- Virginia Tech at Syracuse: Saturday, Nov. 2, at noon ET (The CW) from the JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse, N.Y.
- Betting line: VT -4
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Syracuse weather: Click here
First things first, however. Though the Orange lost in ugly style last week to Pitt (41-13), it is 5-2 under first-year head coach Fran Brown and is just one win away from bowl eligibility. It’s been one of the most prolific passing teams in the country this season under Ohio State transfer QB Kyle McCord, and let’s face it — the Hokies don’t fare well historically in trips to the Carrier Dome JMA Wireless Dome.
The Orange is 3-1 in close games and 2-1 in blowouts, whereas the Hokies have done much better in blowouts under Brent Pry. The Orange has very close wins over Georgia Tech (31-28), UNLV (44-41) and NC State (24-17), while somehow managing to lose a close one at home to a struggling Stanford team (26-24).
We all know the secret to success for the Orange: throwing the football and scoring points. Let’s take a look at some of the matchups in this game, and we’ll spend the most time talking about the Syracuse passing attack.
Kyle McCord And The Syracuse Passing Game
Kyle McCord was the starter at Ohio State in 2023 before hitting the transfer portal and landing at Syracuse. Here are his stats for the last two seasons ..:
- 2023 (Ohio State): 229-of-348 (65.8%) for 3,170 yards, 9.1 YPA, 24 TDs, 6 INTs
- 2024 (Syracuse): 220-of-346 (63.6%) for 2,481 yards, 7.2 YPA, 19 TDs, 11 INTs
Those stats are very similar, with three exceptions:
1: With five games remaining, Syracuse is throwing it a lot more in 2024 than the Buckeyes did last year.
2: McCord’s yards-per-attempt average has dropped by nearly two yards per attempt.
3: His TD-INT ratio has dropped as well, mostly due to his latest outing in Pittsburgh (five interceptions).
McCord gets to throw it more at Syracuse, but he also doesn’t have the help of the Ohio State running game anymore, nor is he throwing it to Marvin Harrison Jr.
One other note on McCord: He’s not a runner, with a total of -121 rushing yards in his career. He only has two games with positive rushing yardage this season. It’s the passing that you have to worry about. Here are his game-by-game numbers:
- Ohio: 27-of-39 (69.2%) for 354 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT
- GT: 32-of-46 (69.6%) for 381 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
- Stanford: 27-of-42 (64.3%) for 339 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
- Holy Cross: 28-of-50 (56%) for 385 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs
- UNLV: 40-of-63 (63.5%) for 355 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
- NCSU: 31-of-42 (73.8%) for 346 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
- Pitt: 35-of-64 (54.7%) for 321 yards, 0 TDs, 5 INTs
His interception rate was pretty good up until last week’s game against Pitt when things completely unraveled for him. The Holy Cross game shows exactly how dedicated Syracuse is to throwing the football — 50 passing attempts against an overmatched FCS team is a lot.
Though Syracuse does throw it a lot, it isn’t as “big play” as you might think. It averages 7.2 yards per attempt, which ranks No. 78 nationally. That’s not too far ahead of the Hokies, who are at 7.0 yards per attempt (No. 89 nationally). The Orange does rank No. 11 nationally in passing gains of 20-plus yards and No. 42 in gains of 30-plus yards but has only completed three passes of 40-plus yards this season.
To put that in a little more perspective, only 13% of McCord’s passes travel 20-plus yards downfield in the air. Only three ACC quarterbacks have a lower percentage: Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones, Cal’s Fernando Mendoza and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King. This isn’t an offense that goes down the field for a high percentage of its passing plays, but because it throws it so much, it’ll still get to a high number of downfield attempts. Perhaps the Orange should do it more because McCord has proven to be very accurate on the deep ball this season:
- Attempts 20-plus yards downfield: 45, tied for No. 2 in the ACC (min. 20 attempts)
- Completions 20-plus yards downfield: 23, tied for No. 1 in the ACC
- Completion % on passes 20-plus yards downfield: 51.1%, No. 1 in the ACC
Only one other ACC quarterback completes 50% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield: Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, who is at exactly 50%. Eight of the 15 ACC quarterbacks with 20 or more downfield attempts are below 40% for the season, and that includes Drones, who is No. 13 out of 15 for a rate of 3.8%. In short, you can make a strong argument that McCord is the best downfield passer in the league.
Other impressive McCord stats include:
- Big time throws: 22, No. 1 in the ACC
- Big time throw %: 6.1%, No. 3 in the ACC
Average time to throw is also an interesting stat. McCord is at 2.48 seconds, third from the bottom in the ACC, while Drones is at 3.01 seconds, which is No. 4 in the conference. Tech has allowed 17 sacks to Syracuse’s 16. Overall, those numbers probably show that McCord does a good job of getting the ball away pretty quickly to his first or second read. That’s mostly been a good thing for Syracuse, though McCord does struggle to come off his first read at times, so if defenses cover up that first read well, it can lead to interceptions (see the Pitt game as an example).
Four receivers stand out in the Syracuse passing game:
WR Jackson Meeks (6-2, 210, Sr.): The transfer from Georgia has 43 catches for 512 yards (11.9 ypc) with four touchdowns.
WR Trebor Pena (6-0, 184, r-Jr.): 47 catches, 509 yards (10.8 ypc) with 5 touchdowns.
TE Oronde Gadsen II (6-5, 236, r-Jr.): 35 catches, 466 yards (13.3 ypc) with 3 TDs.
RB LeQuint Allen (6-0, 201, Jr.): 37 catches, 274 yards (7.4 ypc) with 4 TDs.
Of those, Gadsen is the guy to watch out for. The Hokies have struggled with covering the tight end at times this year, and he was a First Team All-ACC player in 2022 with 61 receptions before an injury knocked him out for the 2023 season. He’ll line up as a traditional tight end for under 50% of his snaps, however.
- Inline: 156 snaps
- Slot: 199 snaps
- Wide: 25 snaps
- Backfield: 2 snaps
The Hokies will have to account for him in a number of different roles, but I would expect the Orange to primarily focus on getting him matched up against the Hokies’ safeties and linebackers. That’s where Virginia Tech has struggled the most this season.
If Tech lets this one turn into a passing game vs. passing game contest, then it is destined to lose. It’s very important that the Hokies play to their strengths and run the football, which will help keep McCord off the field.
The Syracuse Running Game
We’ve already established that Kyle McCord isn’t a runner. LeQuint Allen is the top tailback, though he hasn’t been quite as productive this season. That’s understandable considering the focus the Orange has put on throwing the ball.- Allen in 2023: 245 carries, 1,064 yards, 4.3 ypc, 9 TDs
- Allen in 2024: 109 carries, 481 yards, 4.4 ypc, 4 TDs
The Syracuse offensive line has struggled in both games I’ve watched, though it’s only fair to note that the only two games I’ve seen were losses to Stanford and Pitt. Allen’s numbers have been much better in the other five games:
- Ohio: 15 carries, 98 yards, 6.5 ypc
- GT: 15 carries, 83 yards, 5.5 ypc
- Stanford: 8 carries, 25 yards, 3.1 ypc
- Holy Cross: 16 carries, 81 yards, 5.1 ypc, 1 TD
- UNLV: 19 carries, 71 yards, 3.7 ypc, 2 TDs
- NCSU: 21 carries, 91 yards, 4.3 ypc, 1 TD
- Pitt: 15 carries, 32 yards, 2.1 ypc
Virginia Tech did a great job of shutting down the Georgia Tech running game last week. However, that was a case of the Hokies knowing that the Yellow Jackets were going to run the ball a ton. Pass defense is the primary focus this time around. The Orange will get its yards through the air, but it’s important for Tech to limit those plays when they happen. If Syracuse is balanced, it will be difficult to stop.
The Syracuse Defense
Here’s how the Syracuse defense looks in the traditional stats against FBS competition:
- Rushing D: No. 50
- Yards per carry: No. 110
- Passing D: No. 57
- Yards per attempt: No. 67
- Opp. QB rating: No. 94
- Total D: No. 53
- Yards per play: No. 104
Those Syracuse yardage numbers don’t look too bad, but they are skewed. The Orange ranks No. 1 in the country in time of possession (No. 3 against FBS opponents), so the defense isn’t on the field that much. However, when it is on the field, it has had a tendency to give up huge chunks of yardage, especially on the ground, and opposing quarterbacks have been very efficient.
Here are the efficiency numbers for the Syracuse defense:
- F+: No. 77
- Available yards: No. 96
Opposing offenses are gaining 52.4% of available yards against the Orange. As a comparison, they are gaining 39.3% of available yards against Virginia Tech. In short, it has not been difficult for opposing teams to move the ball against Syracuse this season. That said, it had not been tough for offenses to move the ball against Georgia Tech this year until the Yellow Jacket defense ran into the Hokie offense, so we’ll see.
Poor tackling has been the main culprit for the Orange this season, but again, it was the same thing for Georgia Tech before it faced Virginia Tech.
One thing that should help the Syracuse defense is the return of veteran linebacker Marlowe Wax (6-1, 236, Sr.). Besides being on the All-Name ACC Team, he’s a veteran linebacker with over 2,600 career snaps under his belt with the Orange. He hadn’t played since the season opener against Ohio until he reappeared in the starting lineup against Pitt last week. He was a Second Team All-ACC player last year and has put up the following career numbers:
- Tackles: 302
- TFL: 40
- Sacks: 18.5
- FF: 9 (second in Syracuse history behind Dwight Freeney)
He’s a very good all-around player who would start for most teams in college football, and he should give a thus-far underwhelming defense a boost.
In general, the Orange has had pretty good play in the secondary this season. Free safety Duce Chestnut (6-0, 200, r-Jr.) has been arguably the best defensive player and he’s been exceptionally good in pass coverage. Clarence Lewis (6-0, 201, Sr.) and Jayden Bellamy (5-11, 174, r-So.) have been solid but unspectacular at corner, but those guys will be facing a Virginia Tech passing game that has been less than impressive.
One guy to watch for is former Virginia Tech commit Marcellus Barnes (6-1, 180, Fr.). He was a starter for two of his first three games for the Orange, then got hurt against Stanford, but returned to play 17 snaps last week against Pitt. He played well when he got the chance early on, but it’s a small sample size and he could be rusty.
Youth up front has been part of the issues for Syracuse against the run. That’s especially the case at defensive tackle where true freshman Maraad Watson (6-3, 313, Fr.) is paired next to true sophomore Rashard Perry (6-3, 291, So.). Those guys have done a pretty good job for their age, but it’s a young group overall.
It’s not that the Syracuse defense finds itself in the wrong spot a lot, though it certainly isn’t perfect. However, the unit misses a ton of tackles, with 71 through seven games. Starting linebacker Justin Barron (6-4, 231, Sr.) is the most guilty with 12, but the responsibility is shared.
On paper, Virginia Tech should have more success running the football than throwing it. All things considered, the Syracuse pass defense has been a bit steadier than the run defense. But how healthy are Hokies running back Bhayshul Tuten and left tackle Xavier Chaplin? Those two players are arguably the best players at their respective positions in the ACC; meanwhile, Syracuse is being strengthened with the return of an All-ACC linebacker.
Syracuse Special Teams
Syracuse ranks No. 125 in F+ special teams efficiency, which is exceptionally bad.
The Orange has used two field goal kickers this year who have combined to go 5-of-11 with a long of just 33 yards. It’s also had two field goals blocked. It allowed a punt return for a touchdown this season, too.
The Hokies should have a special teams advantage in this game, though it remains to be seen how much of a factor it will be.
Virginia Tech-Syracuse Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen in the Dome.
Virginia Tech-Syracuse Final Thoughts
On balance, I think Virginia Tech is better than Syracuse. However, the balance includes a healthy and effective Chaplin and Tuten, and that’s what’s got me divided when picking this game. Brent Pry listed them both as probable on Tuesday, which may or may not mean anything; I remember when Grant Wells was day-to-day for about six weeks, for example. That’s a slight exaggeration, but you know what I mean.I expect they will both play. Pry sounded the most concerned about Tuten during his Tuesday press conference:
“I think Bhayshul is probable right now. Again, I won’t know much more until today and tomorrow, to feel better about it. He is tough. I think we all know that. It was a decent injury that obviously we’re concerned about. If he has an opportunity to play, he will.”
Virginia Tech has had a lot of great running backs in its history. However, I’m not sure it’s had a tougher one than Tuten. He was playing with a brace on his knee earlier this season, so I assume he’ll get through this one as well. But how effective will he be? I really don’t know. He looked like he was in a lot of pain when he was on the ground. If I knew he was going to be at 100% or close to it, I would pick the Hokies.
If he’s not as effective as needed, however, I’m afraid this one could turn into a Drones vs. McCord game, and McCord is clearly the superior passer. While Tech’s pass defense has been good recently, there have been weak spots in the safety areas that previous quarterbacks didn’t take advantage of. Thomas Castellanos overthrew a wide open deep receiver against the safeties, while Zach Pyron was hesitant to pull the trigger on what probably would have been a touchdown in the first half this past week. Meanwhile, McCord isn’t hesitant, and he’s extremely accurate when throwing it downfield.
How is McCord’s mentality after last week? He had been having a good year, but it’s not every day that you throw a trio of pick-sixes in one half of football. I assume he’s old enough and mature enough to get over it quickly, but you never know for sure.
Before last week, I would have picked the Hokie offense to steamroll the Syracuse defense, as it did last season. However, then Tech went out and struggled against a GT defense that had been subpar. I really don’t know what to think, especially with Tuten and Chaplin banged up.
Virginia Tech just won three in a row for the first time in the Pry era. Is four in a row a bridge too far for this group? We’ll see.
Chris's Prediction: Syracuse 27, Virginia Tech 23
Will Stewart (Founder and GM): I’m not going to do any analysis of this game. I’ve been analyzing Virginia Tech games at the Jiffy-Pop Dome since 1996, and it’s all been wasted time and effort, and I’ve been insanely wrong every time. I’ve got better things to do with my time than applying logic to what happens up there.
Beginning sometime around April, when people started to ask me what I thought the Hokies’ record would be this year, my answer was always, “Well, they’re going to lose at Syracuse, so it depends upon what they do in the other 11 games.”
I’m not changing my tune now. I’m leaning hard into this. Virginia Tech will lose again at Syracuse. Change my mind, Virginia Tech coaches and players.
Will’s Prediction: Syracuse 42, Virginia Tech 20
(Oooh, I sound angry. Maybe I am.)
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): I’ve seen people ask, “Why are Virginia Tech fans making playing at Syracuse sound like it’s Penn State or Alabama?” Well, the Hokies have played 10 games up there and are 2-8 with an average margin of defeat by 10 points. The lone quarterbacks to win up there: Erik Chapman (1986) and Michael Vick (2000). Wonky stuff just seems to happen up there.
Virginia Tech isn’t ranked this week, but it was the last six times it played at Syracuse and lost five of those games — including the last two to Orange teams that each finished 4-8.
If Chaplin and Tuten are playing, I’d feel better about this matchup, but the last time the Hokies went on the road and played a talented quarterback who could sling it, Miami’s Cam Ward lit them up for 343 yards and four scores. Granted, that one should’ve ended differently, and Tech was disruptive in that game, but remember all of those coaching mistakes?
Amazingly, that game was over a month ago, and Tech’s had two home games and an open week since. It’s played three mediocre teams, too, and few errors like that have showed up. It wasn’t smooth sailing at Vanderbilt and Old Dominion in the first two games, though.
This one will come down to the little things like coaching decisions and clock management, in my opinion, and I’m not sure I’ve seen enough to feel confident that the Hokies can get it done. This feels like one of those games where if you take a wrong step one too many times, it’ll all go south. I’ve got home team in a close one, which would be the fourth straight time the Orange covered against Tech in the dome (1-7 ATS at Syracuse since 1987).
David’s Prediction: Syracuse 31, Virginia Tech 27
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Do I like this matchup for the Hokies? Not really. We've written and talked endlessly about their history in the Dome, and last week's offensive performance wasn't exactly confidence-inspiring. That said, neither was Syracuse's. And while you could subscribe to the theory that the Orange will be plenty motivated to put that last loss behind them with a great showing at home, you could also point out that against FBS opponents in the Dome this year, 'Cuse has beaten Georgia Tech by three and lost to Stanford by two. That's not exactly an impregnable fortress.
It sure helps that Bhayshul Tuten and Xavier Chaplin sound like they're ready to go. If they weren't, I might think about this matchup in a different way, but given close to a full complement of players, I think the Hokies win this one. If I'm a sucker, I'm a sucker. But in the spirit of all the ghouls around Halloween and the supposed curse associated with the Dome, I'll declare that I ain't afraid of no ghosts. (Though maybe a little, since I'm hedging with a Syracuse cover.)
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Syracuse 28
Nick Brown (Director of Media): I was born in February 2002, which means I’ve only been alive for two Virginia Tech football games played in the Carrier Dome. The first was the triple-overtime thriller that I’ve only seen on YouTube, since I was just nine months old at the time. The second was in 2016 when I was a freshman in high school. It’s pretty wild that I’ve been alive for almost 23 years now and have only seen two games there.
Let’s talk about this year’s game. Syracuse is led by a quarterback who throws nearly 50 times a game. Virginia Tech’s pass defense is its strength, bolstered by a strong pass rush. This aligns beautifully with what happened at Pitt last Thursday. Pitt’s pass defense ranks 14th in the ACC, but they managed to pressure Kyle McCord effectively and force interception after interception. Give APR and this defensive line 50 chances and the Hokies will get to McCord multiple times.
Call me young and naïve because I wasn’t alive for the 1996 and 1998 games, nor do I remember the 2002 game, but I believe Tech will break the “curse.” McCord will feel the pressure, and Syracuse will start to slide after another strong start to the season, as they typically do.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Syracuse 24
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |