- Virginia at Virginia Tech: Saturday, Nov. 30, 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: VT -7.0
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
This has been a common theme in recent years, with the Hokies needing to beat UVa in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2021 and 2023 to qualify for the postseason. Tech got it done in all of those matchups, though it certainly had help with some questionable decisions and plays down the stretch by the Cavaliers in some of those contests.
Neither team comes into this year’s game with any momentum. After the first three-game winning streak of the Brent Pry era, Virginia Tech followed it up with a three-game losing streak. After starting the season with a 4-1 record, Tony Elliott’s team has lost five of its last six games, with four of those losses being of the blowout variety. Since the calendar flipped to November, these two teams have combined for a 1-5 record.
If UVa wins this game, it will be considered a successful season for its football program to go 6-6 and qualify for a bowl game. If the Hokies win it, 6-6 will be considered a disappointment considering the preseason expectations. If Tech manages to lose it, it’s not going to sit well with the fan base.
Let’s take a closer look at this 2024 Virginia football team, starting with the offense.
Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett?
Anthony Colandrea (6-0, 183, So.) has been UVa’s starter this year, but he recently began splitting reps with former starter Tony Muskett (6-2, 213, r-Sr.). Colandrea got all the snaps last week against SMU, but that didn’t stop the few UVa students who were in attendance from chanting, “We want Muskett!” towards the end of the game.
Here are Colandrea’s numbers for the season:
- Passing: 198-of-320 (61.9%) for 2,125 yards, 6.6 YPA 13 TDs, 11 INTs
- Rushing: 128 carries, 277 yards, 2.2 ypc, 2 TDs
Don’t let the rushing numbers fool you. He’s a tough and opportunistic runner. His yards per carry would be a lot higher if it weren’t for the insane number of sacks he’s taken this year (39, for 253 lost yards).
Colandrea’s QB rating has dropped from 139.6 a year ago to 124.2 this season, and his yards per attempt is down from 8.0 to 6.6. He hasn’t been as effective through the air this season, though much of that could certainly be due to their offensive line issues.
Colandrea can be a risk taker, while sometimes the passing game seems to go smoother with Muskett behind center, though to be fair, most of his reps have come during garbage time:
- Clemson: 6-of-7 (85.7%) for 119 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
- UNC: 8-of-13 (61.5%) for 125 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
- Notre Dame: 9-of-14 (64.3%) for 103 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
- Others: 3-of-6 (50%) for 20 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
That’s a small sample size for Muskett, but it does appear that some UVa fans would like to see him in the ball game against the Hokies on Saturday. However, it won’t matter who plays at quarterback if the Cavaliers don’t do a better job of protecting the passer.
Sacks, And Sacks, And More Sacks
No Power 4 team in the country does a worse job than the Virginia Cavaliers in preventing sacks. It’s allowed 42 sacks on the season, which comes out to 3.82 per game. Kent State and Hawaii are the only two FBS teams who have yielded more this year at 43 each, while Oklahoma and Southern Miss are right there with UVa at 42.They’ve been bad all year, but two performances stand out more than others. In a 41-14 defeat at the hands of North Carolina on October 26, they allowed 10 sacks. This past weekend, SMU registered nine sacks against the UVa offense in an easy 33-7 victory. For that to happen twice in the span of a month shows where this Virginia offense is right now.
Hoos fault is it (pun intended)? You can never place all of the blame on one unit, but the offensive line shoulders most of the blame. That group has been poor this year and its PFF pass blocking grade of 56.7 ranks dead last in the 17-team ACC and No. 118 out of 134 FBS teams. This group simply can’t protect the quarterback.
Much of the pressure seems to have come from the outside, which would favor Virginia Tech and star defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland. APR is second in the country in sacks with 13, and the Hokies are 19th nationally with 31 as a team. Tech sacked Colandrea six times in last season's game and had numerous other pressures. They completely throttled the UVa offense in a 55-17 victory. This year’s matchup also seems to heavily favor the Hokies, and it would be a surprise if the Cavaliers were able to move it consistently.
UVa Playmakers To Watch
While Virginia may struggle to move it consistently against the Hokies, that doesn’t mean it won’t have an opportunity to hit big plays. It has a tight end and a wide receiver who are very good, and both of the running backs are capable, though injuries are plaguing that position.
WR Malachi Fields (6-4, 220, Sr.): 53 catches, 788 yards, 14.9 avg, 5 TDs. The Charlottesville native has great size. He had 58 catches a year ago, and he’s really come into his own over the last two seasons of his career. He can certainly give the Hokies problems on the outside.
TE Tyler Neville (6-4, 248, r-Sr.): 35 catches, 387 yards, 11.1 avg. 2 TDs. Neville was previously a First Team FCS All-American at Harvard, and he’s originally from Lafayette High School in Williamsburg. He should be a big part of UVa’s game plan this week.
RB Kobe Pace (5-10, 215, r-Sr.): 114 carries, 499 yards, 4.4 ypc, 3 TDs. Don’t underestimate the Clemson transfer. He ran the ball well for the Tigers when he had an offensive line in front of him.
RB Xavier Brown (5-9, 196, Jr.): 80 carries, 488 yards, 6.1 ypc, 1 TD. Brown is arguably the most productive back. He had a 171-yard performance against Coastal Carolina. He also had 15 carries for 68 yards against Pitt, and 11 carries for 52 yards against Notre Dame.
Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, they lost both Pace and Brown to injuries last week against SMU. Brown is done for the season with a collarbone injury while Pace has a knee injury and his status is up in the air. It’s possible that UVa could be without 50% of its top playmakers against the Hokies. Combined with question marks at quarterback and an offensive line that can’t protect, that’s not a formula for scoring many points.
The Virginia Defensive Personnel
The UVa defense has improved since last season. The Cavaliers have held their opponent below its season scoring average for three weeks, but they’ve been let down by poor performances on the offensive side of the ball. Overall, there is more physicality from this group this season, and Eastern Michigan transfer cornerback Kempton Shine (5-11, 191, r-Sr.) is having a very good season.
Shine has been targeted 41 times this year and allowed just 16 completions for 39%. He is perhaps the most underrated cornerback in the ACC this season. Of all ACC cornerbacks with 200-plus snaps, only Miami’s OJ Frederique Jr. has allowed a lower completion percentage. It would probably be wise for the Hokies to look elsewhere in the passing game on Saturday night. Considering the cold temperatures, it’s likely the running game will be more favorable anyway.
Shine might be banged up, however. He played just 38 snaps against SMU, but he played 72-plus snaps in each of the previous four games. And it’s not just Shine. The Cavaliers have been a bit banged up all over the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker Kam Robinson (6-2, 234, So.) has only played 50 snaps total over the last two weeks. When he’s healthy, he’s a very good linebacker, and he was one of the top freshman linebackers in the country last year. He leads the team with four sacks, and nobody else has been consistent there, considering the Cavaliers have just 17 sacks as a team.
Virginia has a ton of experience at the safety positions. Akron transfer Corey Thomas Jr. (6-4, 221, r-Sr.) is a six-year veteran in college football with over 1,766 career snaps. Jonas Sanker (6-1, 210, Sr.) is a Charlottesville native who has generally been regarded as the best player on defense for the Cavaliers. However, Sanker hasn’t been quite as consistent this year, and Virginia Tech absolutely torched him in last season’s matchup. He’s an aggressive player who can often be found close to the line of scrimmage. He leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss this season.
On the defensive line, Kam Butler (6-3, 256, r-Sr.) is a transfer from Miami (OH) and he has been UVa’s most consistent player up front. He’s got 38 pressures on the season, which is the sixth-most in the ACC and a similar number to Powell-Ryland (44). Oddly enough, he’s only been able to convert them into two sacks. Nevertheless, he’s a good player who is certainly capable of making life difficult for whoever is playing quarterback for the Hokies.
Chico Bennett (6-4, 262, r-Sr.) plays UVa’s bandit defensive end position and leads all front-seven players with 7.5 tackles for loss.
The Virginia Defense, Inside The Numbers
Here are some traditional and advanced metrics for the UVa defense against FBS competition so far this season:
- Rushing Defense: No. 51
- Yards per Carry: No. 54
- Passing Defense: No. 125
- Yards per Attempt: No. 100
- Opp. QB Rating: No. 96
- Scoring Defense: No. 89
- Total Defense: No. 102
- Yards per Play: No. 95
- Turnovers Forced: No. 57
- Third Downs: No. 120
- TFLs: No. 102
- Sacks: No. 106
- DF+: No. 69
- Available Yards: No. 76
UVa’s advanced metrics are a bit better than its overall numbers, and it’s been solid against the run this year for the most part. However, the pass defense can be a mess with players often out of position. It also doesn’t force many turnovers and rarely gets penetration into the offensive backfield.
This isn’t the type of defense that should put much stress on the Virginia Tech offense. It’s true that the Hokies are banged up on that side of the ball, but the Cavaliers aren’t 100% either.
Special Teams
UVa has been solid in kick coverage this season. Opponents are averaging just 13.8 yards on kickoff returns, which ranks No. 4 nationally. The Cavaliers are also giving up just five yards per punt return. The Hokies will have to earn whatever return yards they manage against this group. However, UVa hasn’t been dangerous at all in the return game this year. On paper, we shouldn’t see any big returns that could swing this game one way or the other.
Placekicker Will Bettridge has been very accurate this season. He’s 17-of-20 on the year, including 15-of-16 from inside 40 yards. He’s nearly automatic from that range. His longest make of the season is from 47 yards, and UVa has yet to attempt a kick from beyond 50 yards this season.
Virginia Tech-UVA Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.
Virginia Tech-UVa Final Thoughts
I’m picking Virginia Tech to win this game, and it has nothing to do with how these teams have performed against each other over the years. For me, this one is all about the matchups. It’s true that we don’t know which VT quarterback is going to start this week, with Pop Watson getting nearly all of the first team work on Monday and Kyron Drones and Collin Schlee being listed as “questionable” by Brent Pry. With that brace on his knee, I doubt we’ll be seeing Drones anytime soon. My guess is Pop Watson will get the nod, but I really don’t know. When you’ve got a redshirt freshman at quarterback, you really don’t know what will happen.UVa isn’t good at rushing the passer though, so I don’t see him under as much stress as he got from Duke last week. The Blue Devils also defend the pass much better than the Cavaliers, and in general, Virginia just doesn’t stress the opposing quarterback very much. Watson (or Schlee) will have an opportunity to have a nice game this week, and it makes me feel a lot better seeing Bhayshul Tuten be effective last week.
On the other side of the ball, the Cavaliers have quarterback issues, they are one of the worst teams in the country at protecting the quarterback and at least one of their top two running backs will miss this game (and maybe both). Virginia isn’t scoring much recently. It’s broken 20 points just once in the last four games and is averaging just 14.75 points per game in that span. It appears to be getting worse offensively as the year progresses. When you combine that with Virginia Tech’s ability to get after the quarterback, this should present a favorable matchup for a Hokie defense that has been inconsistent all season. There’s no reason for them to have an inconsistent performance this coming Saturday considering all of UVa’s issues.
Chris's Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Virginia 17
Will Stewart (Founder): Much like last week, there’s no way I’m picking UVa to beat Virginia Tech. That decision to pick VT over Duke last week — which I was very vocal about not trusting — cost me a loss and slipped me down a game in the TSL Staff prediction rankings. (See below.) It’s now a two-way battle between David and Chris, though if the Hokies make a bowl, the rest of us could technically close the gap on them by picking differently.
On to this game. One encouraging thing to come out of the Duke game was Bhayshul Tuten’s performance: 19 carries, 84 yards, 1 TD. I haven’t rewatched the game to see how healthy he looked (my seats were terrible end zone seats in the Devils Deck, which is another story), but he did hit pretty good top-end speed on his TD run:
https://www.twitter.com/RAanalytics/status/1861385995356196929
Tuten’s ability to play effectively could be the difference in this game. If I were a betting man, I would bet that Pop Watson is QB1 this weekend, which means anything could happen. Pop could tear it up, turn it over five times or anything in between.
If Pop is the guy at QB, then the Hokies will play it safe and lean on Tuten. Tuten could be the difference between scoring fewer than 20 points in a rock fight or comfortably winning by two scores or more.
UVa has averaged just 15 points in its last four games. I like Virginia Tech’s chances to hold the Cavaliers in that range and for the Hokies to put over 25 points on the board.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 13
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): Though these two rivals are in similar positions at 5-6, the route to get there was completely different. The Hokies have at least been competitive the last few weeks, even in two games against Syracuse and Duke with a backup at quarterback. And, all things considered, I thought Pop Watson managed the game OK in Durham. It could’ve been much worse.
I think Tech will overwhelm UVa on the defensive side of the ball, and the combination of Watson and Bhayshul Tuten should be enough for the Hokies to generate something on the ground. Jeremiah Coney’s looked OK too, and Jaylin Lane and Ayden Greene seem to be effective every time they touch the ball — especially on a reverse, which you can bet Tech will whip out at some point Saturday.
I don’t expect a pretty game considering the injury situation and what the weather could be, but the Hokies are the better team and should win this one. It all starts with their defensive line being able to disrupt things up front.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 16
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): The Hokies are reeling, having lost three straight, but if the Cavaliers aren’t exactly coming in on a heater either, having lost five of six, with their last four coming by an average margin of 22.7 points. Granted, three of those came against ranked teams, but UVa’s lone win since the start of October was against a Pitt team that’s gone in the tank since its quarterback got hurt.
It’s not great that the Hokies probably go into this game with their third-string quarterback as the starter, but truth be told, Watson didn’t look overwhelmed against Duke. He made plays, and if he can tighten up his protection calls after a week of starter’s reps at practice, maybe those drive-killers won’t be so glaring. I have less confidence that UVa, which gave up 10 sacks to UNC and nine to SMU, can solve its protection issues, not a great indicator going into a matchup against this Tech D-line.
I’m done picking Pry to win a one-score game, so I’ll put the margin just beyond that and take the Hokies by nine.
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 21
Nick Brown (Director of Media): The last time I watched Virginia Tech face Virginia at Lane Stadium, I was a junior in high school. Since then, I’ve graduated from high school and college and proposed. Now, the Cavaliers return to a full Lane Stadium, yet this might be the least anticipated game in the series since 2017.
2018: UVa felt it could snap the streak against a 4-6 Tech team.
2019: The winner would represent the Coastal Division in the ACC title game and be a virtual lock for the Orange Bowl.
2020: No fans were present, but UVa sought to start its own streak.
2021: J.C. Price was the interim coach, and the Cavaliers were having a solid season.
2023: The first meeting between Brent Pry and Tony Elliott.
Despite the lack of excitement surrounding Saturday’s game, Sandman will still blast throughout the PA system. When the teams step onto the field, all of those nasty feelings towards the other school will rise up.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Virginia 14
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |