If you’re an ACC baseball team, No. 12 North Carolina’s pitching staff is probably the last one you want to see a week after being shut down by No. 9 Florida State’s high-echelon arms.
This weekend in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech is that team. If it can’t find more offensively, this series could be much like the last.
Yet, this weekend can’t be like the last — not if the Hokies (24-13, 9-9 ACC) hope to keep their NCAA Tournament bid away from danger, that is. But the Tar Heels (29-8, 11-7) have won four straight ACC series and their pitching matches up well against any team, especially a hobbled and cold Tech.
Game 1 begins on Friday at 6 p.m. ET followed by 3 p.m. and 1 p.m. starts on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. ACC Network Extra has coverage for the first two games before things pivot to ACC Network on Sunday.
With Treyson Hughes reportedly out for the season and Garrett Michel still attending games on crutches as of last Sunday, neither looks to be able to return this weekend. Catcher Henry Cooke also exited Tuesday’s game against ETSU with a groin injury, so his status for the weekend is in question. Hokies head coach John Szefc declined to provide updates on pitchers Andrew Sentlinger and Madden Clement after the FSU series, saying he would have more information this week.
The Hokies’ pitching staff has been strong despite its injuries, but its lineup is where absences have been felt — especially against the Seminoles last week. A 12-hit, 11 run performance at ETSU on Tuesday was certainly encouraging, but North Carolina’s pitching — first in the ACC in ERA (3.07) by over a point — operates on a higher level, to say the least.
It begins with Jake Knapp and Aidan Haugh, the Tar Heels’ respective Friday and Saturday starters. Knapp is first in the ACC in ERA (1.58) with a 7-0 record, just 10 walks and a .88 WHIP. Right behind him in the ERA rankings is Haugh (1.86), who’s walked a few more batters than Knapp but leads in the team in strikeouts by eight, ranking 11th in the conference with 56.
Their league-only stats aren’t much more encouraging for Tech, with Knapp and Haugh carrying a combined 8-2 record and still ranking first and second in ERA among arms with more than 30 innings pitched.
Last weekend in UNC’s sweep over a then-red-hot Wake Forest, Knapp and Haugh combined for one earned run and 12 strikeouts in 11-1 and 17-1 wins. Jason DeCaro, the Tar Heels’ Sunday starter who holds a 4.30 ERA this year, kept the mound hot on Sunday en route to a 3-2 win, allowing just two hits and an earned run over 5 ⅔ innings.
DeCaro is a bit more inconsistent than his counterparts, though. He’s 1-3 in league play and entered the Wake Forest series with a 1.64 WHIP in ACC games. Even more motivating for Tech’s left-heavy lineup is that DeCaro, Knapp and Haugh are all right-handed.
The Tar Heels’ bullpen has a bulk of righties, too, and is also generally strong. North Carolina relievers with three or more appearances in conference play carry an average ERA of 3.46. Look for lefty Tom Chmielewski as the first out of the pen — he’s yet to give up an earned run in seven outings this year. Olin Johnson, Cale Bolton, Cameron Seagraves and Matthew Matthijs are all right-handed arms who have also had successful seasons thus far.
North Carolina and the Hokies are a much tighter matchup offensively, with both sitting bottom-six in batting average. The Tar Heels inch ahead in on-base percentage but Tech slugs .438 to their .395. Many of UNC’s bases come via steal, something the Hokies have often been stumped by this year, but it struggles to plate them much of the time — largely because it has just 18 home runs this year in ACC games (compared to VT’s 23).
Hunter Stokely (.331) and Alex Madera (.324) are significant threats at the plate, while Tyson Bass (.306), Jackson Van De Brake (.303) and Luke Stevenson (11 home runs) stick out as well.
With the Hokies’ pitching staff playing well in its own right, this weekend’s series is expected to see grindy, low-scoring contests. The first comes Friday at 6 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.