- Virginia Tech at Duke: Saturday, Nov. 23, 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network) from Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C.
- Betting line: VT -3.0
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Durham weather: Click here
This one will be a battle between Penn State’s last two defensive coordinators. Brent Pry was a long-time assistant under James Franklin before the Hokies hired him away in late 2021, and Diaz — who had been let go as Miami’s head coach — was hired to replace him.
Virginia Tech has suffered some critical offensive injuries in recent weeks, with quarterback Kyron Drones and running backs Bhayshul Tuten and Malachi Thomas either missing time or being extremely limited. Both Drones and Tuten played against Clemson but were ineffective. Even after the open week, Drones didn’t practice on Wednesday night, so you can probably draw the conclusion that he either won’t play against the Blue Devils or will be limited if he does.
On the other side of the ball, the Virginia Tech defense has been inconsistent but will face one of its biggest matchups of the season on Saturday night. This one has the look and feel of a one-score game that will be decided by field position and turnovers. In one-score games this season, the Hokies are 0-4. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 4-1.
Let’s start off by taking a look at the Duke offense.
The Duke Offense, By The Numbers
Duke’s offense hasn’t been so hot this year. Here’s how the Blue Devils stack up in games against FBS competition:
- Rushing YPG: No. 120
- Rushing YPC: No. 117
- Passing YPG: No. 59
- Passing YPA: No. 91
- Passer Rating: No. 72
- Total Offense: No. 102
- Yards per Play: No. 108
- Third Downs: No. 130
- OF+: No. 83
- Available Yards: No. 115
That’s just about as bad as it gets. The Blue Devils have only scored 30-plus points twice this year: against Middle Tennessee (45) and against Miami (31), and the Middle Tennessee game was mostly due to short drives off turnovers.
In short, this is one of the best matchups of the season for the Virginia Tech defense. All of the Hokies’ five wins this season have come against either backup quarterbacks or starters who would go on to be benched, but this is a game where the VT defense should feel very good about its chances.
Now let’s talk about Duke’s key offensive personnel.
Quarterback Maalik Murphy
Maalik Murphy (6-5, 230, r-So.) transferred in from Texas. When you watch him play, you can see why the Longhorns wanted him out of high school, though you can also see why they didn’t back up the Brinks truck to keep him. However, he’s been a good passer overall considering the Blue Devils don’t have a great running game to fall back on.His numbers for the season are solid, but not spectacular. Murphy has completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,366 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions. However, he’s averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt, which is below average, and his quarterback rating of 132.5 ranks No. 78 nationally. To put that in perspective, Kyron Drones is No. 86.
I don’t have many questions about Murphy’s natural throwing ability. He’s third in ACC in big time throw rate (5.3%), trailing only Miami’s Cam Ward and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik in that category. He seems like the type who can make just about any throw on the field.
Murphy had a big game against Miami, and you can get a feel for his passing ability from his highlights in that game:
The Duke Wideouts
The Blue Devils will play six wide receivers, though it’s fair to say that Murphy focuses on four main targets:
— Jordan Moore (6-0, 195, r-Sr.): 42 catches, 632 yards, 15.1 avg, 6 TDs. Moore is a very good player who has caught 60-plus passes in each of the last two years. He’ll mostly line up on the outside, though he can sometimes be found in the slot.
— Eli Pancol (6-3, 205, r-Sr.): 46 catches, 533 yards, 11.6 avg, 6 TDs. Pancol has spent his entire career at Duke and is a big target on the outside.
— Sahmir Hagans (5-10, 188, r-Jr.): 36 catches, 361 yards, 10.0 avg, 3 TDs. You’ll find Hagans lined up in the slot about 80% of the time.
— Que’Sean Brown (5-8, 165, r-Fr.): 31 catches, 308 yards, 9.9 avg, 2 TDs. Like Hagans, Brown will be in the slot more times than not.
Duke doesn’t have a dominant star receiver, but it’s been solid as a group. It’s also worth nothing that while Brown has gotten a couple of carries, the Blue Devils don’t appear to use their wideouts in the running game very often.
The Duke Running Backs
The Blue Devils were supposed to rely on veteran Jaquez Moore, but he’s been injured and it appears he will redshirt and return for the 2025 season. With Moore only playing in three games, Duke has had a two-back rotation:— Star Thomas (6-0, 210, r-Sr.): 180 carries, 742 yards, 4.1 ypc, 5 TDs. The New Mexico State transfer is a good back who has forced 40 missed tackles this season, including 10 against North Carolina. He has three 100-yard rushing games this year, including a 30-carry, 166-yard performance against the Tar Heels.
— Peyton Jones (5-10, 192, So.): 71 carries, 298 yards, 4.2 ypc, 3 TDs. Jones played for Maury in Norfolk. He had a 12-carry, 71-yard game against Miami. He also caught three passes for 61 yards in that game.
Both of those players are capable running backs. However, the Blue Devils have struggled mightily with their run blocking this year. While the offensive line has held up well in pass blocking, the same can’t be said for the running game. Some of that could be due to the fact that Duke doesn’t have a quarterback that can stress a defense with his legs, which makes for easier reads for the opposition.
Nevertheless, though the overall running numbers for the Blue Devils have been down this year, we have to recognize that the Virginia Tech rushing defense hasn’t exactly been dominant this season:
- Yards allowed: 158.50 per game, No. 85 nationally
- Yards per carry: 3.98, No. 59 nationally
Duke’s running game doesn’t need to be dominant; it just needs to be able to keep the chains moving, do just enough to keep the passing game open and help the defense win the game.
The Duke Defense, By The Numbers
Duke’s defensive numbers are a lot more impressive than its offensive counterpart. Here they are against FBS competition:
- Rushing YPG: No. 82
- Rushing YPC: No. 60
- Passing YPG: No. 40
- Passing YPA: No. 16
- Passer Rating: No. 19
- Total Defense: No. 54
- Yards per Play: No. 28
- Third Downs: No. 12
- Turnovers Forced: No. 2
- DF+: No. 25
- Available Yards: No. 20
If you just look at total defense, you might not think Duke is that great. However, the Blue Devil defense is put in bad situations due to the offense. It is No. 28 in the country in yards per play allowed, No. 12 on third downs and No. 20 in defensive available yard percentage. This is a very good group, and when you tack on the fact that it is No. 2 nationally in forced turnovers, you quickly figure out that it’s a tough unit to break.
Duke Defensive Personnel
The Blue Devils became a sound unit under former head coach Mike Elko and have continued that trend under Manny Diaz, who spent the last few years as Penn State’s defensive coordinator after being fired as Miami’s head coach. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke has worked for Diaz for a long time, and he also served in that same role at Texas State.
Duke has found terrific value in lower-rated high school recruits and transfer portal players from smaller schools, and it’s been able to develop those guys at the college level. I’ll include the high school recruiting rankings by 247Sports of the guys I want to focus on, just to put everything in perspective.
— CB Chandler Rivers (5-10, 180, Jr.): Three-star, No. 143 player in Texas. Rivers has been starting since he was a true freshman and was a Freshman All-American in 2022. Teams are completing just 47.8% of their passes against him this season. Even Miami and Cam Ward struggled to complete passes against him. He was targeted six times in that game, allowing just one completion for eight yards.
— S Terry Moore (6-1, 200, Jr.): Three-star, No. 28 player in North Carolina. He picked Duke over East Carolina. Moore played as a true freshman at running back, then switched to safety in 2023. He’s having a nice season for the Blue Devils. His tackling can be streaky, but he’s a quality player overall and is good in coverage.
— LB Ozzie Nicholas (6-2, 225, r-Sr.): Transfer from Princeton. Nicholas was an FCS All-American and is playing at a very high level for the Blue Devils this season. He’s been one of the best run stoppers in the ACC in 2024 and leads Duke with 68 tackles.
— LB Alex Howard (6-2, 230, r-Sr.): Transfer from Youngstown State. Howard hasn’t been quite as consistent as Nicholas, but he is Duke’s best playmaker with 11 tackles for loss and five sacks.
— DE Vincent Anthony Jr. (6-6, 250, Jr): Four-star, No. 7 player in North Carolina. One of the few high-profile recruiting wins for Duke. He has 7.5 tackles for loss and four sacks on the season with 31 total pressures. He has great length that can impact the passing lanes.
— DT Aaron Hall (6-4, 290, r-Jr.): Three-star, No. 35 player in North Carolina. Duke may have lost its best defensive tackle to Virginia Tech, but Hall has been an able replacement. He has 7.5 tackles for loss and three sacks in 2024.
— DE Wesley Williams (6-3, 245, r-So.): Three-star, No. 35 player in Virginia. Williams was a teammate of Virginia Tech linebacker Caleb Woodson at Battlefield High School. He leads the Blue Devils with 5.5 sacks this season and also has 9.5 tackles for loss. He was Duke’s Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and has been one of the team’s best players as a redshirt sophomore in 2024.
— CB Joshua Pickett (6-0, 188, Sr.): Three-star, No. 102 player in Georgia. Pickett has played a lot of football, and opponents are completing just 47.2% of their passes against him this season. The Blue Devils have one of the best cornerback combos in the league this year.
— S Jaylen Stinson (5-8, 177, r-Sr.): Three-star, No. 33 player in Alabama. Stinson is short, but he’s played over 2,700 career snaps and is a big reason why the Blue Devil secondary is one of the best in the league this year.
Overall, Duke has 16 players who have played 270-plus snaps this season, so there is solid depth. What’s more, every single one of those players has graded out at a 63.3 or above on PFF. Furthermore, only two of those players have a defensive grade of below 65. This is just an experienced, sound, well-coached, disciplined defense that gets the most out of its ability.
Virginia Tech isn’t likely to run up a bunch of yards or points, even if Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten play. The key for the Hokies is to avoid turnovers against one of the best teams in the country at forcing them. The Blue Devil offense is bad, but it’s capable of taking advantage of the good field position off of those turnovers. It’s imperative that the VT offense doesn’t put Chris Marve’s unit in bad situations.
Special Teams
Duke has blocked three kicks/punts this year, but it’s also had three blocked, so those numbers cancel each other out. In the return game, the Blue Devils have allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown, and this is an area of the game where the Hokies could gain an advantage. Only 14 of Duke’s 53 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, which means Tech will get some opportunities for returns. I thought Thomas Williams showed some promise in the return game against Clemson, so maybe he’ll get the chance to break a big one this week.
Placekicker Todd Pelino is good, but he can be streaky. He’s 13-of-18 on the season and is a perfect 2-of-2 from beyond 50 yards. However, he’s just 2-of-4 from 30-39 and 5-of-8 from 40-49. One of his field goals has been blocked.
Duke has been good at covering punts this year — opponents are averaging only 5.5 yards per return, with a long of 20. Still, the unit isn’t impenetrable, and in what is projected to be a close game, it would be very helpful if Jaylin Lane could break off a nice return in this one.
Virginia Tech-Duke Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.
Virginia Tech-Duke Final Thoughts
I haven’t had to think too hard about how I was going to pick each game this year. I went back and forth on Syracuse a bit because I didn’t know which Virginia Tech players were going to play, but other than that, I haven’t had any difficulty making game predictions. I’ve had a little more trouble this week. In fact, as I’m writing this particular sentence, I still haven’t made up my mind about who I’m going to pick. It’s a whole bunch of “yeah, buts.”Duke has a very good offense. Yeah, but the offense stinks. Virginia Tech has more overall talent. Yeah, but the Blue Devils have gotten more out of their talent, and we don’t even know the status of Drones and Tuten. The game is on the road. Yeah, but it will probably be half-filled with Hokie fans. Duke almost lost to Florida State. Yeah, but it was one play away from beating SMU. Tech has played a tougher schedule. Yeah, but the Hokies have also lost to three lower-ranked teams in the ESPN power rankings (Vanderbilt, Rutgers and Syracuse), so what does that really matter?
You can “yeah, but” this one all day long on both sides. The one thing I’m confident in saying is that whoever wins is going to have to scrap and claw for it. It’s hard to see this one being a clean game. It’s difficult to see the VT offense moving it consistently against the Duke defense, and it’s hard to see the Blue Devil offense putting up many points when it’s only scored 30-plus twice this season. This one has the feel of being a close one that will be decided by field position, turnovers and little things like that.
The Hokies are 0-4 in one-score games this season while the Blue Devils are 4-1. By my count, Manny Diaz is 14-10 in one-score games in his career. That’s a heck of a lot of one-score games for a guy who is only in the middle of this fourth season as a head coach, so he’s got a lot of experience in games like this one projects to be.
This Duke team reminds me of the 2008 Virginia Tech Hokies. VT had a poor offense that season, but the defense forced a whopping 34 turnovers (20 INTs, 14 fumbles recovered). Those takeaways helped the Hokies squeeze out a lot of tough wins. Meanwhile, their offense only scored 30-plus points twice all season. This year, Duke has forced 23 turnovers and has scored 30-plus points twice all season. The situations are very similar.
If I knew that Tuten and Drones were healthy and at or near 100%, I’d most likely be picking Virginia Tech. In fact, I’ve said all year that I was picking the Hokies in this game simply because the Duke offense is so bad. But with Tuten and Drones banged up, with Drones not practicing on Wednesday and knowing that the Blue Devils sort of specialize in winning rock fights, I'm now leaning in the other direction. Only one team has scored more than 28 against Duke this year, so this one is probably going to be close, and you know what happens to the Hokies in close games. I’ll keep picking against them in games that seem like they’ll be close until they prove they can win some.
Chris's Prediction: Duke 24, Virginia Tech 17
Will Stewart (Founder): Ooof. I just can’t bring myself to pick Duke to win this game. I don’t think I’ve ever picked Duke to beat Virginia Tech… but wait, I have. Three times.
In 2014, I said No. 19 Duke would win 24-20, but VT prevailed 17-16 in Durham. In 2018, a week after VT got smashed by ODU, I picked 22nd-ranked Duke to beat No. 24 VT by the score of 37-27. The Hokies won again, 31-14 in Durham.
In the special hell of the 2022 season, I picked Duke to win 31-17, and this time, the Blue Devils did win, 24-7, in Durham.
So there is a precedent for me picking Duke to win. But I still can’t do it this year, mainly because I promised in Monday Thoughts a couple of weeks ago that I would pick VT to beat both Duke and UVA.
So I’m picking it that way, but I don’t like this one. I don’t like it at all. And I have to pick VT to win by two scores, because we all know what happens in one-score games. Ugh.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Duke 14
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): My gut feeling is that this one doesn’t bode well for the Hokies, especially if Drones and Tuten (and potentially others) can’t go. They’re playing a stout defense and could be down their top two offensive players, and even when those guys played in the last game against Clemson, they were mostly ineffective.
If Virginia Tech was scoring on defense or special teams, I’d feel differently about this one, but I can’t pick against a Duke team that’s thrived in close games when the Hokies have struggled in those situations. It’s going to take something off the cuff for Tech to win this one, in my opinion, and this group hasn’t shown any ability to make those kinds of plays on a consistent basis.
David’s Prediction: Duke 21, Virginia Tech 14
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): I don't think Drones plays in this game, though I don't know that that's the blow everyone thinks. He's not been 100 percent, with two bum wheels for a while now. So how effective could he really be if he's that hobbled? Plus, we've seen what Schlee can do given a week (and more) of practice reps preparing to be the starter. Tuten is still not a guarantee, though I like his chances coming off an open week more than I did against Clemson last time out. If he can go, that's a big boost to this offense, particularly against a strong Duke defense.
Historically, the Hokies have played pretty well in Durham, too. And with a mostly healthy defense, I think they've got a chance against a Blue Devils offense that's got issues of its own. Give me Tech to win a weird, low-scoring game of the one-score variety. (Hey, it's bound to happen sometime!)
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 22, Duke 19
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Over the past three seasons Duke football has established itself as a respected and solid program. We all praised David Cutcliffe for the job he did at Duke and for the success that he enjoyed with the Blue Devils, but it turns out that any good football coach can win there.
I am picking this game on the basis that Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten will not be playing this Saturday. With the good chance that Malachi Thomas is out as well that means it will be the Collin Schlee/Jeremiah Coney show. All I ask is that the Hokies at least ATTEMPT to establish a running game—unlike Clemson.
Duke’s offense is absolutely anemic, and I still think that the Tech defense isn’t receiving the praise it deserves for holding Clemson to 24 points despite being on the field for what felt like 90% of the game. The Hokies defense is the healthy side of the ball and is still loaded with NFL talent. This will not be a high scoring affair.
I’m picking a one-score game, but I think, somehow, by the skin of their teeth, this team and coaching staff pick up a gritty road win.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 17, Duke 13
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |