- Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota on Friday, January 3, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
- Betting line: Minnesota -7
- Roster cards: Click here
- Charlotte weather: Click here
Minnesota had a solid season, though they are an unbalanced football team. By that, I mean it struggled mightily on offense but was very good on the defensive side of the ball. As a result, it played in a lot of close games this season:
UNC: 19-17 L
Michigan: 27-24 L
USC: 24-17 W
UCLA: 21-17 W
Illinois: 25-17 W
Rutgers: 26-19 L
Penn State: 26-25 L
That’s a 3-4 record in one-score games. If these two teams have anything in common, it’s that they played a number of close contests this season. Of course, Virginia Tech’s results in such games weren’t quite as good.
This preview will take on a little bit different form from our normal previews, thanks to player opt-outs on both sides. It’s tougher to get a read on matchups when so many guys are not playing, and in some cases, we aren’t sure if some guys are playing or not. Instead, I’ll dedicate the first section to determining who is/isn’t playing to the best of my ability. Then I’ll talk about the unfamiliar faces for Virginia Tech that you’ll see in this game, and I’ll end it by touching on some key numbers for Minnesota.
Game picks, as usual, will be at the bottom.
Who Isn’t Playing?
The fact that I have to dedicate over 600 words in a game preview to player opt-outs is proof that bowl games just aren’t what they used to be, but nevertheless I’ll give it my best effort. According to The Minnesota Star Tribune, the following key Gophers are not expected to play in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl:OT Aireontae Ersery: 2,433 career snaps, 79.7 PFF grade. Ersery is Minnesota’s best offensive tackle and best offensive lineman in general. Unfortunately, the Hokies won’t have Antwaun Powell-Ryland to take advantage.
LB Cody Lindenberg: 1,584 career snaps, 74.3 PFF grade. Lindenberg is a major loss for the Minnesota defense.
DE Jah Joyner: 1,252 career snaps, 73.9 PFF grade. Joyner has 14.5 career sacks.
CB Justin Walley: 2,377 career snaps, 68.5 PFF grade. Walley is the second-highest grading Minnesota cornerback in 2024, per PFF.
Those are substantial losses, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Golden Gophers also have a few guys in the transfer portal, but none of them are in the two deep. For all I know, more Minnesota players will be unavailable, but according to the article linked above, it doesn’t sound like Fleck plans to give much away until shortly before kickoff.
Although it won’t be easy for Minnesota with those guys out, Virginia Tech is in much worse shape when it comes to the transfer portal and opt-outs. Here’s a list of Hokies who we don’t believe will be playing in Friday’s game, starting with the defense:
DT Aeneas Peebles: 1,770 career snaps; First Team All-ACC in 2024
DE Antwaun Powell-Ryland: 1,703 career snaps; First Team All-ACC in 2024
CB Dorian Strong: 2,770 career snaps; Honorable Mention All-ACC in 2024
CB Mansoor Delane: 1,826 career snaps; Third Team All-ACC in 2024
S Mose Phillips: 1,001 career snaps
LB Keli Lawson: 981 career snaps
That’s a lot of experience lost on the defensive side of the ball for the Hokies, including two First Team All-ACC players and four guys who could be in the NFL in the next couple of years. Star linebacker Keonta Jenkins (and his 1,854 career snaps) was not at practice two weeks ago when the media was allowed in, and we don’t have any way of knowing whether or not he’ll play. I’m assuming he’ll play, along with defensive tackles Kelvin Gilliam and Wilfried Pene (who just recently returned from France, where he took the Lunch Pail on a little vacation).
That’s five starters that we know of, and a rotational piece in Keli Lawson. Mike linebacker Sam Brumfield recently entered the portal (Dec. 26). I assume he’ll play, but I have no idea.
Not participating on the offensive side of the ball as far as we know are:
LT Xavier Chaplin: 1,447 career snaps; Honorable Mention All-ACC in 2024
C Braelin Moore: 1,422 career snaps
WR Da’Quan Felton: 2,233 career snaps
WR Jaylin Lane: 2,262 career snaps; Third Team All-ACC in 2024 as a specialist
Chaplin and Moore are Tech’s two best offensive linemen, and Felton and Lane are two starters at wide receiver. The latter two are probably replaceable; the former two are probably not.
Of course, that’s not even mentioning the fact that we don’t know what future NFL running back Bhayshul Tuten will do. His social media showed that he returned to Blacksburg a few days ago. Was that to begin preparations for this game or simply to clean out his apartment before he goes to prepare for the NFL Draft? I don’t know. Then there’s Kyron Drones and his 1,320 snaps missing from this one because of injury. That’s a heck of a lot of experience that won’t play in Charlotte.
Virginia Tech’s media availability is scheduled for Monday afternoon, and hopefully we’ll learn more about the Hokies’ roster situation at that point. Or not. Pry is generally pretty coy about injury situations, so he might take the same strategy when it comes to opt-outs. You might not read this preview until after media availability on Monday afternoon. Sorry about that. We had to get the TSL Podcast done in time for Andy to get to Charlotte for media availability, thus I had to get the preview done by Sunday night. Don’t you just love bowl season in the opt-out era?
New Faces For Virginia Tech
With so many key players apparently not participating in this game, prepare yourself for a whole lot of “who the heck is that?” when you’re watching on Friday. Let’s take it position-by-position and get you familiar with some of the young guys that you’ll be seeing.Quarterback: It seems like that Virginia Tech will roll with redshirt freshman Pop Watson (No. 18) as the starting quarterback. He hung in there against a good Duke defense and torched a bad UVa defense. How will he fare against a solid Minnesota unit? The Gophers have a few opt-outs, but so do the Hokies.
Running back: Is Tuten playing? No idea. Apparently Malachi Thomas is playing. Look for redshirt freshman Jeremiah Coney (No. 21) to get more action, and we could possibly see true freshman Tyler Mason (No. 23) as well.
Wide Receiver: With Felton and Lane out, it’s a great time to get some of the young guys action — specifically redshirt freshman slot Takye Heath (No. 2) and true freshmen Keylen Adams (No. 6) and Chanz Wiggins (No. 7). Those latter two were close to getting on the field at the end of the season. Now they’ll have their opportunity.
Offensive Line: With Braelin Moore out, look for redshirt sophomore Johnny Garrett (No. 79 to get the nod at left tackle. He held up well in his first start against ODU, but this will be a whole different animal. True freshman Tommy Ricard (No. 53) will make his first collegiate start at center. True freshman Web Davidson (No. 70) is also in the two-deep at left tackle since Chaplin left. Walk-on Caleb Nitta (No. 60, r-Fr.) is the backup center, and walk-on Tyler Smedley (No. 52, r-Jr.) is the backup at right guard.
Defensive End: With no APR for this one, that will mean increased reps for redshirt freshmen Aycen Stevens (No. 42) and Jason Abbey (No. 31). I’m particularly interested in seeing more of Abbey. It’s possible we could also see some of true freshman Deric Dandy (No. 32).
Defensive Tackle: No Peebles, but the Hokies will probably be mostly intact at defensive tackle. True freshmen Emmett Laws (No. 99) and Gerard Johnson (No. 55) got a lot of work in the two-deep recently with Peebles opting out and Pene back in France for Christmas. I expect we’ll see both players during the course of this game.
Linebacker: I assume Sam Brumfield will play, but I don’t know it for a fact. With Lawson hitting the portal, redshirt freshman walk-on George Ballance (No. 41) was in the two-deep behind Caleb Woodson at will during December practices in Blacksburg. We’ll most likely see Ballance on defense at some point during this game.
Cornerback: Virginia Tech is expected to start true sophomore Dante Lovett (No. 1) and redshirt freshman Thomas Williams (No. 23) at cornerback for this game. Redshirt freshman Krystian Williams (No. 30) and true freshman Joshua Clarke (No. 5) round out the two-deep, and both guys could see action on Friday. This is a very young group, and cornerbacks coach Derek Jones will know a lot more about his room after this game.
Safety: Mose Phillips is in the portal, which pushes true freshman Quentin Reddish (No. 21) into the starting lineup. Redshirt sophomore Devin Alves (No. 11) and true sophomore Braylon Johnson (No. 8) will be in the two-deep behind senior Jaylen Jones. Johnson is redshirting and only played in three games this year, though bowl games don’t count against a player’s redshirt status anymore. If Tech didn’t have Jones for this one, it would be extremely inexperienced in the back end.
Tight end is the only position that we know isn’t impacted by either opt-outs or transfer portal activity. I assume that star linebacker will not be impacted either, because I think Jenkins will play, but if I’m wrong, then that’s another loss for the defense.
In short, this will be sort of like a spring game, except it is played against another team and it counts towards your win-loss record.
The Opposition
As I mentioned earlier, Minnesota is an unbalanced football team. Here is a look at the Gophers’ offensive rankings, which leave a lot to be desired:
Rushing: No. 115
YPC: No. 106
Passing: No. 74
YPA: No. 87
Pass Rating: No. 54
Total: No. 112
Virginia Tech has faced just two offenses who rank worse than Minnesota in total offense: Stanford (No. 120) and Vanderbilt (No. 123).
And now for some advanced metrics:
OF+ (combination of S&P+ and FEI): No. 62
Available Yards: No. 91
The efficiency numbers paint a slightly rosier picture of the Golden Gopher offense, but it still only gained 44.3% of the yards available during the season. Meanwhile, the (admittedly gutted) Virginia Tech defense ranked No. 26 nationally in available yards allowed.
Quarterback Max Brosmer (6-2, 225, r-Sr.) transferred in from New Hampshire, where he was a Second Team All-American at the FCS level. He completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards, with 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He’s been solid in the passing game, but he is a one-dimensional player, finishing 2024 with -34 rushing yards. Much of that was due to sacks. He did gain 130 yards on designed runs this year, but his season-high was just 31 yards against Rutgers, 28 of which came on one play. That was the only play all season where he gained double-digit rushing yards on a designed attempt.
Running back Darius Taylor (6-0, 215, So.) is the main player to watch on the Minnesota offense considering the fact that the Hokies had linebacker issues all season and Tech’s two best defensive linemen are out. He finished the season with 873 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He also forced 39 missed tackles and averaged 3.97 yards after contact. He’s a better player than the numbers indicate. As a freshman in 2023, he finished with 799 yards in just six games, averaging 133.2 yards per game while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
Something seems broken with the Minnesota running game in 2024, but I don’t think it’s Taylor. He had 143 yards in his last game against Wisconsin, and look at these numbers from his 2023 season:
Eastern Michigan: 33 carries, 198 yards
North Carolina: 22 carries, 138 yards
Northwestern: 31 carries, 198 yards
Bowling Green: 35 carries, 208 yards
This is a good, physical running back who can carry the load. He had a preseason hamstring injury that caused him to miss this season’s opener against UNC, a game in which Minnesota lost by two points. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, and it’s possible that he wasn’t healthy for much of the season. However, with a month off, he’ll likely be healthy against the Hokies. By the way, Taylor also caught 50 passes this year, and though he doesn’t get big yards in the passing game, he’s a common checkdown for Brosmer.
Minnesota has a couple of receivers to watch for:
Daniel Jackson (6-0, 195, r-Sr.): 75 catches, 863 yards, 11.5 avg, 4 TDs
Elijah Spencer (6-2, 200, Sr.): 46 catches, 603 yards, 13.1 avg, 4 TDs
The Golden Gophers are not explosive in the passing game, which is probably one of the main reasons their offense has struggled. They’ve completed only five passes of 30-plus yards this year, which ranks No. 133 out of 134 teams. Only Michigan was worse. By comparison, Virginia Tech only ranks No. 96 in that stat, but its 14 passing plays of 30-plus yards is nearly three times as many as Minnesota. That shows you exactly how explosive the Gophers have been. They’ll be facing a Hokie secondary down three starters, so it will be interesting to see who wins that battle.
And now Minnesota’s defensive stats:
Rushing: No. 18
YPC: No. 24
Passing: No. 16
YPA: No. 9
Pass Rating: No. 9
Total: No. 6
Though it is likely down three starters, this is still a very formidable unit, especially against a Virginia Tech offense that will be down at least five starters. The Golden Gophers allow just 290.9 yards per game. That’s a lot better than Miami’s No. 27 defense, which was the highest-ranked defense the Hokies faced this season.
And now for the advanced metrics:
DF+ (combination of S&P+ and FEI): No. 12
Available Yards: No. 23
I’m pretty comfortable saying that this is the best defense on Virginia Tech’s schedule this year.
Freshman safety Koi Perich has been a revelation. He didn’t play much early in the year, but his snaps increased and eventually Minnesota couldn’t keep him out of the starting lineup. (Another safety, Ethan Gousby, looks like he got hurt late in the year.) His 86.4 PFF grade led the team, and he played great against a really good Penn State team in Minnesota’s close 26-25 loss.
Cornerback Ethan Robinson (6-0, 190, Sr.) is a transfer from Bucknell who had a really good year. He struggled in back-to-back games during the middle of the season, with 11 of his 27 allowed receptions coming in those two games, but he’s been good overall. Up front, Anthony Smith (6-6, 285, r-So.) had a very good season. He finished with a team-high 9.5 tackles for loss and a team-high five sacks.
This is a solid Minnesota defense across the board, and it lacks any glaring weakness. Though it’ll be hurt by a few opt-outs, it’ll also be facing a Virginia Tech offense with even more missing players. Given a month to prepare, I do think Tyler Bowen will have some stuff schemed up, but overall, the Hokies will most likely be outmanned in this game.
Virginia Tech-Minnesota Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.
Virginia Tech-Minnesota Final Thoughts
I honestly don’t remember what it was like writing the preview of the Pinstripe Bowl against Maryland, but I can tell you from writing this one that it’s not any fun to “preview” a game when you aren’t 100% sure who is and isn’t going to opt-out. Sure, there are injuries during the regular season, but this is a lot more names.I don’t think this one will get as ugly as that Pinstripe Bowl because Minnesota doesn’t have the offensive firepower of that 2021 Maryland team. However, even with a few opt-outs on the defensive side of the ball, it’s still got a good stop-unit, and it’ll be facing a Virginia Tech offense that is down five or six starters.
On the other side of the ball, I’d normally back the Virginia Tech defense to have a good game against what has been a bad Gopher offense. However, the Hokies look like they’re going to be missing their two best defensive tackles, both starting corners and a starting safety. Basically, Tech is without its best players on that side of the ball and will be relying on a bunch of young, untested players as replacements.
I do think the defense will hold up fairly well for the most part, though honestly, I’m just guessing there, too. At the time of this writing, we don’t even know who will be calling defensive plays for the Hokies. So much unknown… yet I still have to make a prediction.
Prediction: Minnesota 31, Virginia Tech 17
Will Stewart (Founder): We’ve seen this scenario play out in Virginia Tech’s last two bowl games: a depleted team versus an intact team. In Justin Fuente’s last year, a Virginia Tech team that had been riddled by opt-outs and portal entries was stomped by a Maryland team that brought almost everyone, 54-10.
Last year, the surging Hokies, with nearly everyone participating, beat a depleted Tulane team whose biggest opt-out was their starting quarterback. Tech won, 41-20.
This year, things have flipped back in the other direction. Minnesota will bring their entire roster minus a few (primarily defensive) opt-outs, whereas Virginia Tech will play without APR, Aeneas Peebles, three starting defensive backs, its best two offensive linemen, two starting wide receivers, and a record-holding running back. (Editor's note: we don't know with 100% certainty that Tuten has opted out.) The Hokies will also start a redshirt freshman at quarterback.
A look at the roster card reveals a projected starting lineup for Virginia Tech that has just seven (of 22) players classified as seniors or graduates, whereas Minnesota has 12. Minnesota’s starting QB has 348 passing attempts, while VT’s has 46.
There’s a lot lining up against the Hokies in this one. Last year, they were the windshield in the bowl game. This year, they’re the bug.
Will’s Prediction: Minnesota 34, Virginia Tech 14
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): The Hokies have an opportunity to finish the season on a positive note, but this is a Gophers team that’s better than 7-5, in my opinion. I’m interested to see the young players get some run for Virginia Tech and am curious how the staff will involve them in the scheme, but it feels like Minnesota will be too much on both sides of the ball.
I’d like the Hokies in this matchup if they had a complete roster, especially against a Gophers offense that’s struggled, but I look at Tech’s offensive line and don’t get a good feeling. We’ll see. I think Tech is playing with house money a little bit; what’s there to lose? Go out, run some trick plays, get your young players involved and have fun with it. And if you’re disciplined and can keep it close, you’ll have a shot to win at the end.
David’s Prediction: Minnesota 30, Virginia Tech 14
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): This isn’t quite the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl Part II with all opt outs, but it does have that feeling. Almost all of Tech's stars have peaced out for the game, which has to make Hokies fans nervous, but there’s a bit more talent behind the starters this time around.
Though I think Pop Watson should be good and the Hokies still have some weapons, I’m troubled by a few spots, notably the patchwork offensive line that'll be playing with three new starters and a defense that’s depleted of its stars and will be operating without a coordinator.
Minnesota’s nothing flashy on offense, but it’s got a great, stout defense that I think is going to make life tough for Watson in the backfield. That’s a bad recipe for a bowl game, so I’m taking the Gophers to win this one and slightly cover the spread.
Andy’s Prediction: Minnesota 26, Virginia Tech 17
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Bowl Season has always been the season of the unexpected, but this year, with opt-outs, transfers and coaching changes it has been a wacky, wild ride. Virginia Tech lines up against a 7-5 Minnesota team that, as Chris mentioned on the podcast, “won the opt-out battle.” The Hokies will be the short handed squad on Friday, but not nearly as much as some teams so far this winter.
This will be a lively matchup, and even though I am picking a three-score game, I expect the margin to be between seven and 10 points throughout the fourth quarter. I am excited to see the younger players that we have heard all season about get some live game reps against another Power 4 team. It will be like a wrestling dual, in the sense that even if you lose the team matchup, there will still be exciting, fun individual performances.
A win would go a long way in regards to confidence for this coaching staff after a tumultuous season. It would also snap the 10-game losing streak to Power 4 out-of-conference opponents that dates back to 2017. Plus, seeing Brent Pry be doused in mayonnaise would bring a grand smile to my face.
With all of that being said, I do believe that the Golden Gophers will secure a 17-point victory, and the rest of the nation will continue to dance on the ACC’s bowl record grave.
Nick’s Prediction: Minnesota 27, Virginia Tech 10
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |