For a Virginia Tech baseball team in a spot where every game is imperative, this weekend’s series in Pittsburgh against the Panthers is perhaps more pivotal than any.
The series opener comes Friday at 6 p.m. ET before a 3 p.m. start Saturday and a 1 p.m. first pitch on Sunday. Each game will be broadcast on ACC Network Extra.
Pittsburgh will be shrouded in rainy, muggy overcast all weekend, a similar brand of weather that the Hokies (27-18, 11-13 ACC) dealt with in their last series win four weeks ago. Though chillier, they prevailed through a rainy weekend in Notre Dame to take a 2-1 series win over the Fighting Irish. They’re just 2-7 in the ACC since and have lost eight of their last 12.
Just after the Hokies made it back from Indiana, D1Baseball declared them No. 25 in its rankings, as well as a confident regional contender. That was boosted by a top-25 win over No. 20 Troy later that same week.
The road has been far rockier since, with a slew of defeats ranging from tight walk-off losses to “colossal collapses” — Tech head coach John Szefc’s precise description of his team after Tuesday’s 13-4 loss to Liberty. So, with 22 days having passed since that high and the Pitt series inching close, where exactly do the Hokies stand in the tournament landscape? Their outlook is better than it may feel.
D1Baseball, who projected the Hokies as a No. 2 seed before their losses to Duke and Liberty, only knocked them down to a No. 3 seed after the fact. On3 Baseball had them as a No. 2 seed following the Duke series with Baseball America placing them at third in the Knoxville regional. Tech dropped just two spots in RPI (No. 37 to 39) following its loss to the Flames.
The Hokies have experienced more than enough late-season declines as of late, so why is this one judged less harshly? Well, consider their schedule to this point. Eight of their 13 ACC losses have come against teams that are currently ranked, with five of those at the hands of No. 4 North Carolina or No. 5 Florida State.
Four of their five losses to conference foes not currently ranked were at the hands of Georgia Tech and Duke, who sit 35 and 41 in RPI, respectively. The Yellow Jackets are fourth in the league while Duke is fifth, just above No. 17 Louisville.
The quality of Tech’s wins have been superb, too. Those against the Cardinals, No. 13 NC State (20-8) and a sweep at Wake Forest — No. 25 in RPI — are heavy and only bolster its résumé as the season proceeds. It would be wise for the Hokies and their fans to quietly root for those teams the rest of the way.
Also, Tech’s gauntlet of a schedule is winding down. Per D1Baseball, it has the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference when accounting for ELO, finishing with series against Mercer (No. 66 in RPI), Virginia (No. 73) and, of course, the Panthers, who’ve had a tough docket of their own to be No. 60 despite their 21-21 (6-15 ACC) record.
They’ve played — and lost — series against North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, NC State and Georgia Tech. They managed to take a game off of all besides Duke, though — its only time being swept in conference play despite a measly six ACC wins.
Pitt doesn’t do anything especially well in comparison to the rest of the conference, ranking bottom-five in batting average (.272), ERA (6.35) and fielding percentage (.968).
Left-handed pitcher Patrick Gardner (7.22 ERA) is expected to start Game 1 with lefty Ryan Reed (4.53) backing him up on Saturday. Gardner allowed nine hits and four earned runs across 4 ⅓ inning against the Tar Heels last weekend, but he has impressive outings against Virginia (one earned run over six innings) and the Wolfpack (three hits over 6 ⅓) under his belt.
Reed has been more consistent and does well to keep his walks down. He’s pitched three league outings — against North Carolina, Miami and Boston College — with a WHIP below 1.00 and has kept his earned run count below three in every ACC matchup besides at Virginia and Duke.
The Panthers tend to run out of arms by Sunday, hence them lacking a sure starter. One of righties — Drew Lafferty (12.33 ERA) or Kyle Demi (6.11) — is likely to toss, but neither has found much success this season. Pitt is 3-8 on Sundays and has lost by a combined 43-9 margin in its last three outings.
Its offense generally fares better than its pitching, but not by much. The Panthers rank second-to-last in the conference in runs, hits, home runs and slugging (.422). In ACC play, they’re last in the first two categories.
Luke Cantwell (.359 average), Caden Dulin (.338), Ryan Zuckerman (.319) and AJ Nessler (.318) anchor the top of their lineup and can procure offense at times. That’s double the Hokies’ primary lineup batters above .300, with only Sam Tackett (.353) and Ben Watson (.303) at that mark. Cantwell’s 10 home runs this year are more than any Tech batter besides Tackett, who has 12.
For the first time since its last series win — over Notre Dame in early April — Tech is the favored team in an ACC series. Playing like it is imperative. Game 1 begins Friday at 6 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.