 12 catches on 14 targets, 170 yards, 2 TDs
• Miami: 9 catches on 12 targets, 136 yards, 2 TDs
He forced three missed tackles against Miami and is the type of receiver who can absolutely make you pay after the reception if he catches the ball in space while he’s running downhill. The Hokies have to close those windows in a hurry, and they have to do it with a banged up and inexperienced secondary.
Running back Isaac Brown (5-9, 190, So.) burst onto the scene last year as a freshman to rush for 1,173 yards while leading the ACC with a 7.1 yards per carry average. He was limited for a short time earlier this season (one carry against Bowling Green, for example) with a lower leg injury, and to an extent, that setback probably hurt Louisville’s offensive numbers this year. He appears to be healthy again if you judge him on his last two games:
• Miami: 15 carries, 113 yards
• BC: 14 carries, 205 yards, 1 TD
Brown is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per carry, so it’s likely that he’ll lead the league in yards per carry for the second season in a row. He’s a big-play machine with a 73-yarder against BC, a 78-yard run against James Madison and another carry for 68 yards against Eastern Kentucky. He had 15 forced missed tackles against Miami on 15 carries. Let that sink in.
Quarterback Miller Moss (6-2, 210, r-Sr.) is a USC transfer. He’s completed 65 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards, with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2025. He’s on pace to almost exactly mirror his 2024 numbers as the starter for the Trojans. However, outside of Bell, the Cardinals seem to lack a big-play punch in the passing game. Moss has averaged under seven yards per attempt in five of his seven games this season, including each of the last four. He’s also not much of a runner, with -77 rushing yards on the season, and the Tech defense has played much better this season against offenses whose quarterbacks don’t run.
Moss has been pressured on 30.4 percent of his dropbacks this season, which isn’t a good number. He’s only completing 46 percent of his passes when pressured with a turnover worthy play percentage of 7.1 percent. For comparison, Kyron Drones has been pressured on 40.2 percent of his dropbacks this year and has completed 39.3 percent of his passes when pressured with a turnover worthy play percentage of 7.4 percent. So, while Moss is a bit better under pressure than Drones, his effectiveness really drops when rushed, as you might expect. It’s important that the Hokies get in his face.
Louisville’s offensive line has been its weak spot this season, especially the offensive tackles and offensive guard Jordan Church, an FAU transfer. This is a game where I trust the Hokie defensive front to hold up well, but the big question (as usual) is how will the linebackers and defensive backs hold up — not only against the pass, but in run support as well?
The Impressive Louisville Defense
Outside of perhaps Miami (and that’s very debatable), Virginia Tech will not face a better defense this season than the one it will play on Saturday. Louisville’s defense has been steady and consistent all year and is balanced between the run and the pass.
Here are some advanced defensive numbers:
• DF+: No. 19
• Available Yards: No. 5
It’s very difficult to move the ball on this group. Its traditional numbers are just as impressive.
• Rushing: 105.29 ypg, No. 21
• YPC: 3.20, No. 17
• Passing: 181 ypg, No. 21
• Opp. Passer Rating: 108.01, No. 13
• Total Defense: 286.3 ypg, No. 14
• Third downs: 33.33%, No. 25
The Cardinals don’t play that well by swarming in the backfield a lot. They are only No. 61 nationally in sacks and No. 97 in tackles for loss. However, they are strong, tough, physical and disciplined. They are an extremely tough nut to crack. They’ve only allowed 30 points once this year, a 30-27 loss to UVa, but that is deceiving as the Cavaliers scored two defensive touchdowns and the game went to overtime.
Defensive Players To Watch
I thought Clev Lubin (6-3, 250, r-Jr.) was one of the top edge players in the portal when he left Coastal Carolina after last season, and I wrote about him several times on TSL. He ended up picking Louisville, which has proven to be a wise decision. He’s tied for the team lead with four sacks and has 5.5 tackles for loss.Lubin has 37 total pressures this season, and his 92.2 pass rushing grade on PFF ranks No. 7 in the country out of 334 edge defenders with 100-plus pass rushing snaps. Rueben Bain Jr. at Miami gets a lot of hype, and rightfully so, but Lubin is just as productive this season, if not more. He’s a First Team All-ACC defensive player in my book.
Wesley Bailey (6-5, 265, r-Sr.) has four sacks as well. He’s a transfer from Rutgers, where he was a part of the defensive lines that smashed Virginia Tech in 2023 and 2024. He’s not as dynamic as Lubin, but he’s still got 23 pressures. The presence of each player makes the other better.
Sam linebacker Antonio Watts (6-2, 225, r-Jr.) leads Louisville in interceptions with three. He also has 4.5 tackles for loss and two sacks, so he gets around the football a lot. However, he’s got a 29 percent missed tackle rate this year, so he’s not perfect.
Rene Konga (6-4, 300, r-Sr.) is one of three redshirt seniors who start on the defensive line. He plays on the interior, and outside of Lubin, you could probably argue that he’s been Louisville’s best defensive player this season. He’s also a transfer from Rutgers who played against the Hokies in 2023. Greg Schiano clearly knows defensive talent, but he probably doesn’t have the resources to keep it. Konga has four tackles for loss this year.
Overall, it isn’t easy to identify just a few standout players because there are so many good players on that side of the ball. Five of the Cardinals’ defensive regulars have graded out around an 80 on PFF this year, while only one rotational piece has graded out below the baseline score of 60. As a comparison, not a single Virginia Tech defender has graded out above an 80, and six regulars (not counting the departed Michael Short) are below a 60. This is a solid, sound, physical defense across the board. Co-coordinators Mark Hagen and Ron English have done a great job.
I just thought I’d throw this in here, but former Virginia Tech defensive end Justin Beadles (6-5, 270, r-Sr.) is Louisville’s fourth defensive end. Beadles left Blacksburg just a few months after enrolling and later played at Houston and New Mexico State. He’s got 117 snaps on the season. He doesn’t make any plays, and he’s basically just a body who allows Lubin and Bailey to get a rest, though I’m sure he’ll have three sacks on Saturday, because I typed that.
Like all defenses, Louisville can be susceptible to trick plays. On the first play from scrimmage against James Madison, the Dukes ran a perfectly conceived wide receiver pass and the intended target was running wide open. It should have been 7-0 JMU as soon as the game started. However, the wide receiver threw it from Louisville to Cincinnati.
Virginia Tech tailback Marcellous Hawkins was a high school quarterback who threw for over 1,300 yards as a senior, and the Hokies started running some quick option pitches to him last week. With nothing to lose because they aren’t expected to win, this could potentially be a game to break that play out of the playbook, if one exists.
Special Teams
Louisville ranks No. 22 in the country in SF+ this year, which is a combination of the FEI and S&P+ special teams ratings.
The Cardinals struggle with their punting, with two punters combining for a net punting average of 37.03 yards, with ranks No. 115 in the country. However, opponents have only a grand total of seven return yards all season, so it’s unlikely the Hokies can get anything going in that area of the game.
Cooper Ranvier is a good kicker, going 11-of-13 for the season with a long of 50. He’s also 4-of-5 between 40 and 49 yards, so he’s got good range. Oddly enough, opponents have made all eight of their field goal attempts against the Cardinals this season. Meanwhile, 35 of Nick Keller’s 46 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks.
Caullin Lacy has been a very dangerous punt returner this season, averaging 21 yards per return with two touchdowns, including a 93-yarder. The touchdowns came against Eastern Kentucky and Bowling Green, so it wasn’t the best competition, but he’s still very capable.
Virginia Tech-Louisville Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.Final Thoughts
Two years ago, Louisville thrashed Virginia Tech 34-3. The Cardinals had huge matchup advantages going into that game, and their advantages this year are probably even greater considering the Hokies’ offensive line has gotten worse.I think Tech will do a little better this time around since Philip Montgomery is a much better coach than his predecessor, but Louisville will still be a bridge too far. This Cardinals team reminds me of so many Frank Beamer teams through the years. They are dominant defensively and they do just enough on offense.
Chris’ Prediction: Louisville 31, Virginia Tech 13
Will Stewart (Founder): Man, that Louisville defense is tough. I haven’t read Chris’ prediction, so I don’t know if he mentioned this, but CC has been saying for weeks that Louisville or Miami might break the Hokies’ scoring streak, which dates back to 1995 and is the fourth-longest streak in the nation, per Wikipedia.
There’s no way I’m going to pick Virginia Tech to get shut out, but it’s on the table as a possibility.
As for the Louisville offense, the tailback rushing attack is stout, featuring a Brown-out (Isaac and Keyjuan) totaling 115 rushes, 879 yards (7.6 ypc) and 8 TDs. If the Cards have to pass, the Hokies are going to have a tough time covering Chris Bell, based on what I’ve seen from the VT secondary.
Tall task for the Hokies all the way around.
Will’s Prediction: Louisville 31, Virginia Tech 10
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): I see this one playing out similarly to the 2023 meeting where the Cardinals pushed the Hokies around with ease. Virginia Tech had just 140 yards in that game, including Kyron Drones’ 69 passing yards, and was mauled at the line of scrimmage to Louisville’s 382 yards.
I expect this one to be slightly closer, but I don’t think the Hokies have the horses to compete against the Cardinals for four quarters. I think believe will be the most well-coached team Tech plays all season and it’ll show up on the scoreboard.
David’s Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia Tech 10
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Despite all the good vibes coming off of last week, this doesn’t feel like a great matchup for the Hokies. The Cardinals can beat you in a variety of ways, something it didn’t feel like a one-dimensional Cal team did last week (despite the way it ran around the goal line). This Louisville defense is good, though teams have put up points against it.
I have the Cardinals surging to make the ACC title game here down the stretch, so obviously I have a lot of faith in them. Tech’s effort is there. I just don’t know if it’s got enough dudes to keep up in this one.
Andy’s Prediction: Louisville 35, Virginia Tech 22
Nick Brown (Director of Media): I haven’t missed college once since graduating. Eight a.m. classes in McBryde Hall are not something you look back and say, “Man, I wish I was back in school again.” But seeing the large group of students waving their shirts around for three hours made me wish I was still in school, because me and my friends absolutely would have joined the party. I expect an even LARGER group of shirtless young men Saturday, especially early on when temperatures are in the 50s.
A rowdy student section, combined with a ranked opponent, will create a rowdy crowd in Lane Stadium. This environment will impact the score and it’ll be close at halftime. In fact, I expect the Hokies to have a lead at the break.
The lead won’t last. Louisville’s offense isn’t elite, even with a great running back. The Hokies’ defense has thrived when the quarterback is not a threat to run, and last I checked, Miller Moss has -77 rushing yards on the season. The difference between Louisville and some of Tech’s last few opponents is that Louisville has a great defense. It will suffocate Philip Montgomery’s boys in the second half.
Nick's Prediction: Louisville 27, Virginia Tech 16
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24-11 |
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44-20 |
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 45-26 |
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38-6 |
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23-21 |
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 30-23 |
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35-20 |
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42-34 (2 OT) |
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28-16 |
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34-14 |
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34-17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Gamecocks Win by 11+ (39%) |  |
Gamecocks 24, Hokies 11 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (50%) |  |
Vanderbilt 44, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (36%) | |
ODU 45, VT 26 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (62%) | |
Hokies 38, Terriers 6 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ (59%) | |
Hokies 23, Wolfpack 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (58%) | |
Deacs 30, Hokies 23 | |
| Jackets Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Jackets 35, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (52%) | |
Hokies 42, Golden Bears 34 (2 OT) | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ (64%) | |
Cardinals 28, Hokies 16 | |
| Seminoles Win by 11+ (49%) | |
Seminoles 34, Hokies 14 | |
| Canes Win by 11+ (79%) | |
Hurricanes 34, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |