- Clemson vs. Virginia Tech: Saturday, Nov. 9, at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Clemson -6.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
Both sides badly want a win this week. Tech wants it to make up for one of its tough losses and to get Brent Pry his first truly “big” win in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, the Tigers absolutely need it to stay alive in the ACC race.
Despite Clemson’s loss last week, it’s a balanced team between offense and defense. It also possesses the most powerful running back the Hokies will face this season. On the other hand, the Tigers have laid waste to overmatched teams while falling to Georgia (No. 3 in the F+ ratings) and Louisville (No. 22). Tech (No. 28) is much closer to Louisville than the programs Clemson steamrolled, such as Virginia (No. 70), Wake Forest (No. 76), Appalachian State (No. 99) and Stanford (No. 100).
If the Hokies play a good game, this could be a close one. Could Virginia Tech finally break through in a close game? Or would it have to blow the Tigers out to win? The latter seems unlikely.
Clemson is a 6.5-point favorite at the time of this writing on Tuesday, which seems fair. Let’s take a closer look at the Tigers.
The Clemson Running Game
Clemson running back Phil Mafah (6-1, 230, r-Sr.) is having an excellent season. He’s probably licking his chops after watching the Virginia Tech run defense in action against Syracuse last week. Mafah was solid the last couple of years while splitting time, but he looks even better this season while serving as the primary running back for the Tigers.
- 2022: 98 carries, 515 yards, 5.3 ypc, 4 TDs; 9 catches, 48 yards
- 2023: 179 carries, 965 yards, 5.4 ypc, 13 TDs; 21 catches, 108 yards
- 2024: 135 carries, 853 yards, 6.3 ypc, 8 TDs; 13 catches, 70 yards
Mafah is averaging 106.6 yards per game on the ground and has five 100-yard games this season:
- Appalachian State: 10 carries, 108 yards, 1 TD
- NC State: 7 carries, 107 yards, 1 TD
- Florida State: 25 carries, 154 yards
- Wake Forest: 19 carries, 108 yards, 2 TDs
- Louisville: 30 carries, 171 yards, 2 TDs
Clemson was ransacking opponents so badly earlier this year that Mafah only got a combined 17 carries against Appalachian State and NC State. He’d already be over 1,000 yards otherwise. Perhaps the best game of his career came last season against Notre Dame when he had 36 carries for 186 yards against a big, tough defense.
With his size, Mafah is a workhorse that is a challenge for even the best of defenses. Here’s a video with his season highlights. As you can see, his size and strength stand out, and he’s also got good speed for a back of his size. This guy is basically Jaden Keller at running back.
Clemson’s backup running backs don’t seem to get many carries, though quarterback Cade Klubnik (6-2, 210, Jr.) is the second-leading rusher and has been effective this season with 270 rushing yards while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. His top performances on the ground include a four-carry, 70-yard effort against NC State and an 11-carry, 62-yard performance against Florida State.
Clemson ranks No. 22 nationally in rushing yards per game (202.6) and No. 11 in yards per carry (5.71). This is probably the toughest rushing attack the Tech defense will face this season. In case you are curious, the Tigers put up those numbers against the following rushing defenses:
- Georgia: No. 21
- App. State: No. 120
- NCSU: No. 73
- Stanford: No. 66
- FSU: No. 115
- Wake: No. 72
- UVa: No. 52
- Louisville: No. 67
That’s not exactly murderers’ row, but neither is the Hokie run defense, which ranks No. 83 nationally. For further detail, here’s how the Tigers ran it in each game:
- Georgia: 23 carries, 46 yards, 2.0 ypc
- App. State: 34 carries, 252 yards, 7.4 ypc
- NCSU: 33 carries, 269 yards, 8.2 ypc
- Stanford: 30 carries, 150 yards, 5.0 ypc
- FSU: 40 carries, 265 yards, 6.6 ypc
- Wake: 41 carries, 223 yards, 5.4 ypc
- UVa: 38 carries, 194 yards, 5.1 ypc
- L'Ville: 45 carries, 222 yards, 4.9 ypc
Outside of the Bulldogs, nobody has been able to stop this Clemson rushing attack all season. Chris Marve’s unit will need to come up with its best performance of the season to slow down Mafah and the Tiger running game.
The Clemson Passing Game
Klubnik’s had a very efficient season for the Tigers, putting up 2,064 yards on 275 attempts (7.5 ypa) with 21 touchdowns and three interceptions. Overall, between Klubnik in the passing game and Mafah in the running game, this is the most balanced offense the Hokies will face in 2024.However, Klubnik hasn’t been as effective against the better passing defenses that he has faced:
- Georgia: 29 attempts, 142 yards, 4.9 ypa
- FSU: 33 attempts, 235 yards, 7.1 ypa
- Louisville: 56 attempts, 228 yards, 4.07 ypa
He absolutely lit up a number of bad pass defenses such as Wake Forest (No. 129), Virginia (No. 126) and Stanford (No. 121), but when Clemson played somebody with a pulse on pass defense, the numbers have gone down quite a bit.
Virginia Tech ranks No. 46 nationally against the pass and should give the Tigers’ a fairly stern test. It’s fair to point out that the Hokies have benefited from playing a large number of backup or soon-to-be-benched quarterbacks (Marshall, ODU, Stanford and Georgia Tech), but it’s still accurate to say that Tech’s pass defense is a lot better than that of the Demon Deacons, Cavaliers and Cardinal.
Clemson doesn’t quite have the talent on the outside that it once did. One of its top two receivers is a tight end:
- WR Antonio Williams (5-11, 190, r-Sr.): 35 catches, 420 yards, 12 ypc, 6 TDs
- TE Jake Briningstool (6-6, 240, Sr.): 32 catches, 349 yards, 10.9 ypc, 4 TDs
True freshman T.J. Moore (6-3, 200) is the Tigers’ best outside receiver and has 21 receptions and averages nearly 16 yards per catch. Fellow true freshman Brant Wesco Jr. (6-2, 200) has 18 receptions on the season. These guys are good prospects, but it’s also one of the big problems for the Tigers in the passing game — two of their top outside receivers have very little experience. Troy Stellato (6-1, 190, r-Jr.) has 21 catches but seems to lack big play ability.
I believe Virginia Tech matches up well with Clemson on the outside with Mansoor Delane, Dorian Strong and Dante Lovett at corner. However, the inside concerns me, particularly with Briningstool, as the Hokies have had trouble with tight ends this year. He plays nearly all of his snaps in either the slot (200) or inline tight end (189), with just 23 snaps as an outside receiver.
The Clemson Offensive Line
The Tigers will likely play six offensive linemen against the Hokies, and they collectively have a lot of on-field experience. They help this Clemson offense go.
- OT Blake Miller (6-6, 315, Jr.): 2,490 career snaps, third year as a starter
- OT Tristan Leigh (6-6, 315, r-Jr.): 1,361 carer snaps, second year as a starter
- OG Walker Parks (6-5, 305, r-Sr.): 2,478 career snaps, third year as a starter
- OG Marcus Tate (6-5, 315, Sr.): 2,295 career snaps, fourth year as a starter
- OG Harris Sewell (6-4, 310, So.): 695 career snaps, very experienced backup
- C Ryan Linthicum (6-3, 305, r-Jr.): 650 career snaps, first year as a starter
Virginia Tech recruited Linthicum and Leigh heavily out of high school.
Overall, this is a good line that’s helped the Tigers establish a running game that has put up big numbers against every opponent not named Georgia.
The Clemson Defense
Here are the major rankings for the Clemson defense this season:- Rushing: No. 59
- YPC allowed: No. 95
- Passing: No. 54
- YPA: No. 26
- Opp. QB Rating: No. 36
- Total Defense: No. 51
- Yards per Play: No. 64
That said, the more advanced stats like Clemson. The Tigers are No. 30 in F+ defense while they are No. 20 nationally in available yards allowed (37.8%). Meanwhile, they are matched up against a Hokie offense that is just No. 78 in available yards gained (46%).
Clemson linebacker Barrett Carter (6-1, 230, Sr.) is a player to watch. He has 41 tackles this season and is tied for the team lead with seven tackles for loss to go with three sacks. Carter has been projected as high as a second-round pick recently and is having a good season for the Tigers. He was a preseason First Team All-ACC pick. In fact, Carter is currently the highest projected Tiger to be taken in this year’s draft, and as a possible second-rounder, that shows that their talent level has dropped a bit. Where are the first round guys? Surely there are some in the future, but not now.
(Note: The same mock draft that I used for Carter also projects Strong and Delane as second-round picks, so it’s possible that the Hokies have more high-end draft talent for 2025 than the Tigers.)
Speaking of the future, cornerback Avieon Terrell (5-11, 180, So.) looks like he has one. He was only ranked as a three-star recruit and the No. 55 prospect in Georgia by 247Sports, but he’s having a dominant season in the Clemson secondary. He is the Tigers’ highest-rated defender and has been great in coverage. The opposition has targeted him a whopping 39 times, but he’s allowed just 17 completions (43.6%). Fellow cornerback Jaedyn Lukus (6-2, 200, Jr.) has been solid on the other side as well, which gives the Tigers a very nice duo on the outside.
Linebacker Wade Woodaz (6-3, 235, Jr.) is a first-time starter after serving as a rotational piece last season and has been good. He’s played his best football over the Tigers’ last four games. He leads the team in tackles with 64, including 6.5 tackles for loss and two sacks.
Clemson doesn’t get a ton of sacks. It averages 2.13 per game, which ranks No. 56 nationally. Defensive end T.J. Parker (6-3, 265, So.) leads the way with five, and he’s another true sophomore like Terrell who appears to have a big future. Unlike Terrell, he was a top-50 recruit coming out of high school.
Safety R.J. Mickens (6-0, 210, r-Sr.) is a very experienced and very consistent player. He’s played over 1,800 snaps in his career and will be one of the leaders of the Tiger defense against the Hokies on Saturday. Like Carter, he was a preseason First Team All-ACC selection.
What kind of offenses has Clemson faced? Here are the F+ offensive rankings for all eight of its opponents:
- Georgia: No. 9
- App. State: No. 71
- NCSU: No. 55
- Stanford: No. 101
- FSU: No. 108
- Wake: No. 60
- UVa: No. 82
- Louisville: No. 15
The unit hasn’t been challenged very much. If healthy and with a good gameplan, I think the Virginia Tech offense (F+ offense No. 41) is capable of testing the Tigers more than the vast majority of their competition this year.
Clemson Special Teams
True freshman placekicker Nolan Hauser is 12-of-16 this season with a long of 38 yards. The Tigers have attempted just one field goal beyond 40 yards this year, which was a miss, so his effective range is unknown.
Aidan Swanson is a veteran punter who is in his third season as a starter. Opponents are averaging just 5.8 yards per return against him, so the Tigers haven’t given up much in coverage. Their kickoff return team also seems good, with an opponent 18.8 yard return average and a long of 25 yards.
Jay Haynes has been the primary kickoff return man, but he’s averaging just 18.5 yards per return. Antonio Williams is averaging 10.2 yards per punt return, though nearly a quarter of his yardage (25 out of 112) came on one play.
Overall, the Tigers don’t seem to be as explosive on special teams as they once were.
Virginia Tech-Clemson Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.
Virginia Tech-Clemson Final Thoughts
Clemson doesn’t have the high-end talent like it used to. It had no offensive players on the First Team All-ACC list, and it’s possible that Carter is its highest-drafted player this year as a second rounder. Going back to DeAndre Hopkins in 2013, the Tigers have had 21 first-round picks, by my count. That includes five in 2019, four in 2017 and a total of 15 players drafted overall in 2017.This team doesn’t have that kind of top-end talent, nor does it possess quite as much overall depth. It’s still a very good team, but Clemson’s most talented days are behind it. You can argue all day long as to why that is, but that’s not what we’re here to do.
I think Virginia Tech has a chance to win this game, though I’m banking on a healthy return for Bhayshul Tuten. That said, the matchup with Clemson’s running game is very concerning to me. Phil Mafah is 230 pounds of toughness, and after watching 194-pound Le’Quint Allen gash the Hokies last week, Mafah has me extremely concerned. Tech needs to make contact with him and gang tackle him before he starts getting downhill.
The Tigers have absolutely thrashed teams without a pulse while being routed by the two good teams they’ve faced. (The Louisville game wasn't as close as the 33-21 final score). The Hokies certainly have a pulse, and had they simply gone 2-2 in their four one-score games this year, I believe a lot of people would have Tech winning this game.
The way I’m picking games these days is pretty simple. I’ll believe VT will win a one-score game when I see it, so if I think the Hokies are going to win, I pick them by double digits. Otherwise, I pick them to lose. So the main question I’m asking myself here is can I see them beating the Tigers by double digits? And can Virginia Tech beat a good team that isn’t starting a backup quarterback? It’s that second question that gives me the most pause.
I definitely can see a path to victory for VT when I study both teams, but in the end, the Hokies are 5-4 for a reason, and I have a vision that I can’t get out of my head of Mafah pounding the VT defense into dust.
Chris's Prediction: Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 17
Will Stewart (Founder and GM): Go back and look at that list of offenses that Clemson has faced and you’ll see six (out of eight) offenses that have F+ ratings worse than Virginia Tech’s 41. The best offenses to face Clemson so far are Georgia (No. 9, 447 yards, 34 points) and Louisville (No. 15, 366 yards, 33 points).
If Virginia Tech is full strength on offense, I like the matchup of the Hokies’ running game against Clemson’s rushing D, which allows 4.6 yards per carry, good for No. 95 in the nation. But I’m very doubtful that VT will be anywhere near full strength, at least at the running back position. (If Drones can’t go at all, I like Schlee running the offense.)
Defensively, as Chris has pointed out, Virginia Tech’s run defense has a tall task ahead of it. At No. 83 nationally (conventional yards/game), the Hokies are closest to NC State (No. 73), against whom Clemson had 269 yards and 8.2 yards per carry.
One statistic to highlight is that Virginia Tech is No. 74 in the nation in converting third downs on offense and No. 84 on stopping the opponent on third down — not good — while Clemson is No. 24 on offense and No. 22 on defense. That is a very concerning set of stats that say the Tigers will be able to keep moving the chains on offense and get off the field on defense.
We could sit here and crunch stats all day, but the bottom line is that I’d feel better if Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten were 100% healthy, but they’re not. This one is shaping up to be a big win by Clemson at worst and a close game at best, and like most people, I have little confidence in Virginia Tech to win a close game.
We as a staff wind up picking a lot of games as mid-30-something to low-mid-20-something, and that’s where I land on this one.
Will’s Prediction: Clemson 34, Virginia Tech 24
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): I don’t feel great about this one. This isn’t one of Dabo Swinney’s old teams that had the best talent in the country, but this is a pretty solid group that I expect to take advantage of the Hokies being banged up in a few spots. I’d likely pick this as close to a one-score game if I knew Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten were fully healthy — which is similar to the 6.5-point spread — but with that up in the air, I expect this to be somewhat of a runaway victory for the Tigers.
Klubnik and Mafah are going to be a problem on the ground for a Tech defense that has been slowly broken down over the course of the season. I expect similar from a Clemson team that knows its identity and is more talented. The Hokies will head into their final two games needing one win for bowl eligibility.
David’s Prediction: Clemson 38, Virginia Tech 20
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): There are plenty of unknowns about this matchup from the Hokies' side, notably whether Drones or Tuten (or Delane, for that matter) play. Given that the coaching staff played coy with them last week and they couldn't go (and in Drones' case doesn't sound like he was particularly close), I'll go into this with the assumption that they won't be able to go -- or if they do, they won't be near 100 percent. That's not a great way to go into the biggest home game of the season.
Clemson isn't all-caps CLEMSON this year, looking very good against bad teams and very bad against good teams. The question is, where can you honestly put the Hokies right now? It doesn't feel like the latter, not with Tech's trouble with finishing teams and its injury questions at important positions. Though the Tigers' defense doesn't feel like it's been what it was, the offense was rolling up until last week. This feels like a game where Tech will need to score to keep up. It did a pretty good job of that last week at Syracuse, but how many times are your backups going to play that well if called upon? For that reason, I don't like the Hokies' chances.
Andy’s Prediction: Clemson 34, Virginia Tech 23
Nick Brown (Director of Media): It’s hilarious to me that just a week ago, this game was getting heavy backing to be the next stop for College GameDay. Alas, Virginia Tech blew a 21-3 lead, and Clemson got its pants pulled down at home by Jeff Brohm and Louisville.
Will I pick Virginia Tech to win? No, but I do think people are irrationally scared of this Clemson team simply because of the school's name. This is not the same Clemson team from six to 10 years ago that was always in the national championship conversation. This team has beaten only one opponent with a winning record—NC State, which is 5-4. If this were No. 23 Boston College, Georgia Tech, or North Carolina, most Tech fans would say they have a great chance of winning. But because it’s Clemson, everyone’s timbers are shivering.
That said, it would be an impressive job by the coaching staff if they can pull off a win without Kyron Drones, Bhayshul Tuten, and/or Mansoor Delane. I have faith in offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen to find some creative wrinkles to put up 20-plus points, but the Hokies’ defense could be lacerated by Cade Klubnik.
Finally, I’ve seen fans on Twitter/X saying they would be upset if the Hokies win because it would highlight that, if they had beaten Syracuse, they would still be in ACC Championship contention. The Hokies lost that shot when the refs overturned that stupid Hail Mary in Miami Gardens. Enjoy every win, especially one against a team Tech hasn’t beaten since 2007.
Nick’s Prediction: Clemson 35, Virginia Tech 24
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |