- Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech: Saturday, Oct. 26, at noon ET (ACC Network) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Virginia Tech -10.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
This has been an odd series in recent years, and Bill Roth dug up this nugget of a stat:
https://twitter.com/BillRoth2020/status/1848520956286816704
The road team almost always wins in this series, and Georgia Tech has won the last four games in Lane Stadium. There aren’t many teams out there who can say they’ve won four straight in Blacksburg, especially over such a short period of time. In fact, it’s the Hokies’ second-longest losing streak to one team in Lane, trailing only Clemson, who won five in a row from 1977-89.
It’s true, though, and that record spans four different head coaches:
- 2014: Georgia Tech 27, Virginia Tech 24 — Paul Johnson vs. Frank Beamer
- 2016: Georgia Tech 30, Virginia Tech 20 — Paul Johnson vs. Justin Fuente
- 2018: Georgia Tech 49, Virginia Tech 28 — Paul Johnson vs. Justin Fuente
- 2022: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 27 — Brent Key vs. Brent Pry
Stats like that are interesting, but they don’t really matter. There’s nobody left from either roster from the 2018 game, and a lot has changed for both squads since 2022.
The Jackets are 5-3 this season against what has been a pretty tough schedule, though Florida State obviously isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought it would be. It doesn’t get much easier for Georgia Tech down the stretch either: at Virginia Tech, vs. Miami, vs. NC State, at Georgia.
Brent Key has done a very good job since taking over mid-season from Geoff Collins in 2022. Their improvement was noticeable from the very first game under Key, and they’ve played solid football ever since. What does this year’s matchup bring?
Haynes King Or Zach Pyron?
Starting quarterback Haynes King (6-3, 215, r-Jr.) is a very effective player, but he was knocked out of the North Carolina game late two weeks ago. Key said his quarterback is day-to-day, so we’ll have to wait until Saturday to find out whether King is going to play.When healthy, King is a very good runner:
- 2023: 120 carries, 737 yards, 6.1 ypc, 10 TDs
- 2024: 62 carries, 553 yards, 5.7 ypc, 6 TDs
King had 11 carries for 107 yards before getting knocked out against UNC. Georgia Tech’s offensive scheme is very good and makes use of his excellent running ability.
King has also improved as a passer since last season…
- 2023: 226-of-367 (61.6%), 2,842 yards, 27 TDs, 16 INTs
- 2024: 136-of-191 (71.2%), 1,568 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT
In 2023, he led the ACC in both touchdown passes and interceptions. He’s done a great job of reducing his turnovers this season while also improving his completion percentage by nearly 10%. His 71.2% completion percentage is tops in the ACC this season.
Overall, King is a very good player who can cause all sorts of problems for defenses with his legs, and I think the Georgia Tech coaching staff does a really good job of scheming players open in the passing game.
However, King might not play. If he can’t go, then Zach Pyron (6-3, 220, r-So.) will be the guy. If you think that name sounds familiar, it’s because he beat Virginia Tech in Lane Stadium as a true freshman in 2022. Here were his numbers in that game:
- Passing: 19-of-32 (59.4%) for 253 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing: 17 carries, 66 yards, 3.9 ypc, 1 TD
Outside of one pick-six on a very athletic play by Keli Lawson, Pyron was outstanding that day. He got the start against Notre Dame last week and put up the following numbers:
- Passing: 20-of-36 (55.6%), 269 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
- Rushing: 13 carries, 45 yards, 3.5 ypc
He threw a couple of picks but did well considering Notre Dame (a top-10 defense) shut down the Yellow Jacket running game, which put more pressure on the passing game. He’s not the runner that King is, but I would argue that he’s got a stronger arm. He’s not your typical backup; he’s very capable. He’s better than plenty of starters the Hokies have faced over the last couple of years, in my opinion.
My guess is that Virginia Tech will face Pyron. That would be more ideal than facing King, but Tech will still have to play well to beat Pyron.
By the way, our old friend Chris Weinke is Georgia Tech’s assistant head coach/co-offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach and has done a good job down there.
Jamal Haynes And Other Offensive Weapons
The other Haynes — running back Jamal Haynes (5-9, 180, r-Jr.) — also has a huge impact on the Georgia Tech offense. He’s not listed as being very big, but he’s one of those guys who looks and plays bigger than his listed size. His numbers:- 2023: 174 carries, 1,059 yards, 6.1 ypc, 7 TDs, 20 catches, 151 yards, 1 TD
- 2024: 104 carries, 551 yards, 5.3 ypc, 8 TDs, 17 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD
He’s a different running back than Bhayshul Tuten, though. He doesn’t force as many missed tackles or pick up as many yards after contact. He’s got good vision and the Georgia Tech offensive scheme puts him in a good position to succeed. He’s also got a solid cutback ability; see this run against UNC as an example.
The Yellow Jackets’ top receivers aren’t big, but they are good:
- Malik Rutherford (5-9, 170, r-Jr.): 44 catches, 541 yards, 12.3 avg, 2 TDs
- Eric Singleton Jr. (5-11, 190, So.): 36 catches, 458 yards, 12.7 avg, 2 TDs
Both of those guys are also used in the running game with a combined 16 carries this season. Like Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech’s offense is reliant on misdirection and motion, so expect to see the Yellow Jackets get the ball to their playmakers in a variety of ways.
The Georgia Tech Offensive Line And The Lack Of Sacks
The Georgia Tech offensive line is good and experienced, though sometimes it can be outmanned. Andy Bitter summed it up pretty well in his article from Tuesday:
“The Jackets’ rushing splits between wins and losses is pretty clear. In their five wins, they’ve averaged 244.2 yards on the ground. In their three losses to Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame, they’re at 91.3 yards per game.”
They remind me a lot of Virginia Tech over the last nine games of the 2023 season. Their scheme is very good and that works very well against most opposition, but sometimes they can get handled physically. When that happens, it makes it very difficult for the offense as a whole to function.
Here’s what the group looks like:
- LT Corey Robinson II: 6-5, 305, r-Jr. 1,443 career snaps.
- LG Joe Fusile: 6-6, 315, r-Jr. 1,883 career snaps.
- C Weston Franklin: 6-4, 310, Sr. 2,121 career snaps.
- RG Keylan Rutledge: 6-4, 310, Jr. 1,766 career snaps.
- RT Jordan Williams: 6-6, 315, Sr. 3,104 career snaps.
This is probably the most experienced offensive line the Hokies will face this season. Except for Rutledge, they are homegrown at Georgia Tech as well, which means they have been playing together for a long time and have good chemistry.
This matchup concerns me because no matter how you slice it, the Hokies simply haven’t been good at stopping the run this season. They rank No. 90 nationally in run defense (with FCS competition not included) and No. 56 in yards per carry. Virginia Tech’s best game against the run came against a Stanford offense that is one of the worst in the country. Here’s are the game-by-game numbers:
- Vanderbilt: 181 yards
- Marshall: 147
- ODU: 243
- Rutgers: 153
- Miami: 165
- Stanford: 136
- BC: 167
The Hokies were totally crushed in the run game at times in 2023, allowing totals such as 256 to Rutgers, 214 to Marshall, 282 to FSU and 231 to Louisville. However, they also dominated some opponents, allowing 38 against Pitt, 35 against Wake, 0 against Syracuse and 43 against UVa. We haven’t seen any dominating performances against the run this year, and that isn’t likely to begin this week against Georgia Tech either.
Another thing to watch is Antwaun Powell-Ryland vs. Georgia Tech’s pass protection. APR leads the nation with 11 sacks, but the Yellow Jackets have only allowed three sacks all season. Two of those came last week against Notre Dame, one of the nation’s best defenses, and they both came with the Jackets in a big hole (trailing by more than two touchdowns) and in a situation where the Irish could pin their ears back and rush the passer.
That’s the key for the VT defense. If it can slow down the Jacket running game, it’ll have a much better chance of getting pressure. Jumping out to a two-score lead would also help. If the game is close all the way through, Georgia Tech will be able to play to its strengths, so it’s imperative that the Hokies start well. That’s something they’ve been able to do in recent weeks.
An Exploitable Georgia Tech Defense
Here are Georgia Tech’s traditional defensive stats against FBS competition:
- Rushing defense: No. 40
- Yards per carry: No. 55
- Passing defense: No. 90
- Yards per attempt: No. 84
- Opp. Passer rating: No. 92
- Total defense: No. 62
- Yards per play: No. 84
- Tackles for loss: No. 53
- Sacks: No. 116
- Turnovers forced: No. 106
- Opp. Redzone TD %: No. 63
As you can see, the Yellow Jacket defense doesn’t do anything particularly well. The unit has allowed exactly 31 points in each of its three losses. That’s sort of odd. It won’t happen four times in a row, which means I will have to pick the Hokies to score something other than 31 this week.
Cornerback Warren Burrell (6-0, 195, r-Sr.) has probably been Georgia Tech’s best defender. He’s allowed only 142 yards through the air in eight games this season. However, he’s prone to missed tackles in the run game. The other corner — Ahmari Harvey (6-0, 190, r-Jr.) — can be had. Overall, the safeties seem to be the biggest issue in the secondary for the Yellow Jackets, though linebacker and defensive line play has been inconsistent as well.
This is a group that can struggle at times to get off blocks, but tackling has been the main issue so far this season. PFF has the Yellow Jackets at 85 missed tackles so far this year. Let’s compare that to the rest of the ACC:
- Georgia Tech: 85
- Duke: 77
- Cal: 75
- Louisville: 75
- Pitt: 71
- UNC: 70
- SMU: 68
- UVa: 68
- NCSU: 67
- Stanford: 67
- Wake: 67
- BC: 66
- Virginia Tech: 64
- FSU: 63
- Cuse: 63
- Miami: 60
- Clemson: 56
I like that matchup against Bhayshul Tuten, who is one of the best running backs in the country at forcing missed tackles and gaining yards after contact. Tuten is 129 yards away from 1,000 for the season, and I would not be surprised to see him hit that number on Saturday.
Georgia Tech Special Teams
Special teams have been fairly disastrous for the Yellow Jackets this year. Last week against Notre Dame, they dropped a snap and allowed another blocked field goal, and they also gave up a 69-yard punt return touchdown against North Carolina two weeks ago. (If you remember, Tucker Holloway had a 90-yard punt return touchdown for the Hokies against GT in 2022.)Placekicker Aidan Birr is just 6-of-12, and he’s just 1-of-7 beyond 30 yards. If Georgia Tech has the ball in a manageable situation on Virginia Tech’s side of the field, it’s a strong bet that it will go for it on fourth down. It’s 13-of-18 on fourth-down conversion so far in 2024, the 18th-best mark in the FBS.
Other key special teams stats:
- Kickoff returns: No. 69
- Punt returns: No. 68
- Kickoff return defense: No. 121
- Punt return defense: No. 104
Overall, Georgia Tech ranks No. 124 nationally in the F+ special teams rankings, which is one of the worst marks in the country. Conversely, Virginia Tech ranks No. 19. If either side gains an advantage on special teams in this one, on paper, it will be the Hokies.
Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Thursday.
Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech Final Thoughts
This is a game I’ve been looking forward to since before the season began. Both teams are very similar in terms of what they like to do offensively. Both rely on a strong running game; if they don’t get that strong running game, then the offense struggles. Both coaching staffs also rely on a lot of creativity, motion and “smoke and mirrors” to make the offense go.I’m disappointed that Haynes King is injured. I’m assuming he’s not going to play. I think I’d really enjoy watching these two offenses operating at 100% efficiency. I believe that Georgia Tech would have plenty of success against the Hokies with King. I wouldn’t like that, but from a pure entertainment standpoint, I think it would be a fun game to watch.
I still think the Jackets will have success even if King can’t play. They’ve got a good scheme, a veteran offensive line, a good running back and a backup quarterback who has won in Lane Stadium in the past. However, I do think King is worth a touchdown or more, and combined with my belief that Georgia Tech will really struggle to stop the Virginia Tech offense, I see another double digit Hokie win.
I’m basing this pick on my opinion that King will not play. If he does play, then buckle up because this one will get interesting.
Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 37, Georgia Tech 24
Will Stewart (Founder and GM): There are so many interesting subplots about this game, but the biggest one is this: Virginia Tech has never won three games in a row under Brent Pry. This is the sixth chance to do so.
It’s a fork-in-the-road game. Win, and 5-3 (3-1) looks a heck of a lot better than 4-4 (2-2). To take the proper path, the Hokies must avoid the player-fueled gaffes (like the turnovers against Boston College that made a blowout close) and the coaching brain farts (like the clock management issues and double-number screwups earlier in the season).
It’s just like every week: THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE SEASON.
All kidding aside, Virginia Tech’s offense should (should) do well and the Hokies should have the special teams edge. It all comes down to how well the Virginia Tech defense can defend the run and force Georgia Tech into passing situations and playing come-from-behind.
On that front, the outlook is not good. Virginia Tech has the No. 100 rush defense in the country, per cfbstats.com, giving up 170.3 yards rushing per game. Georgia Tech has the No. 40 rushing offense in the nation at 186.9 yards per game. The Jackets are likely to roll up 150-200 yards or more against the Hokies.
Flip that around and you’ve got Virginia Tech’s No. 18 rushing offense (209.3 ypg) against Georgia Tech’s No. 26 rush defense (111.8 ypg). Hmm.
It’s all about avoiding mistakes and turnovers. The Hokies have been on a roll offensively and are starting games well in their last three outings. This should be a really entertaining game. Too bad it’s a nooner.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 24
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): It’s been 12 years since the Hokies last beat the Yellow Jackets at home. Georgia Tech’s left Blacksburg victorious in its last four trips, a trend I believe changes on Saturday.
I expect this one to be close, but then again, Virginia Tech has eight ACC victories under Brent Pry by an average of 23.5 points — all of which have been by 17 points or more. Don’t sleep on the Jackets, but on paper, the Hokies have a clear advantage if Haynes King doesn’t play, despite Zach Pyron having experience in Lane Stadium.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to a few small things. The Hokies have to force turnovers while taking care of the ball. They also need to stay on schedule offensively and give their defense a cushion so they can more or less let loose and get after the Yellow Jackets. Expect special teams to play a huge role, too.
I like Virginia Tech but think it’ll be closer than many expect. Still, I’m not sure this will be a one-score game at the end (and we all know the Hokies’ record in those). I found a gem of a stat that gave me some confidence in this pick, though:
Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have played nine times in Lane Stadium. The Hokies are 4-5 outright but just 1-8 against the spread. (It should be 10 games in the series in Blacksburg but Lee Corso’s car didn’t [have] cover in 2000.) They one time they covered the spread: Sept. 24, 2005, when they were 11-point favorites and won 51-7.
Vegas says it’s VT -10.0, so I’m picking VT to win by nine.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Georgia Tech 26
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Before the season, I pegged this as an upset spot. I thought Georgia Tech was a pretty feisty team that wasn't getting enough preseason love and that home field hasn't really mattered in this game, so coming into Lane Stadium wasn't going to be a daunting task for the Yellow Jackets.
I still think this team is feisty and has a really good run game plus a stout defensive front, but if Haynes King doesn't play -- and it seems like there's a very good chance he won't -- the ceiling of this group is considerably lower. You saw that last week against Notre Dame. Georgia Tech just couldn't get going offensively, which put a tremendous burden on that defense.
Plus, the Hokies feel like they're starting to get rolling right now, just like the second half of last season. That run had some hiccups, but that came against top competition. I don't know that I put the Yellow Jackets in that category. I think Virginia Tech keeps on humming and wins this one by double digits.
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Georgia Tech 20
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Ah, the Techmo Bowl. I’m not sure the origins of that nickname for this game, but I always love a cool rivalry nickname. By the way, if you loved Tecmo Bowl growing up, and you have a smartphone, you should definitely download Retro Bowl College. It’s essentially Tecmo Bowl, but with some super cool bells and whistles tacked onto it. (I should be compensated by them for that free advertisement.)
Anyways, back to the game on Saturday. Boston College was a formidable opponent and Stanford has a strong run defense, but Georgia Tech is better than both of the two previous opponents. The Yellow Jackets offer a unique offensive style that targets the Hokies' weaknesses. On top of all of that, Brent Pry has yet to win three games in a row since arriving in Blacksburg, which could spell out a nasty weekend for the maroon and orange.
Now that previous paragraph made me sound like a negative nancy, so let's talk about why the Hokies will come out on top Saturday. Georgia Tech struggles with tackling, and its special teams, particularly in punt coverage, have stunk. Bhayshul Tuten will have a big game (shocking, I know), and I expect the Hokies to score a special teams touchdown en route to their first three-game winning streak under Coach Pry.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 20
 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |