- Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt: Saturday, September 6, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Virginia Tech -1.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
The opponent is Vanderbilt, who started the Hokies’ downward spiral in last season’s opener in Nashville. The Commodores took a 17-3 lead into halftime, and though Tech came back to take the lead, it couldn’t close, eventually falling in overtime.
There are a lot of new faces in Blacksburg since last year’s meeting. Meanwhile, there are a lot of familiar faces on the Vanderbilt sideline, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Commodores have assembled an extremely senior-heavy depth chart and have a ton of experience.
Before the season began, the narrative around the Hokies was that they would most likely drop the opener to South Carolina, but they’d have to beat Vanderbilt in Week 2 at home. If they didn’t and dropped to 0-2 with Brent Pry being 16-23 as the head coach, then things would get rough.
With the Vanderbilt game just two days away, that’s exactly where we’re at. The Hokies, and Pry, need to win this one badly.
Diego Pavia And The Vanderbilt Offense
Coming off a 2-10 (0-8 SEC) season in 2023, Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea knew he needed a change, and he needed it quickly. He needed some new coaches and a quarterback, and he turned to New Mexico State for both.He hired then-Aggies head coach Jerry Kill as his top advisor and brought in offensive coordinator Tim Beck, who was previously a long-time head coach and coordinator at Pittsburg State, where he went 82-35. Those two are very good offensive minds. To complement those guys, NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia also transferred to Vanderbilt. With Kill and Beck, he had coaches who already knew exactly how to use Pavia because they had already spent two seasons with him.
Just like that, Lea improved his situation tremendously. He might only be the third-best head coach on his own coaching staff, behind Kill (175-115 career record) and Beck. Yet, having those two guys, plus a legitimate quarterback in Pavia, helped turn the Commodores’ fortunes around. They went 7-6 in 2024 and beat No. 1 Alabama, and with the exception of the early-season loss to Georgia State, the coaching staff got the most out of its talent.
That group returns intact, and Pavia (6-0, 207, r-Sr.) torched Virginia Tech in last season’s opener, going 12-of-16 (75%) for 190 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 104 yards and a score on 26 carries. Lea’s staff thoroughly outcoached former Hokies defensive coordinator Chris Marve while Pavia out-toughed Tech’s players. It was an impressive performance.
Despite his size, Pavia is perhaps the toughest quarterback in the country and can carry the load. He hasn’t had another 26-carry performance since, but only once did he have fewer than 11 carries in a game. Moreover, his 192 rushes over the course of the 2024 season was third-most nationally amongst quarterbacks. (Army’s Bryson Daily was the No. 1 QB on the list at 310 while Jacksonville State’s Tyler Huff had 227. Pavia also had nine more totes than Virginia Tech running back Bhayshul Tuten’s 183!)
Vanderbilt’s passing game slowed down as the season progressed, the film got out and the scheduled toughened up with SEC play. Pavia might’ve gotten worn down a bit with all of the running, too. Take a look at his stats from his first six games and compare them to his last seven:
- First six: 85-of-123 (69.1%) for 1,116 yards, 10 TDs, 1 INT
- Last seven: 92-of-175 (52.6%) for 1,177 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs
His completion percentage dropped like a rock. Only once in the final seven games did he complete more than 60 percent of his passes, and twice he was below 50 percent. He never completed 20 passes in a game all year, and twice he completed fewer than 10.
Pavia’s passing success revolves around the running game. If it’s not working, the passing struggles. But if the Commodores can control the chains and the clock and their defense is playing well, their passing game can be deadly. It’s exactly the type of offense that they need to run with his skill set; however, if things go south, it can be tough for them to pivot.
In Vandy’s seven wins, Pavia averaged 20.1 passing attempts per game. In its six losses, he averaged 26.2. The Hokies have to keep the Commodores behind the chains and put them in a position where they have to throw it more than they want.
It’s worth noting that Pavia completed 20 passes in a game for the first time in his career last week against Charleston Southern in a 45-3 thumping. It’s also worth noting that Charleston Southern went 1-11 while playing FCS ball last season, meaning the level of competition was extremely poor. I’m guessing that not a lot has changed for Vanderbilt from last year, but we won’t know until it faces better competition.
Sedrick Alexander (5-9, 207, Jr.) returns as Vanderbilt’s top running back after rushing for 586 yards (3.6 ypc) last season. He’s a physical back who had 69 yards and a touchdown against the Hokies last year. (Naturally, that was his season-high in yards.) Besides Pavia, no other Vanderbilt player had more than three carries against Charleston Southern, so we don’t know a lot about the quality of the running backs right now.
Three wide receivers will get the majority of the reps. Here are their career numbers:
- Junior Sherrill (5-11, 203, Jr.): 52 catches, 737 yards, 7 TDs
- Richie Hoskins (6-1, 200, r-Sr.): 19 catches, 223 yards, 4 TDs
- Tre Richardson (5-10, 175, Jr.): 5 catches, 74 yards
Richards is a JUCO transfer, thus the low career numbers. Those three are the only Vanderbilt receivers who played more than 12 snaps in the opener. Some of that is because the Commodores probably lack depth at receiver, but some of it is because they prefer a lot of heavy tight end formations so they can try and establish the running game (which creates a more efficient passing game).
Four tight ends played at least 15 snaps and two more got a few snaps in garbage time. Eli Stowers (6-4, 235, r-Sr.) followed Kill, Beck and Pavia from New Mexico State and is their main man. For as much deserved credit as Pavia gets, Stowers might be their best offensive player. He can line up as a traditional tight end or in the slot, and he caught 69 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns last season.
Vanderbilt’s offensive line obviously played well in its win over an overmatched opponent. However, the Commodores went transfer-heavy in the portal up front and are breaking in a number of new players. They have yet to be tested against a good defensive front, which they’ll face on Saturday night.
The Commodores played three offensive tackles against Charleston Southern, all three of which are transfers. However, they are all very experienced players.
- Bryce Henderson (6-8, 325, r-Sr.): South Dakota, 1,927 career snaps
- Isaia Glass (6-4, 311, r-Sr.): Oklahoma State, Arizona State, 1,669 career snaps
- Orion Irving (6-6, 320, Sr.): Sam Houston, 1,029 career snaps
Those guys are veterans and will be going up against experienced Virginia Tech defensive linemen.
The interior of the offensive line also features a few transfers, including two from Liberty (one via West Virginia and Matt Moore) and the other from Virginia Tech. That’s right, Gunner Givens (6-5, 332, r-Jr.) got his first extensive college playing time last week. He started his career as a defensive lineman before transitioning to the offensive line in Blacksburg. The Lord Botetourt product played 36 snaps and was one of the Commodores’ high-graders (74.3 grade, per PFF) against Charleston Southern. It will be interesting to see if he continues to earn playing time at Vanderbilt after never making it above third string for the departed Ron Crook.
One big key for Virginia Tech in this game is to do well on early downs. Pavia can thrive in short-yardage situations when running and passing are both good options. However, this isn’t the type of offense that is built to play in third-and-long situations.
Vanderbilt has a ton of experience offensively, with juniors and seniors across the board. It’s mostly the same for the Virginia Tech defense. It will be interesting to see what Hokies defensive coordinator Sam Siefkes can draw up after an impressive game plan last week against South Carolina.
The Vanderbilt Defense
Steve Gregory was promoted from associate defensive coordinator to full-time defensive coordinator in the offseason, but Lea probably still has his hands all over this defense.Last year’s game featured one of the biggest coaching mismatches you’ll see. The Vanderbilt coaching staff manipulated Tech into doing what it wanted in the first half. The Commodores would change their alignments and coverages as soon as the play clock got below 15 seconds and Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones could no longer hear then-offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen (helmet communications are turned off with 15 seconds on the play clock, per NCAA rules), and he was left to himself to check into a new play after the defense re-aligned.
He wasn’t adequately prepared and it became a Drones vs. Lea mental battle, which Lea won. Tech only had the ball for 11:36 in the first half (compared to Vanderbilt’s 18:24) and Tuten, a future NFL running back, only had two carries in that span. This year’s game shouldn’t go the same way with a more experienced offensive coordinator like Philip Montgomery at the helm.
Vanderbilt has a defense loaded with veterans, just like its offensive side of the ball. At one of the two defensive end positions, all four players listed on the depth chart are seniors. Of the seven defensive tackles, four are seniors and two are juniors. Of the inside linebackers, five are seniors and one is a junior. This defense has veterans all over the field, which is a matchup I don’t particularly like with Tech’s offensive line.
The Commodores played 33 players in their rout of Charleston Southern, so they’ll be fresh — on top of one extra day to prepare. They probably won’t play that many against the Hokies, but with so many experienced players, they aren’t going to be afraid to use their depth. This will be one of the mentally-strongest defenses the Hokies face this season.
Defensive end Miles Capers (6-4, 249, r-Sr.) has 837 career snaps. He hasn’t been a spectacular player in his career, but he’s been solid. Bryan Longwell (6-1, 240, Jr.) is a veteran linebacker with 844 snaps under his belt and was very good against the run last season. (Those two combined for 16 tackles, 2.5 TFLs and half a sack against Tech last year.) They’ve got lots of guys like Capers and Longwell across the board. They’re solid, experienced and dependable.
The guy who concerns me more than anyone is defensive tackle Glenn Seabrooks III (6-3, 349, So.). Though he’s one of the younger guys on defense, he’s got great size. He played very well last season as a freshman, especially against the run, as you might expect. He was very good against the Hokies in his first college game. I’m very concerned about how the young, inexperienced and relatively undersized Kyle Altuner (6-3, 296, r-Fr.) and Layth Ghannam (6-5, 302, r-So.) hold up against a player his size.
Virginia Tech’s best chance of success against the Vanderbilt defense would seem to be down the field. Things are a lot more questionable in the secondary.
CB Martel Hight (6-0, 188, Jr.): Hight has been a solid player, though he’s allowed a 71.3 percent completion rate (62-of-87) in his career to accompany 11 tackles. He’s experienced with just over 1,000 career snaps, but he can be had. Also, you could see him lined up in the slot a little bit on offense. He got one snap there against Charleston Southern.
CB Kolbey Taylor (6-3, 190, r-Sr.): Taylor previously played for Wyoming, where he wasn’t very good. Then he transferred to Vanderbilt last year, where he graded out even worse, according to PFF (48.6 overall and 48.4 in coverage).
S Marlen Sewell (6-1, 205, r-Sr.): Sewell has been a career backup and has 521 career snaps as a redshirt senior.
S CJ Heard (5-11, 210, So.): Heard is the youngest member of the secondary, but he’s also played the best football, albeit at a lower level. He started as a freshman last season for Florida Atlantic and was very good, though he struggled in his only Power 4 game against Michigan State.
The Commodores will rotate in the secondary, but their starters are somewhat questionable, which means their backups are even more questionable.
The Virginia Tech passing game hit some big plays down the field last week against South Carolina. It’ll have to do more of the same against Vanderbilt, but it’ll also have to be much more consistent on a down-to-down basis.
Special Teams Players To Watch
Junior Sherrill should returns kicks, assuming he plays. (He did not play last week.) He had one kickoff return for a touchdown last season against Tennessee and is capable.
Virginia Tech gave up a game-changing punt return for a touchdown last week, and Martel Hight is probably licking his chops after seeing it. He had a punt return for a touchdown last season, though it came against Alcorn State. However, he also had returns of 22 yards (VT), 15 yards (Texas) and 39 yards (Auburn) in 2024. Since Vanderbilt is trying him a bit at wide receiver, you know he’s capable with the ball in his hands.
Brock Taylor is a very good kicker who was 18-of-21 last season. He was a Lou Groza Award semifinalist whose longest effort was from 57 yards. He is a very capable kicker who was 2-of-3 against the Hokies last year with makes from 43 and 53 and a miss from 43 (that would’ve won the game). If this one comes down to a field goal contest, flip a coin. He and John Love are both really good.
Nick Haberer is the punter. An Australian, which is very common with punters these days, he started his entire career at Washington State, where he was very productive before moving to Nashville.
The Power Conference Losing Streak Needs To End
Note: Our friend Shelton Moss reached out to us with some not-so-good stats. Rather than writing them up myself, I decided to just copy most of Shelton's email to us, so this section of the article is written by him, unless otherwise noted.
• Duke: 14 games (1998-2007)
• Duke: 14 games (1998-2007)
Virginia Tech-Vanderbilt Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.Final Thoughts
I spent the offseason thinking Virginia Tech would win this game. But then I saw how the Tech offense looked against South Carolina and started to have some doubts. Kyron Drones didn’t play well, the Hokies seem to lack explosiveness at tailback and the offensive line is questionable. It’s hard to see this team beating too many opponents by double digits.That puts me between a rock and a hard place. I always said that I wasn’t going to pick the Hokies to win a one-score game until I saw it happen, but I also said I was going to pick them to beat Vandy. So… predicting it’s close, how can I pick them to beat Vandy when I haven’t seem them win a one-score game?
I can take solace in the fact that if Brent Pry does one thing well, he gets his team ready for home night games. Tech is 6-1 at home at night under Pry, with the lone loss coming way back in 2022 against West Virginia. The last five, all wins, have gone like this:
- 2023: VT 36, Old Dominion 17
- 2023: VT 38, Pitt 21
- 2023: VT 38, Syracuse 10
- 2024: VT 42, BC 21
- 2024: VT 37, UVa 17
That’s an average margin of victory of 21 points. Bhayshul Tuten played such a huge role in those last four wins, though:
- Pitt: 24 carries, 109 yards, 4 catches, 37 yards, 1 total TD
- Cuse: 18 carries, 118 yards, 1 catch, 11 yards, 1 total TD
- BC: 18 carries, 266 yards, 1 catch, 20 yards, 4 total TDs
- UVa: 18 carries, 124 yards, 2 total TDs
He made explosive plays for the Hokies — plays that I’m not sure can be found in the running game based on what I saw on Sunday in Atlanta.
I can point and counterpoint myself to death. I certainly can’t see Tech blowing out Vanderbilt, though. If it managed to do that, it would be a good sign for the rest of the season (and an indicator that the South Carolina defense is pretty darn good). I suspect the Gamecocks defense is good, but I also think the Tech offense has some pretty serious issues.
I’ve picked 13 Virginia Tech games correctly and never hesitated in any of those picks, but I’m at a loss for which way to go this week. I suppose streaks are made to end. Ironically, the last game I picked incorrectly was the Vanderbilt game last season. I hope I’m wrong, because if I am, the natives are about to get even more restless.
Chris’ Prediction: Vanderbilt 20, Virginia Tech 16
Will Stewart (Founder and General Manager):
This is generally perceived as a turning-point game. I don’t think many people thought Virginia Tech would win both of the first two games, but most people agree on one thing: With a loss to South Carolina already in the books, the Vanderbilt game looms as a must-win.
Sure, there are 10 more regular-season games left. “Anything can happen.” But lose this one and Brent Pry is 1-6 in his last seven games, and the ledge he’s been standing on for a while will start to crumble from underneath his feet. After an encouraging end to 2023 for Pry and Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt started this slide with its opening-game win in 2024. The Commodores can deal another serious blow to Pry’s future at Tech with a win Saturday night.
Who’s going to save Virginia Tech from an 0-2 start? What players are going to step up? That’s not clear. Like South Carolina, Vanderbilt is going to have arguably the best player on the field, and he’s at the most important position on the field.
Sometimes I make picks completely as a leap of faith. This is one of those times. I don’t feel great picking the Hokies to win, but I don’t want to pick them to lose.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Vanderbilt 21 (cut the one-score game jokes)
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): For the first time since the NC State game in November 2023, Chris and I have different picks for a game. (I got the Wolfpack right in that one, by the way.) Long live our 13-game streak of correctly picking games. It was fun while it lasted. He picked Vanderbilt, and I’m picking Virginia Tech this week. (In impressive fashion, Chris and I are both 22-5 since the start of 2023, including a 12-1 mark last year.)
I felt OK about picking the Hokies before I read the preview, and my opinion wasn’t really changed. Heck, I felt OK about picking them in this one before the season. It’s a toss-up, but it’s in Blacksburg, and this was a game Tech would’ve won last year if it had shown up for more than one quarter.
I was impressed with what Sam Siefkes showed against South Carolina, and though the offense was hit-or-miss, it moved the ball OK. Is the consistency there? We’ll see. But this is also a better-conditioned team, and my gut feel is that the Hokies have a good approach to this game and will right the ship. They caged LaNorris Sellers well and I expect more of the same — albeit in a different way — against Diego Pavia.
An interesting stat: Tech’s last non-conference Power 4 win at home was over Nebraska in 2009. Vanderbilt’s last non-conference Power 4 win on the road was at Wake Forest in 2012... when Brent Pry was James Franklin’s co-defensive coordinator. Something has to give.
Part of me can’t believe I’m writing this, but I’m picking Tech to win a one-score game. Yes, you read that correctly. It’s bound to happen at some point, right? This feels like the time. And boy, the fan base could sure use it.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Vanderbilt 20
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): If ever there was a moment for the Brent Pry era to make its mark, this is it. Vanderbilt isn’t a top-10 team, but it’s no pushover. And if the prospect of starting 0-2 in a make-or-break year against a team that embarrassed you in last year’s season opener doesn’t get the competitive juices flowing for this Hokies squad, I don’t know that anything will.
Tech fans used to have a phrase, “In Bud We Trust,” having the utmost confidence that Bud Foster would figure out a defensive game plan to stymie the opponent and, at the very least, give the Hokies a chance. I’m not at that point yet with Sam Siefkes, but I’m certainly encouraged that Virginia Tech’s going to be a handful for the Commodores and Pavia defensively.
Offensively, things can’t go worse for Tech, which did not score a touchdown, offensively or any variety, last week. I like Drones and Co. to bounce back against a slightly less stiff defensive challenge and right the ship. If not, this might be Pry’s point of no return with the fans.
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Vanderbilt 20
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Diego Pavia is BACK! Boy, I know Tech fans love him. Even if you hate him, you have to respect his competitiveness and confidence in not only himself, but his team too. Do I think the Commodores can win a national championship? Heck no, but if you gave him a lie detector test, he would absolutely pass with flying colors while staring you in the eyes. He is a breath of fresh air and brings that old school, college football mentality to the sport. However, all of that confidence ain’t helping him on Saturday.
Vanderbilt’s defense as a whole is not nearly as good as South Carolina’s. The Commodores’ offensive line is not as good as the Gamecocks’, and if Tech could handle LaNorris Sellers relatively well, then I’m not too worried about Pavia. (He’s going to quote this paragraph if they win.)
I’m probably delusional, but I’m feeling a night game Brent Pry signature win in front of a raucous environment. Hokies by three scores.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Vanderbilt 10
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24-11 |
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44-20 |
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 45-26 |
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38-6 |
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23-21 |
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 30-23 |
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35-20 |
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42-34 (2 OT) |
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28-16 |
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34-14 |
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34-17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Gamecocks Win by 11+ (39%) |  |
Gamecocks 24, Hokies 11 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (50%) |  |
Vanderbilt 44, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (36%) | |
ODU 45, VT 26 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (62%) | |
Hokies 38, Terriers 6 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ (59%) | |
Hokies 23, Wolfpack 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (58%) | |
Deacs 30, Hokies 23 | |
| Jackets Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Jackets 35, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (52%) | |
Hokies 42, Golden Bears 34 (2 OT) | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ (64%) | |
Cardinals 28, Hokies 16 | |
| Seminoles Win by 11+ (49%) | |
Seminoles 34, Hokies 14 | |
| Canes Win by 11+ (79%) | |
Hurricanes 34, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |