- Boston College at Virginia Tech: Thursday, Oct. 17, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Virginia Tech -7
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
Meanwhile, the Eagles are reeling from a 24-14 loss to UVa. BC jumped out to a 14-0 lead in that game and looked like it was going to roll. However, three turnovers was its undoing, with one fumble being returned for a touchdown and an interception setting up another score.
Like everyone else not named Cal, the Eagles have beaten Florida State this season, and they’ve gone 3-2 in their other five games. They are good enough to go on the road and play a very competitive game against a ranked Missouri team, but they are also bad enough to nearly lose to Western Kentucky when their starting quarterback couldn’t play.
Bill O’Brien is the new Boston College head coach, taking over for Jeff Hafley, who departed to become the defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers. O’Brien is a veteran who was the head coach at Penn State before moving on to the NFL, where he made four playoff appearances in six full seasons. He had a winning record in five of his seven seasons as an NFL head coach. He knows what he’s doing from an X’s and O’s standpoint.
The Hokies are a touchdown favorite as we head into this matchup. Let’s take a closer look at the Eagles:
As Thomas Castellanos Goes, So Goes BC’s Running Game
Thomas Castellanos (5-9, 196, Jr.) had a fantastic sophomore season with his legs in 2023. The undersized-but-tough quarterback ran for 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and it was his running ability that jumpstarted the Boston College offense en route to a bowl game victory over SMU.He started out 2024 similarly, scampering for 73 yards and a touchdown while averaging 5.2 yards per carry against Florida State. However, his running numbers have taken a nosedive since then:
- Duquesne: 1 carry, 8 yards
- Missouri: 13 carries, 16 yards
- Michigan State: 15 carries, 15 yards
- Virginia: 10 carries, -9 yards
As a comparison, he never ran for fewer than 21 yards last year, and his second-worst outing was 45 yards. For this season, he has just 103 yards, one touchdown and is averaging only 1.9 yards per carry. Clearly something is wrong.
Though Boston College doesn’t reveal the nature or severity of injuries (like most teams these days), Castellanos has been carrying some sort of a knock that is definitely limiting him in the running game. He missed the Western Kentucky game completely before returning last week against UVa. Despite the week off, he had the worst rushing performance of his career against the Cavaliers.
The Eagles haven’t been able to run the ball very well since his injury:
- Missouri: 26 carries, 49 yards
- Michigan State: 43 carries, 152 yards
- Western Kentucky: 35 carries, 111 yards
- Virginia: 29 carries, 65 yards
If Castellanos is a lot healthier against the Hokies after only playing one game in the previous three weekends, then we could see a return to form on Thursday night. However, if he’s still banged up, then the Boston College offense — and particularly the running game — could have serious trouble inside Lane Stadium on Thursday night.
The Eagles have used three running backs with Castellanos limited:
Treshaun Ward (5-10, 190, r-Sr.): Previously an honorable mention All-Big 12 and honorable mention All-ACC player with Kansas State and FSU. He has 50 carries for 283 yards (5.7 ypc) and two TDs on the season. A good back, but probably not big enough to carry the load by himself. He’s also a very capable receiver coming out of the backfield.
Kye Robichaux (6-0, 217, Sr.): The Western Kentucky transfer ran for 780 yards for the Eagles last season. He is a bigger option for BC at tailback. He’s got 204 yards (3.8 ypc) and 2 TDs so far this year.
Turbo Richard (5-8, 200, Fr.): Props to Eric Robinson and Amanda Richard, who bestowed upon their son one of the best names a running back has ever been given. The North Carolina native has 207 yards and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry as a true freshman.
This trio has been solid for the Eagles this season, but the running game hasn’t really been able to get going without Castellanos at 100%.
An Improved Boston College Passing Game
Though he was dominant on the ground last season, Castellanos was questionable through the air. He completed 57.3% of his passes for 2,248 yards, with 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. After the month of September, he surpassed 183 passing yards on just one occasion.Things have changed drastically this season. In five games, he’s completed 67-of-100 (67%) for 983 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has improved tremendously as a passer despite his lack of height.
What’s interesting is that you wouldn’t necessarily have thought it would happen with the coaching changes the Eagles made in the offseason. Quarterbacks coach Jonathan DiBiaso is in his first season as a full-time coach who has the following resume:
- 2023: Offensive analyst at Boston College
- 2022: Offensive analyst at Pitt
- 2021: Offensive analyst at Vanderbilt
- 2018-20: Graduate assistant at Boston College
Full credit to DiBiaso. He looks like a good hire for O’Brien thus far. New offensive coordinator Will Lawing is also inexperienced, with his only previous coordinating experience coming at Juniata College in 2011 and 2012. Despite those guys being brand new to their roles, the Boston College passing offensive has improved quite a bit. It’s had to, considering the struggles of the running game.
Lewis Bond (5-11, 199, r-Jr.) has been BC’s top receiver so far this season. He can line up on the outside, though most of his action comes in the slot — that’s where over half of his snaps have come from. He’s got 30 receptions for 358 yards (11.9 avg) and two touchdowns this season. In 2023, he caught 52 passes for 646 yards and seven touchdowns, so he’s a proven commodity. The Hokies managed to shut him down last year, however, holding him to just two receptions for 15 yards.
Jaedn Skeete (6-2, 191, So.) will line up primarily on the outside. He got off to a slow star this year, not catching any passes against Florida State in the season opener nor in the next week’s game against Duquesne. However, he has 17 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown since then.
Overall, 12 Eagles have caught passes this year, so Boston College likes to spread the ball around. However, Bond and Skeete are the two most dangerous weapons.
The Boston College Offensive Line
Matt Applebaum is in his second stint as the Boston College offensive line coach, and in between he spent a season in the same position with the Miami Dolphins. Most of the BC offensive line has graded out well this season under his leadership:- Pass blocking: 82.9, No. 2 in the ACC
- Run blocking: 73.9, No. 1 in the ACC
The pass blocking grade doesn’t necessarily match up to the traditional stats. The Eagles have allowed 15 sacks this year, No. 96 nationally. However, considering what we know about the health of Castellanos, his injury could have as much to do with that as anything else. BC ranks No. 37 in overall tackles for loss allowed, which leads me to believe that the sacks allowed are more about the health of Castellanos and perhaps the overall BC passing game than anything else.
Here’s how the BC O-line sets up from left to right:
- LT Jude Bowry (6-5, 308, r-So.): 512 career snaps, 76.6 grade in 2024.
- LG Logan Taylor (6-7, 308, r-Jr.): 1,829 career snaps. 71.1 grade in 2024. UVa transfer.
- C Drew Kendall (6-4, 299, r-Jr.): 2,014 career snaps. 76.2 grade in 2024.
- RG Jack Conley (6-7, 325, r-Sr.): 1,584 career snaps. 61.5 grade in 2024.
- RT Ozzy Trapilo (6-8, 309, r-Sr.): 1,918 career snaps. 82.9 grade in 2024.
That’s probably the most experienced offensive line the Hokies will face in 2024, and the Eagles also bring in senior guard Dwayne Allick off the bench as part of a rotation. He has also played over 1,000 career snaps.
This is a good, veteran group, though the effectiveness has been somewhat negated with Castellanos being banged up and the fact that BC doesn’t have a standout every-down running back.
The Boston College Defense, By The Numbers
The Boston College defense has been very good this year. Let’s start with the most basic stats, which is points allowed. I’ll throw out their game against FCS Duquesne and just look at their games against FBS opponents.
- Florida State: 13
- Missouri: 27
- Michigan State: 19
- Western Kentucky: 20
- Virginia: 24
- Average: 20.6 (No. 31 nationally)
Those are impressive numbers, especially when you consider that one of UVa’s scores was a defensive touchdown. If you’re in mid-October and you haven’t allowed 30 points in a game all season, then you’re doing pretty well.
The BC defense seems solid across the board against FBS competition:
- Rush defense: No. 31
- Yards per carry: No. 27
- Pass defense: No. 89
- Yards per attempt: No. 55
- Opp. Pass rating: No. 34
- Total defense: No. 51
- Yards per play: No. 39
The Eagles have given up some yardage in the passing game, but opposing quarterbacks are inefficient overall.
Here’s what the advanced metrics say:
- FEI Defense: No. 56
- DF+: No. 42
- Available Yards: No. 58
Where the Boston College defense stands out is in the red zone:
- Redzone attempts: 20
- Redzone scores: 16
- Redzone touchdowns: 5
The Eagles have allowed just five touchdowns in 20 opponent trips into the redzone, a touchdown percentage that ranks in a tie for No. 2 nationally, behind only Texas. The Hokies will likely get some yards in this game; it’s what they do in the red zone that will decide whether or not they have an efficient offensive game.
Dominant Defensive End Play
The Hokies are used to great play from Antwaun Powell-Ryland, but not even his numbers compare to those of Donovan Ezeiruaku (6-2, 247, Sr.), BC’s star defensive end leads the team in tackles (43), tackles for loss (11.5) and sacks (9, second in the nation). He is a sure-fire first team All-ACC pick at this point, and perhaps even a first team All-American. He has been absolutely dominant.Ezeiruaku has recorded at least one sack in all but one game (he barely played against Duquesne) and has had double-digit sacks in three of BC’s six games. He’s not just a pass rusher, either. He’s been very good against the run this season, and has to be considered one of the best overall players the Hokies will face this year.
You might be wondering what player Ezeiruaku will be facing on Thursday night. He generally lines up as the right side defensive end, meaning he would be facing off against Virginia Tech left tackle Xavier Chaplin. The vast majority of his snaps have come in this role in 2024. However, in the last game against Virginia, the Eagles played him 36 snaps at left defensive end. In that situation, he would be lined up over Hokie right tackle Parker Clements.
Keep your eye on No. 6 on Thursday night. If a play is being made by the Boston College defense, there’s a good chance that Ezeiruaku will be involved.
Two Others To Watch In The Boston College Front Six
The Eagles have had two other players to perform at a high level in their front six so far this season.
DT Cam Horsley (6-4, 306, r-Sr.): Horsley has over 2,000 career snaps in a Boston College uniform. He’s got 4.5 tackles for loss this season and has been playing the run as well as any ACC defensive tackle so far this season.
LB Kam Arnold (6-1, 229, r-Sr.): The inside linebacker isn’t a guy who plays in the backfield very much, but he’s played 2,774 defensive snaps for the Eagles during his career and has been very consistent against the run.
Overall, Boston College is a very experienced defense up front, which helps explain why opponents have had so much trouble running the football this year.
Players To Watch In The Secondary
Here are a few guys to keep an eye on in the passing game:
SS KP Price (6-1, 200, So.): Price is in his first season as a starter after getting his feet wet as a true freshman last season, and he has been a very consistent performer on the back end for the Eagles.
NB Khari Johnson (5-11, 192, r-Sr.): The nickelback played for Arkansas before transferring back to his home state. He’s been good against both the run and the pass this year, allowing just 134 receiving yards in six games.
CB Amari Jackson (5-11, 188, Jr.): Jackson is a veteran who started last season and has improved as a junior.
That’s a solid trio, but overall the Eagles appear to be a better football team in the trenches than they are on the backend.
Boston College Special Teams
Four different players have returned punts for Boston College this season, with the latest being Cameron Martinez against Virginia last week. However, that was his only return of the season thus far, so it doesn’t seem as if the Eagles have found any consistency amongst their returners. Likewise, their kickoff return unit is an unknown. They’ve returned only three kicks all season, with Jayden McGowan getting all three returns for an average of 17.3 yards.
Meanwhile, BC has been terrific in coverage this season. Nine opponent kickoff returns have gone for only an average of 12 yards. Meanwhile, opposing teams are averaging just 4.2 yards per punt return.
Other parts of the kicking game have been pretty interesting for the Eagles. A total of four players have punted, and as a team BC is averaging just 37.24 yards per punt. The Eagles rank No. 126 out of 133 teams in net punting. That should equal a field position advantage for the Hokies, though with shorter punts a big return for Tech is less likely.
In one of the oddest stats you’ll see, Boston College has attempted just one field goal all season. Luca Lombardo made it from 39 yards against Michigan State. That’s the only field goal attempt of his career, so it’s impossible to know whether he’s an effective kicker or not.
Virginia Tech-Boston College Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Thursday.
Virginia Tech-Boston College Final Thoughts
Boston College has improved its rushing defense a lot from last season. Here was its numbers against FBS teams in 2023:- Yards per game: No. 110
- Yards per carry: No. 119
This year’s BC defense isn’t going to be as easy a nut to crack.
- Yards per game: No. 31
- Yards per carry: No. 27
That’s a huge difference. Only one team has averaged four yards per carry or more this year against the Eagles. That was Missouri, and the Tigers just barely did it (4.1 ypc). I don’t see the Hokies breaking off huge chunks of yardage like they did a year ago. In fact, this team is arguably better against the run than the Stanford defense the Hokies faced a week ago.
The Hokies still need to establish the run to open up the pass, however. I still expect to see, and want to see, a heavy dose of Bhayshul Tuten. But it’s important that the Tech passing game is efficient when it does elect to throw it.
Defensively, I feel good about this one. Since scoring 28 in their season opener against a bad FSU team, the Eagles have failed to score more than 23 points against an FBS team, with their low point being a 14-point showing against Virginia last week. Boston College appears to be very limited with Castellanos banged up, even though he has improved his passing efficiency.
Someone must have lobbied the football gods on Virginia Tech’s behalf last December. The Hokies have faced three backup quarterbacks in their last seven games, and now they’ll likely face a hobbled Castellanos. What’s more, Haynes King of Georgia Tech left the UNC game with an injury mid-way through the fourth quarter this past week. Will he be 100%, or even play at all, next weekend? We’ll see.
Tech must capitalize on its good fortune against backup or injured quarterbacks, and I believe it will. I also think it’ll be the first team to top 30 points on the Eagles this year, as I don’t know that the BC defense can continue that insane red zone defense streak of holding opponents to only a 25% touchdown rate. I think BC is tough, very well-coached and disciplined. If Castellanos were healthy, I think it would give the Hokies a lot of trouble, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.
Chris’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Boston College 17
Will Stewart (Founder and GM): Looking at last season’s preview for this matchup, which was played at Chestnut Hill, three of four TSL staffers picked the Hokies to win, but none of us were confident about it. Boston College came into that game with a 6-3 record (4-5 for VT) and a strong rushing attack, and none of us picked VT to win by more than six points. In the fan poll, 37% picked Boston College to win.
After falling behind 7-3, Virginia Tech rolled up 35 straight points on its way to a dominant 48-22 win. Tech outgained BC 600 yards to 262, and the game was never in doubt. Things came together for the Hokies, and that was Virginia Tech’s only regular season win over a team that would finish with a winning record (just barely; BC went 7-6).
That was a tale of two teams that were headed in different directions, and the records didn’t mean anything. I get a similar vibe about this year’s game. Boston College is a good team (that red zone defense against touchdowns is a crazy-good stat), so I’m not going to predict Virginia Tech to roll by several touchdowns, but I will pick the Hokies to win.
Virginia Tech is finding its stride and is coming home for four of its last six games. I think Tech will do a good job controlling the BC offense, but I’m not going to pick the Hokies to score 40-plus against a defense that is so good in the red zone and features a player (Ezeiruaku) that can control his side of the line of scrimmage. I’ve got VT by multiple scores, though.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 17
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): I feel good about the Hokies this week against the Eagles, especially since Castellanos isn’t completely healthy. The open week should’ve helped Virginia Tech heal up, meaning most weapons should be on full display for the entirety of Thursday night, such as wideout Ali Jennings.
Boston College has a very good rushing defense and features one of the best players in the country, but the Hokies have been very balanced offensively the last two weeks and I expect more of the same. The key is staying ahead of the chains and on schedule, which they’ve done well. On the other side, I think Tech will give Castellanos some fits, though I’m not expecting a huge game in terms of sacks because the Eagles are good in pass blocking.
I give the Hokies a two-touchdown edge over the Eagles. They just feel like the more complete team at this point in time, despite BC having some huge strengths that can cause some problems. The sold-out crowd will have an opportunity to play a factor, too. This can be a momentum-building win for Tech.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Boston College 16
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): That Virginia score last week for BC in a 24-14 loss is a little off-putting, but upon closer examination, turnovers played a huge role in that outcome, with Castellanos throwing a costly pick at midfield and UVa returning a fumble for a touchdown to truly turn the tide. Other than that, the Eagles have mostly played in a bunch of tight games this year, losing to Missouri by six, beating Michigan State by four and beating Western Kentucky (without Castellanos) by one.
So I'm going to go with a tight one this week, too, and, at the risk of fighting history, pick the Hokies in a one-score game. I like Tech's ground game to churn out enough yards, the passing game to make some plays and the defense to contain Castellanos enough for the Hokies to get on the right side of .500 again.
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 21
Nick Brown (Director of Media): Since Pry took over, the Hokies are 4-1 in night games at Lane Stadium, with "night games" defined as those kicking off after 6 p.m. (This excludes the 2023 Purdue game.)
Here’s the list:
- 2022 Boston College: 27-10 Win
- 2022 West Virginia: 10-33 Loss
- 2023 Old Dominion: 36-17 Win
- 2023 Pitt: 38-21 Win
- 2023 Syracuse: 38-10 Win
Now of course the opponents listed above are not giants by any means, but the Hokies have dominated under the lights (besides that brutal West Virginia game) under Pry. This is not a world class analysis, but it seems to me that Pry understands the importance of being under the spotlight of college football and amps his teams to the nines for home night games.
Bill O’Brien is a fantastic football coach, but he has a wounded Thomas Castellanos, and a team that Virginia Tech whooped up on last season. The Hokies will win similar to the 2022 orange effect game against the Eagles.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 10
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ (73%) |  |
Vanderbilt 34, Hokies 27 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (50%) |  |
Hokies 31, Marshall 14 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Hokies 37, ODU 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 (39%) | |
Rutgers 26, Hokies 23 | |
| Miami Wins by 11+ (84%) | |
Miami 38, Hokies 34 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Hokies 31, Stanford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (54%) | |
Hokies 42, Eagles 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (51%) | |
Hokies 21, Jackets 6 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (48%) | |
Orange 38, Hokies 31 | |
| Tigers Win by 11+ (54%) | |
Tigers 24, Hokies 14 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 1-10 (46%) | |
Blue Devils 31, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (46%) | |
Hokies 37, Hoos 17 | |
| Gophers by 11+ (45%) | |
Gophers 24, Hokies 10 | |