- Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt: Saturday, August 31 at noon ET (ESPN) from FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.
- Betting Line: Virginia Tech -13.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Nashville weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
After closing the 2023 season strong, Brent Pry managed to retain nearly all of his major contributors, and he also did well in the transfer portal at defensive tackle. Meanwhile, there are a lot of new faces at Vanderbilt between the players and the coaching staff as the Commodores hope to improve on last year’s 2-10 record. This is the type of opponent that the Hokies streamrolled in the second half of last season, but 2024 is a new year and a new start for everyone.
The Clark Lea era at Vanderbilt hasn’t gone particularly well. The former Notre Dame defensive coordinator is now the head coach of his alma mater, and after going 2-10 (0-8 SEC) in his first season in 2021, things improved when the Commodores went 5-7 (2-6) in year two. However, things slipped in his third season. Here’s a look at his overall numbers:
2021: 2-10, 0-8
2022: 5-7, 2-6
2023: 2-10, 0-8
Total: 9-27, 2-22
Alum or not, Lea is likely under plenty of pressure to improve in 2024. As a former defensive coach, it’s on him to fix the defense. To fix the offense, he hired outside help.
*Note: This preview was finished on Tuesday afternoon. At that point, Vanderbilt had not released any game notes or a depth chart. If anything proves to be incorrect, we apologize, but we can’t wait past Tuesday to start writing our game preview because we do our preview podcast on Wednesday morning.
Jerry Kill And A New Offensive Coaching Staff
After serving as the head coach at New Mexico State for the last couple of seasons, the much-traveled Jerry Kill now finds himself as Vanderbilt’s chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor.
Not only did Kill come to Vanderbilt, but other New Mexico State coaches made the jump as well. That includes offensive coordinator Tim Beck, a long-time D-II coach who eventually got his chance in FBS ball and has made the most of it. That offensive staff made big improvements at New Mexico State, going from No. 109 in total offense in 2022 to No.44 in 2023.
Quarterbacks coach Garrett Altman and running backs coach Ghaali Muhammad-Lankford also went to Nashville with Kill and Beck. New offensive line coach Chris Klenakis is a veteran coach who has been at many major programs, but he is best known for his time as offensive coordinator during the heyday of the Nevada program.
In short, this is a revamped staff, and the Virginia Tech defensive coaches will have to be on guard. You can bet that they spent quite a bit of time watching New Mexico State film from last season, and I expect they even went back and watched some old Nevada stuff.
Transfers At Quarterback
Vandy also decided to revamp its quarterback room by bringing in yet another piece from New Mexico State in the form of Diego Pavia (6-0, 207, r-Sr.). He had a great season for the Aggies a year ago. Check out his overall numbers:- Passing: 221-of-336 (60.4%) for 2,973 yards, 8.1 ypa, 26 TDs, 9 INTs
- Rushing: 176 carries, 923 yards, 5.2 ypc, 7 TDs
Pavia is a dangerous player who is probably pretty similar to Thomas Castellanos of Boston College. The Hokies easily handled Castellanos last season, but he was somewhat banged up with his small frame at that point in the season. Pavia should be as healthy as a football player can be for August 31.
Pavia is a gamer who helped New Mexico State upset Auburn last season. He went 19-of-28 for 201 yards and three touchdowns in that game while carrying the ball eight times for 35 yards. I would expect Vanderbilt to try and spread the Hokie defense out and create one-on-one opportunities in the passing game, as well as some wider rushing lanes up the middle. That’s similar to what Old Dominion did to Tech in last year’s season opener. The key for VT will be winning one-on-one battles, particularly up front. I expect Pavia to do a good job, but it’s likely that the other elements of the Vanderbilt offense will let him down.
A Struggling Vanderbilt Offensive Line
Vanderbilt has some guys up front with a lot of experience, but nothing too impressive. Check out these numbers and PFF grades:
- QT Gunnar Hansen (6-5, 330, r-Jr.): 1,400 snaps, 53.4 overall, 61.9 pass blocking, 52.9 run blocking
- QG Kevo Wesley (6-4, 317, r-Sr.): 179 snaps, 58.0 overall, 46.5 pass blocking, 59.0 run blocking
- C Steve Losoya (6-3, 324, r-Sr.): 2,471 snaps, 61.2 overall, 67.6 pass blocking, 57.8 run blocking
- SG Delfin Xavier Castillo (6-5, 361, Sr.): 1,270 snaps, 47.1 overall, 47.9 pass blocking, 50.6 run blocking
- ST Chase Mitchell (6-4, 320, r-Sr.): 856 snaps, 55.9 overall, 48.4 pass blocking, 58.5 run blocking
QT means "quick tackle" and ST means "strong tackle," and the same for the guard positions, so these guys will line up on different sides of the field.
Another offensive guard on the depth chart played a lot last year:
- OG Gage Pitchford (6-6, 315, r-Jr.): 774 snaps, 52.2 overall, 32.0 pass blocking, 56.7 run blocking
Guard Steven Hubbard (6-3, 330 or 390, r-Sr.) was a pretty good player for UTEP, but he's listed as a backup right now. He is 330 on the online roster and 390 on the depth chart. I'm guessing the 330 is correct.
Losoya is Vandy's best starter, having previously played for Mississippi State and Middle Tennessee. Mitchell is a transfer from Liberty. Three of those five guys graded out below 50 in pass blocking last season, and all five graded out below the base average of 60 in run blocking. This group's pass blocking has been abysmal. As a point of comparison, Parker Clements has been much maligned by the Tech fanbase, yet his pass blocking grade last year was a 69.4. Most of Vanderbilt's offensive line is a big step down from Clements, at least in terms of pass blocking.
That said, things can change drastically with a different scheme. (See the Hokies' offensive line in 2023.) Still, this seems to be an advantage for the Virginia Tech defensive line on paper.
Lack Of Proven Receivers
The Commodores lost their top three wide receivers to Colorado, Georgia and Boston College. As such, their wideout room has been completely rebuilt. Of the top nine players listed on their depth chart, six are either transfers or freshmen. Here are some names to remember and their career stats:- Quincy Skinner Jr. (6-2, 205, Sr.): 37 catches, 442 yards, 11.9 avg, 5 TDs
- Loic Fouonji (6-5, 215, r-Sr.): 52 catches, 768 yards, 14.7 avg, 7 TDs (all at Texas Tech)
- Junior Sherrill (5-11, 188, So.): 20 catches, 293 yards, 14.7 avg, 3 TDs
- Dariyan Wiley (6-1, 200, r-Sr.): 43 catches, 578 yards, 13.4 avg, 3 TDs (all at UMass and UL Monroe)
- Jeremiah Dillon (6-1, 191, r-So.): 0 career catches, transfer from Ole Miss
- Richie Hoskins (6-1, 196, Sr.): 6 catches, 83 yards, 13.8 avg, 2 TDs
One player to keep an eye on is tight end Eli Stowers (6-4, 235, r-Jr.). He’s a former quarterback who transferred in from New Mexico State. He had never played tight end before last season when he pulled down 35 catches for 366 yards and two touchdowns. Despite his designation as a tight end, he lined up only 46 times as an inline tight end last season, while playing 204 snaps in the slot and 61 at quarterback. Watch for trick plays. Another note on Stowers: he was so bad at run blocking last year that the New Mexico State coaching staff hardly ever asked him to do it, so unless he’s improved there, the Commodores will be a lot more likely to throw the ball with him in the game.
On paper, Virginia Tech’s Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong have a big advantage on the outside, though Fouonji’s height is concerning. It will be interesting to see what the Vanderbilt staff will be able to scheme up over the middle.
Lack Of Proven Running Backs
Here are Vanderbilt’s top four running backs and their career numbers:
- Sedrick Alexander (5-9, 200, So.): 96 carries, 371 yards, 3.9 ypc, 4 TDs, 18 catches, 133 yards
- AJ Newberry (6-1, 197, r-Fr.): 20 carries, 96 yards, 4.8 ypc
- Moni Jones (6-2, 225, r-Sr.): 198 carries, 726 yards, 3.7 ypc, 9 TDs, 13 catches, 130 yards
- Chase Gillespie (5-10, 200, r-So.): 49 carries, 180 yards, 3.7 ypc, 0 TDs, 6 catches, 36 yards
Of Alexander’s 371 yards, 87 of them came against Alabama A&M, and he didn’t manage better than 46 yards against anyone else. Three of those four backs are under four yards per carry for their careers, and the only one over four yards per carry has gotten just 20 career handoffs, so it’s a very small sample size. Jones was a three-score back last year after rushing for six in 2022 at New Mexico State.
On paper, this doesn’t seem like a group that should pose too much of a problem for the Hokies.
Overall Vanderbilt Offensive Thoughts
Here are Vanderbilt’s key stats from last year, and I’ll include both regular stats and advanced metrics:
Rushing: No. 124
Passing: No. 65
Total: No. 114
Scoring: No. 103
FEI Offense: No. 92
OF+: No. 88
Available Yards %: No. 108
Vanderbilt brought in many new offensive coaches and some new players to try and fix those numbers. I think Pavia will be a big improvement, as will the coaching. However, it seems to lack talent at the other positions, particularly up front. I believe that Pavia will have his moments, but it’s hard to see the Commodores sustaining too many drives. I don’t believe their quarterback has enough good players around him.
The Vanderbilt Defense: By the Numbers
Here’s a look at the numbers posted by the Vanderbilt defense in 2023:Rushing: No. 107
Passing: No. 129
Total: No. 131
Scoring: No. 129
FEI Defense: No. 98
DF+: No. 107
Available Yards %: No. 123
To make it short and sweet, the Vanderbilt defense was one of the worst in the country last season. The Commodores held FCS Alabama A&M to 13 points. Against the other 11 opponents, the fewest points they allowed was 28 to Hawaii. Every SEC team they faced hung at least 31 on them. Even UNLV hung 40 on them.
New Vanderbilt Defensive Coaches
As a former defensive coordinator, this is Lea’s mess to fix, and he decided to take personal responsibility in the offseason by appointing himself defensive coordinator. He also brought in some new coaches:
- Steve Gregory: associate defensive coordinator and secondary coach
- Seth Payne: assistant defensive line coach and pass rush specialist
- Melvin Rice: safeties coach
- Jamal Richardson*: cornerbacks coach
*Richardson was promoted from quality control.
With a new staff, we can probably expect a few different things from the Commodores, but since Lea is a defensive guy, I wouldn’t expect huge changes. The biggest change will be Lea himself calling defensive plays. In theory, the Commodores run a three-man front, but it’s adaptable like most defenses these days. They use a position called the RAZOR on the edge who is part defensive lineman and part linebacker.
New Faces
Vanderbilt also hit the portal to address some of its defensive issues.
DT Zaylin Wood (6-0, 280, r-Sr.): The Middle Tennessee transfer has played 1,698 career snaps and has been very solid for his entire career. He is projected to be an upgrade for the Vanderbilt defensive line.
LB Randon Fontenette (6-2, 220, So.): Fontenette did solid work in very limited snaps (81) for TCU last season. It remains to be seen whether he’s ready to play major snaps as a starter.
CB Kolbey Taylor (6-3, 190, Sr.): Taylor is a transfer from Wyoming who has been named to The Freaks List by The Athletic twice during his career. Despite that recognition, he has never been a particularly good cornerback. He allowed a 61.2% completion percentage last season and 14.1 yards per reception. Perhaps this will be the year where he puts it all together, but judging from his past, the Hokies have an advantage here.
DE Khordae Sydnor (6-4, 266, Sr.): Sydor is a transfer from Purdue who played against the Hokies last season. He didn’t get too many snaps with the Boilermakers, but he's projected to start for Vanderbilt.
Wood should make the Vanderbilt defense better, while the other three additions don’t seem like they’ll move the needle.
Vanderbilt’s Best Defenders
Though he only played in nine games last season, strong safety CJ Taylor (6-1, 204, Sr.) had a very good year. He plays close to the line of scrimmage so much that Pro Football Focus actually grades him as a weakside linebacker. You can see his versatility as a player when you look at his snap breakdown from last season:Box: 193 snaps
Slot corner: 187
D-line (edge): 83
Free safety: 37
Wide corner: 6
Good against both the run and the pass, it’s likely that Taylor got some major offers to enter the portal after last season, but he elected to stick with Vanderbilt. The Virginia Tech offense will have to account for him and know where he is at all times.
Though he split time, middle linebacker Langston Patterson (6-1, 230, Jr.) was also a good player for the Commodores last season, and he did his best work against the run. He led the team with 74 tackles, but he only played 347 snaps, which indicates that the Vanderbilt coaching staff thought he had a weakness that needed to be covered up. My guess is pass defense. Still, Patterson is a solid player who is a net positive for the Vandy defense.
Safety De'Rickey Wright (6-4, 229, Sr.) was often hit or miss last season. He had several really good games, but a few bad ones as well. He's been challenged by four-star true freshman Dontae Carter (6-1, 185), a highly-coveted capture from Texas. Carter is currently second on the depth chart and will play at some point this year for Vandy, but it remains to be seen whether or not that will be in Week 1.
Can The Returning Players Who Struggled Improve in 2024?
As you can tell from their overall team defensive numbers, it was a struggle for most of the Commodore defenders last season. The following returning players, who are projected as starters this year, had trouble when on the field:
NT Yilanan Ouattara (6-7, 311, Jr.): Originally from Germany. Struggled mightily against the run in 238 snaps last season. He's in the two-deep again this year.
DT Devin Lee (6-2, 290, Sr.): In 483 snaps, he was amongst Vandy’s lowest-grading defenders with a 51.4.
RAZOR Miles Capers (6-4, 235, r-Jr.): Capers was okay against the run, but struggled against the pass. He was generally asked to rush the passer in part to get him out of pass coverage.
LB Bryan Longwell (6-1, 227, So.): Longwell held up better against the run than you would expect a true freshman to do, but it was difficult for him in the passing game. He should be improved there this year, but how much?
CB Martel Hight (6-0, 180, So.): Hight played a ton for a true freshman last year — 510 defensive snaps, to be exact. However, opposing quarterbacks completed a whopping 74.5% of their passes against him and averaged 15.4 yards per attempt. He should improve, but again, this is a matchup that favors Virginia Tech.
CB Tyson Russell (5-11, 185, Sr.): Another very experienced corner, Russell didn't play very well last year, with opposing quarterbacks completing 79.1% of their passes against him.
Overall Vanderbilt Defensive Thoughts
Vanderbilt has a few quality pieces but has more question marks than strengths overall. The defensive staff changes could help, but there were just too many players last year who played at a sub-par level to forecast much improvement. Outside of Wood, I’m not sure how much the transfer portal guys will help immediately. I also see three particularly weak cornerbacks in Vanderbilt's rotation. Two of them allowed completion percentages of greater than 70%, with the other at over 60%. Dorian Strong (27.3%) and Mansoor Delane (55.8%) they are not.Once the Hokies tweaked their offensive scheme last year, there was only one type of defense that could stop them: good, physical, athletic and disciplined up front. Those teams were Florida State, Louisville and NC State. All three of those teams put top-30 defenses on the field and were dominant in the trenches.
It’s the first game, so we truthfully don’t know exactly what Vanderbilt is right now. But I do know what the Commodores are not, and they are not FSU, Louisville or NC State in the trenches. Or at cornerback, for that matter. Everything points to a successful offensive game for Virginia Tech.
The Vanderbilt Special Teams
Redshirt freshman Taylor Brock is expected to handle the placekicking duties. He’s never kicked before, so there is no scouting report. Punter Jesse Mirco is an Australian who was Ohio State’s starter for three years, so he should be good.
In the return game, Martel Hight is expected to field punts. Again, there’s not much of a scouting report, as he has just one return (for 22 yards) in his career, which came against FCS Alabama A&M. Junior Sherrill and true freshman Tristen Brown could be the guys returning kicks. Neither have ever returned a kick in a college game.
Overall, Vanderbilt was solid on special teams last year, finishing No. 39 in the FEI Special Teams Ratings. However, Virginia Tech was No. 11 in the same ranking, and the Hokies have proven explosive talent in the return game.
Before we make our staff picks, what's your prediction?
Virginia Tech-Vanderbilt Final Thoughts
On paper, Virginia Tech holds a major advantage in this game. It appears to be better than Vanderbilt just about everywhere. Pavia at quarterback is a concern, but if his offensive line remains bad, his running backs aren’t game-breakers and there aren’t really any proven wideouts, how much damage can one man do? Probably not enough to offset a Vanderbilt defense that couldn’t hold anyone with a pulse below 31 points.In this era of the transfer portal, it’s possible to improve dramatically from one year to the next. We saw it with Virginia Tech last year. Outside of Pavia, Vanderbilt’s transfers don’t seem to be high-impact guys, however. I do like Wood at defensive end, but defensive linemen rotate so much these days that I can’t see him drastically changing the fortunes of the Commodore defense.
While I think Vanderbilt will be better this year, I also think that Virginia Tech will be better. You can slice it and dice it however you want, but all analytical data supports a Hokie victory in Week 1.
Chris's Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Vanderbilt 17
Will Stewart’s Take: I’m drinking the Kool-Aid pretty heavily. I think VT rolls pretty handily in this one.
The aspects of Virginia Tech’s team that we’re not sure about are the offensive line and the propensity of the defense to give up big plays.
I don’t think the Vanderbilt defense is capable of exploiting VT’s offensive line — and certainly not the Hokies’ skill players — and an even bigger mismatch is Virginia Tech’s defensive line versus Vanderbilt’s offensive line.
One thing that gives me pause is the uncertainty of a season-opening road game, but to balance that concern out, it’s worth noting that the Hokies don’t have a lot of unknowns going into the season. There are a lot of players returning who have played a lot of football together, and no turnover on the coaching staff, either.
Vanderbilt’s roster and coaching staff has experienced a lot more turnover and will need time to gel. (Ask Florida State what that’s like.)
The consistency in Virginia Tech’s program versus Vanderbilt’s state of flux, plus a talent advantage for the Hokies, lead me to pick the Hokies by a large margin.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Vanderbilt 10
David Cunningham's Take: The parallels are quite interesting. Everyone knows so much about Virginia Tech, who returns almost everyone and plugged the remaining holes. Vanderbilt is the exact opposite, with so many new players and staff members, which naturally leads to so many question marks.
Diego Pavia is excellent, but while I think he’ll get the best of the Hokies on a handful of occasions on Saturday, the lack of talent and/or experience around him is surprising. He has some unproven skill players and sits behind an offensive line that historically hasn’t held up. That’s a stark difference from Tech, which has a dominant defensive line. Having two star, lockdown cornerbacks helps, too. The run fit questions still exist, but the unit has an opportunity to get rid of those demons.
The Commodores’ defense is interesting... but it struggled to stop everyone it played last year. Lest we forget the Hokies return all but one starter from the 2023 offensive unit that hit its stride at the end of the season. That should pay dividends across the board, and there are so few questions to answer as a result. Kyron Drones is the guy and has so many talented players around him. It’s just a matter of finding balance.
Once Tech turned the corner last year, this is the kind of opponent it waxed. I feel like it’s going to be a similar situation on Saturday in Nashville. The more experienced and better team wins handily.
David's Prediction: Virginia Tech 41, Vanderbilt 13
Andy Bitter's Take: The Hokies' offense feels primed to have a big game, with a rushing attack that finished last season strong and almost everyone back. There could be a chance for weird stuff to happen in the first game, but ultimately, I think Tech's talent wins out and it gets the points rolling.
On the other side, I don't like Vanderbilt's offensive line, certainly going up against the Hokies' defensive front, but Pavia's a warrior and I think he'll find a way to make some plays.
Andy's Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Vanderbilt 20