Hokies baseball’s conference slate has been no cakewalk thus far, and that trend will triple down this weekend as No. 16 Louisville heads to Blacksburg hoping to hand Virginia Tech its third ACC loss in as many series.
Game 1 will come Friday at 4 p.m. ET, followed by a 3 p.m. ET start on Saturday. They’ll close the series at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. ACC Network Extra will have coverage all weekend.
Tech (14-7, 2-4 ACC) is coming off back-to-back wins: a 20-8 run-rule stomping of NC State last Saturday and a 13-2 triumph over VCU on Tuesday.
However, the Cardinals (17-3, 2-1 ACC) have managed an even more impressive week. They claimed a 2-1 series win over then-No. 6 North Carolina last weekend with 8-7 and 5-0 victories. That added to their already-notable series of wins over ranked opponents, including those against No. 8 Texas and then-No. 12 Arizona.
Besides those teams, though, the Cardinals’ average opponent ranks No. 205 on the Massey composite ratings. Still, they’ve proven themselves among the ACC’s best, but the question of why takes some digging.
They aren’t a top-three team in any major offensive or defensive statistical category listed on the ACC’s statistics page, besides third-place rankings in steals (third) and batting average (.330). Before Louisville’s 11-1 win over No. 135 (Massey) North Kentucky on Tuesday, Wake Forest was third in batting.
The Cardinals may not be the best at much, but they’re effective across the board. They’re fifth in the league in slugging (.528), OPS (.957) and sixth in on-base percentage (.429).
Another example of their well-roundedness: They have one player with a top-10 ACC batting average (Jake Munroe, .447) but six in the 38-51 range. Five of those are primary lineup batters, all of whom bat .333 or higher.
They’re 11th in the conference in home runs, but first in triples (10) and third in steals. The Cardinals’ offense thrives off small-ball with a sizable dose of extra-base hits.
On the other side, two of Louisville’s starting arms are top 11 in ERA across the ACC: Peter Michael (1.82) and Patrick Forbes (2.16). Fielding-wise, it owns the fourth-lowest error total (15) and fielding percentage (.978). A team of resounding balance.
With that in mind, Tech head coach John Szefc offered a unique perspective on the series following Tuesday’s win over the Rams.
“Honestly, I’m glad they won against North Carolina,” he said. “Because by math, they’re due to lose. That’s the way you gotta look at it. I’m telling you, when we went over and played Radford two years ago, they had lost 23 straight there due to win for two years. I’ll never forget that.”
The Hokies hope to bounce back against the Cardinals, but finding their own balance against the ACC has been tough thus far.
Ben Watson (.409), Sam Tackett (.375) and Jackson Cherry (.333) have stood out at the plate, but five of Tech’s other primary batters hit .167 or lower in league play. Garrett Michel (.143), David McCann (.071) and David Lewis (.059) have especially struggled, and were all benched in last Saturday’s 20-8 win over NC State — though Michel eventually entered to pinch hit.
Their replacements — Cam Pittman, Harrison Lutterman, Ethan Gibson — have impressed, so it’s possible that their reset period may continue into this weekend, though that’s unlikely for Michel and McCann, who played well on Tuesday.
Regardless, Louisville is a sore sight for a team still adjusting to ACC-level pitching. Forbes (0.92 WHIP) is second in the conference with 45 strikeouts, and Michael (1.14 WHIP) surrendered one hit across 6 ⅓ innings last weekend against the Tar Heels.
If those trends continue, the Hokies will need dominant performances from starting pitchers Brett Renfrow (4.22 ERA in ACC play) on Friday and, if healthy, Logan Eisenreich (one ACC inning thus far) on Sunday.
That’s not to say Forbes and Michael have been infallible. Forbes surrendered four walks and three untimely hits to hand North Carolina — whose hitting numbers are well behind Tech’s this season — a trio of runs last weekend. Michael had a 2.7 WHIP against Western Michigan (No. 267 on the Massey) roughly a month ago, when he allowed three earned runs in as many innings.
Yet, Saturday pitching is somewhat of an Achilles heel for Louisville’s starting staff. Sophomore Parker Detmers (3.94 ERA) and freshman Jack Brown (4.24 ERA) have split Game 2 duties as of late, to similar degrees of mediocrity.
Brown is the more likely option, though he issued four walks, five hits and three earned runs in his losing performance last weekend. Detmers fared well in his last two outings against UIC and St. John’s, but was credited with a loss against then-No. 13 Oklahoma State — the only high-profile offense he’s faced — a month ago. He gave up four runs over three innings that game.
Whoever Louisville head coach Dan McDonnell lands on, they’ll toss across from Tech freshman Jake Marciano (2.96 ERA) on Saturday.
Louisville’s bullpen has seen mixed performances. Three of its typical arms —Wyatt Danilowicz, Ethan Eberle and TJ Schlageter — have posted ERAs under 3.00. The other four — Brennyn Cutts, Justin West, Jared Lessman and Tucker Biven — hold ERAs between 4.26 and 6.75.
Interestingly, almost all the Cardinals’ usual relief arms are left-handed, while all four of its starters throw right-handed. That may make it more difficult for the Hokies — with a heavily lefty lineup — to take advantage of the opposing bullpen.
The Cardinals still boast a well-rounded roster, while the Hokies will need to elevate their play beyond the last two weekends to secure their first ACC series. Game 1 is set for Friday, March 21, at 4 p.m. ET on ACC Network Extra.