- Virginia Tech at NC State: Saturday, September 27, at 7 p.m. ET (The CW) from Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, N.C.
- Betting line: NC State -10.0
- Roster cards: Click here
- Raleigh weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
*NC State has wins over Virginia and Wake Forest, but the game against the Cavaliers was a non-conference contest. #goacc
Head coach Dave Doeren is in his 13th season in charge of the Wolfpack and has posted a 90-66 overall record with 10 bowl appearances. He’s not quite what NC State fans want, but his tenure has been solid overall. He’s assembled a team in 2025 that seems to be quite good on one side of the ball and quite lacking on the other.
Meanwhile, no depth chart was released for Virginia Tech, and the availability report that is required for all ACC games will not be released until after this preview is released (8 p.m. ET on Thursday). Last week, the Hokies were without a number of key players against Wofford. Will they be missing key starters like Caleb Woodson and Quentin Reddish again?
The NC State Offense By The Numbers
The Wolfpack’s strength is on the offensive side of the ball. Let’s go over some key statistics, and we’ll start with the traditional stats:
• Rushing: 174.25 ypg, No. 65 nationally
• Yards per carry: 4.65, No. 61 nationally
• Passing: 270.8 ypg, No. 34 nationally
• Passer Rating: 154.75, No. 39 nationally
• Total offense: 445 ypg, No. 38 nationally
• TFL allowed: 8 per game, No. 134 nationally
• Sacks allowed: 1 per game, No. 34 nationally
NC State is solid across the board and very balanced, with one exception. It allows a lot of tackles for loss in the running game. Considering how often opponents play in the backfield, it’s impressive that the Wolfpack’s total offense numbers are so high. It will be key for the Hokies to force long-yardage situations.
The advanced stats paint a pretty similar picture with NC State ranking No. 41 nationally in OF+, which is a combination of the FEI and S&P+ offensive metrics. The Wolfpack is an impressive No. 23 in the country in offensive available yards. This is a team that moves the football extremely well, though turnovers have hurt on a few occasions, particularly in last week’s loss to Duke.
NC State Tailback Hollywood Smothers
Example No. 1 of “how to make sure your kid is a college football player by giving him a really cool name” is NC State running back Hollywood Smothers (5-11, 195, r-So.). Smothers also happens to be a really good player.He’s originally from North Carolina, though he didn’t play as a senior in high school due to eligibility issues. He spent one season at Oklahoma before transferring to NC State. He got on the field a lot last season and put up very good numbers:
• Rushing: 89 carries, 571 yards, 6.4 ypc, 6 TDs
• Receiving: 19 catches, 263 yards, 13.8 avg, 2 TDs
He’s been even better so far in 2025. He’s already caught 15 passes and currently leads the ACC in carries (80) and rushing yards (503) while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
Here’s a look at Smothers’ rushing production in each game thus far:
• East Carolina: 22 carries, 76 yards, 3.5 ypc, 1 TD
• Virginia: 17 carries, 140 yards, 8.2 ypc, 2 TDs
• Wake Forest: 24 carries, 164 yards, 6.8 ypc
• Duke: 17 carries, 123 yards, 7.2 ypc, 1 TD
East Carolina’s rush defense is ranked No. 20 nationally, higher than UVa (No. 31), Wake (No. 61) and Duke (No. 82). All of them rank higher than Virginia Tech (No. 87).
This is the Hokies’ first ACC game of the season, but it’s entirely possible that Smothers is the best running back they will face all year. He’s equally dangerous in the passing game, so Tech will have to be aware of him at all times.
NC State Quarterback CJ Bailey
NC State quarterback CJ Bailey (6-6, 213, So.) is a talented player who has had some excellent games so far in his young career, including an 18-of-20 performance last year against Stanford when he threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns. However, last week’s game against Duke wasn’t among his best performances.
Though he completed 29-of-39 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns, he also tossed up three costly interceptions and had a lost fumble on a botched read option exchange with Smothers. Below are the highlights of that game, and you easily see his talent level, but you’ll also see that he has a habit of making critical errors (and you’ll also see a few more impressive runs by Smothers).
• Passing: 288-of-430 (67%) for 3,496 yards, 8.1 YPA, 24 TDs, 14 INTs
• Rushing: 127 carries for 372 yards, 2.9 ypc, 8 TDs
Those are mostly impressive passing numbers for such a young player, but again, he has a tendency to toss up some interceptions.
Bailey generally prefers to sit in the pocket and make throws, but he can run when needed. He had a nine-carry, 82-yard performance against Georgia Tech last season and followed that up with 14 carries for 54 yards the next week against North Carolina. He had six carries for 44 yards and two touchdowns against UVa this season.
Though it’s not necessarily a huge part of the Wolfpack’s gameplan, considering how much trouble the Hokies had in defending designed quarterback runs by Diego Pavia (11 carries, 61 yards) and Colton Joseph (eight carries, 63 yards, 1 TD), we could see Bailey get involved in the running game more this week.
Then again, Virginia Tech has had trouble stopping most everything this year (except against South Carolina, whose offense has been pretty bad) so the Wolfpack has plenty of options.
Balance In The Passing Game
Six NC State players have already caught 10 or more passes this season, with a seventh catching nine. It’s not just the wide receivers carrying the load, either. It’s a balanced effort across all positions, with a tight end leading the team in receptions and Smothers tied for second.
Tight end Justin Joly (6-3, 261, Sr.) is a transfer from UConn who was a Preseason First Team All-ACC pick this summer. Through four games, he leads the Wolfpack in receptions with 18 and is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with two. I’ve read some online reports that suggest he could be picked as high as the fourth round next spring, but regardless, he’s a very good college player.
Terrell Anderson (6-2, 192, So.) played for the Grimsley Whirlies in Greensboro has been NC State’s top wide receiver so far. He got his feet wet as a true freshman last season and has 15 catches for 273 yards and two touchdowns in 2025, including a 75-yarder.
It wouldn’t be correct to say that the Wolfpack will blow you off the field with talent in the passing game, but it’s a solid group that seems to be well-coached and has balanced production across all positions. Overall, this is a difficult offense to face.
The NC State Defense Struggles To Keep Up
While things have mostly gone well for the Wolfpack on offense, things haven’t been trending as well on the defensive side of the ball. NC State lost defensive coordinator Tony Gibson in the offseason, with Gibson taking the head coaching position at Marshall. DJ Eliot took over and has past coordinating experience with Kentucky, Colorado, Kansas and Temple before spending a year coaching the linebackers of the Philadelphia Eagles.Former Virginia Tech assistants Charley Wiles (defensive line) and Brian Mitchell (cornerbacks) are still on the staff, but the defense has seen a drop-off in performance thus far in 2025.
Here are the traditional stats:
• Rushing: 123.75 ypg, No. 54 nationally
• Yards per carry: 4.19, No. 83 nationally
• Passing: 290.3 ypg, No. 133 nationally
• Passer Rating: 138.44, No. 99 nationally
• Total offense: 414 ypg, No. 114 nationally
• TFL: 6.25 per game, No. 37 nationally
• Sacks: 1.25 per game, No. 105 nationally
Those numbers aren’t pretty. The Wolfpack has failed to stop the run and the pass but has been especially ineffective against opposing quarterbacks.
In the advanced metrics, the Wolfpack ranks No. 81 in DF+ and also No. 81 in defensive available yards. In short, opponents have found it pretty easy to move the ball against this defense — and even easier to find the end zone, with NC State allowing 29.3 points per game (No. 107 nationally).
The only ACC school that ranks lower than NC State in total defense right now is Syracuse (No. 128). Only five Power 4 programs rank lower than the Wolfpack, and two of them (UCLA and Oklahoma State) have fired their head coach. In short, Saturday night’s game represents one of Virginia Tech’s best opportunities to move the football this season.
The Wolfpack has a lot of seniors on defense, yet this group still hasn’t performed well to this point. Big plays have been the main culprit. Check out the number of overall big plays allowed and where they rank:
• 20-plus yards: 18, No. 98
• 30-plus yards: 11, No. 118
• 40-plus yards: 6, No. 117
Big passing plays in particular have given this defense issues:
• 20-plus yards: 13, No. 96
• 30-plus yards: 7, No. 110
• 40-plus yards: 3, No. 80
The Wolfpack has even given up two passing plays of 75-plus yards.
On the surface, this NC State defense isn’t bad, but when you factor in big plays, it becomes quite bad. Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, big plays count. The Hokies will need to find a way to exploit that weakness.
Here are some NC State defensive players to watch:
LB Sean Brown (6-0, 225, r-Sr.): Brown is tops on the team with 39 tackles and is also tied for the lead with 3.5 tackles for loss. He’s a veteran with over 1,700 career snaps, though he seemed to play his best as a sophomore in 2023.
JACK Cian Slone (6-4, 252, r-Sr.): Look for Slone lining up on the edge as a DE/OLB type. He left last week’s game against Duke with an injury, though he is expected back on Saturday night. He hasn’t picked up the stats yet, but he is NC state’s highest grading defensive player thus far (89.5 PFF grade) and has been very difficult to block in the run game. He is a transfer from Utah State.
DE Sabastian Harsh (6-3, 263, r-Sr.): Harsh has 3.5 tackles for loss this year and, like Slone, has been very good against the run.
The Wolfpack has some major issues in the secondary, especially at safety, and Kyron Drones and Virginia Tech’s receivers need to take advantage. However, the fact that NC State will have two very good players lineup up on the edge against the Hokies’ inexperienced and mismatched offensive line is a major concern.
Special Teams Worries?
The Wolfpack has had some issues on special teams this season, most notably in the form of field goal kicking. It’s used two different kickers this season — Kanoah Vinesett and Nick Konieczynski — and they’ve gone a combined 3-of-6 with one blocked. Neither player has made a kick beyond 38 yards. Vinesett has experience, going 18-of-24 last season, while Konieczynski is a redshirt freshman.
Overall, NC State ranks No. 117 in SF+ so far this season. It has allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown and opponents are averaging 16.4 yards per punt return. If the Hokies want to pull an upset here, it would be very beneficial to figure out a way for special teams to score (or to at least set up a touchdown with a short field). Not having punt returner Tucker Holloway, who entered the transfer portal on Thursday, might make that more difficult.
Injuries/availability
Virginia Tech-NC State Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.Final Thoughts
I believe Virginia Tech will find more success on offense this week than it found against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. This NC State defense seems pretty leaky across the board, and it doesn’t sound like it’ll stress the Hokies in as many areas as those previous opponents. However, with the youth of Virginia Tech’s offensive line, there will still be inconsistencies.
Defensively, the Hokies played well against what seems to be a bad South Carolina offense, then got throttled by the Commodores and Monarchs. I don’t think the Tech defense is as good as it seemed against South Carolina, but I also don’t think it’s as bad as it seemed in those other two losses. But will Woodson, Reddish and James Djonkam play? Will anybody else decide to opt out? I have no idea at the time I’m writing this preview.
NC State’s offense isn’t elite, but it is good, and quite a bit better than South Carolina’s, in my opinion. It’s not quite the well-oiled machine like Vanderbilt, but I like the balance, and as long as Bailey doesn’t have one of his off days, it’s hard to see the Hokies slowing them down for four quarters.
This is a winnable game, but it will take a great effort from Virginia Tech and probably some help from NC State in the form of some Bailey interceptions.
Chris’ Prediction: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 24
Will Stewart (Founder): In my “Buy or Sell” picks this week, I leaned on the side of the offenses doing well in this game (with the exception of the QBs combining to complete 65 percent or more of their passes — I sold that one).
I did that before reading Chris’ preview, and now that I’ve read his preview, I still feel good about my Buy or Sell picks, which were based on researching statistics for both teams.
That makes this game really easy to predict. For me, it boils down to a belief that both offenses will have a relatively good night, but the NC State offense starts from a better, more explosive place.
So, in a game where I expect a lot of points to be scored (relatively speaking), I expect the Wolfpack to have a better go of it.
Will’s Prediction: NC State 38, Virginia Tech 27
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): While last week was a step in the right direction for the Hokies, I’m going to need to see them play well against power conference team before I believe that they’re going to seriously compete in any of these ACC games. Add the unknown roster situation, with the possibility that a few players might suit up as they ponder their future, and there’s even more reason to be doubtful of Tech in this one. The O-line remains a big sticking point for me. Who’s healthy and are they ready to play against ACC competition? I have my doubts. And that affects the entire operation. Give me the Wolfpack in this one by a comfortable margin.
Andy’s Prediction: NC State 34, Virginia Tech 20
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): Of the eight ACC contests in front of the Hokies, I believe this is one of their best opportunities to get a win. They looked good last week against a bad FCS team but struggled against FBS competition in the first three games. It’s difficult to gauge what kind of performance we’ll see in Raleigh.
I think it comes down to the Virginia Tech defense against the explosive NC State offense, and the latter has the edge. While I think the Hokies will be OK offensively, they’re still banged up on the offensive line and have their inconsistencies. The Wolfpack’s dynamic and balanced offense is the difference in this one as the home team pulls away late.
David’s Prediction: NC State 41, Virginia Tech 24
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Virginia Tech scored its final points against Wofford with 10:52 to go in the fourth quarter. I looked at Carter Hill and former Tech Sideline wrestling beat writer Jack Brizendine and said, “Hey, look, that’s my score prediction.” I thought that the Hokies would score again, so I didn’t celebrate. They didn’t, proving that this guy knows ball! (Whatever you do, do NOT bring up my prior three picks.)
The Hokies are feeling a little more normal this week and coming off of a dominant win is always a good feeling, no matter who the opponent is. NC State, on the other hand, is coming off of a demoralizing loss to Duke. Despite being 3-1, the fans are ramping up their pressure on Dave Doeren. (Watch our NC State beat writer interview with Noah Fleischman here.)
This game is going to be DISGUSTING. Unfortunately, they are calling for heavy rain all day, and honestly, I am a tiny bit worried about it even being played due to the forecast. Rain typically helps the defenses, but with how bad both of these teams are at tackling, I think it’s actually going to help the offenses. Both teams will rush for over 200 yards and the Hokies will hit the 30-point mark for a second straight week.
That doesn’t mean I think they’ll win, though.
Nick’s Prediction: NC State 38, Virginia Tech 30
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24-11 |
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44-20 |
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 45-26 |
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38-6 |
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23-21 |
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 30-23 |
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35-20 |
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42-34 (2 OT) |
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28-16 |
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34-14 |
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34-17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Gamecocks Win by 11+ (39%) |  |
Gamecocks 24, Hokies 11 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (50%) |  |
Vanderbilt 44, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (36%) | |
ODU 45, VT 26 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (62%) | |
Hokies 38, Terriers 6 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ (59%) | |
Hokies 23, Wolfpack 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (58%) | |
Deacs 30, Hokies 23 | |
| Jackets Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Jackets 35, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (52%) | |
Hokies 42, Golden Bears 34 (2 OT) | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ (64%) | |
Cardinals 28, Hokies 16 | |
| Seminoles Win by 11+ (49%) | |
Seminoles 34, Hokies 14 | |
| Canes Win by 11+ (79%) | |
Hurricanes 34, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |