Tulane Study, Part 3: Personnel

The Hokies are back in the bowl business as they look to earn a winning season. In their way is a depleted, yet still dangerous, ranked AAC powerhouse in Tulane.

The Tulane Offense

Tulane’s been hit hard from top-to-bottom by new jobs, draft prep, and the portal. Let’s get the missing guys out of the way, as reported by The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate:

• Michael Pratt, All-AAC QB (NFL)
• Chris Brazell, Top WR (Portal)
• Jha’Quan Jackson, #2 WR (NFL)
• Prince Pines, Starting LG (NFL)

While there’s a lot of shuffling on the roster, the coaches aren’t quite as shaken-up. Offensive coordinator/QB coach Slade Nagle was rumored to be heading to Houston, but he remains and adds “interim head coach” to his titles. OL coach Dan Roushar is still in the Big Easy, as is RB coach Carter Sheridan.

The biggest news is that Kai Horton’s (QB, #12) hanging around for the game. Horton entered the portal at the end of the season, and if he was gone, Tulane would be hurting. Horton’s not nearly as good as Pratt, but he’s solid and he’s experienced; he started against Ole Miss, had Tulane leading early, and nearly got the win. He puts up some nice balls, he’ll put his head down on interior runs, and he looks like he gets the scheme. He also had no hesitation pulling the trigger on one-on-one balls, as shown on this slot-fade concept:

He lost his touch as the game progressed against Ole Miss, though a barrage of hits, pressures, and drops by his receivers makes his game look worse in the stats than it did live. Forcing throws into coverage might’ve been his biggest problem, though interestingly his only INT was off a route-breakdown with a receiver. As a runner, he’s not as quick or as escapable as Pratt though, and if Tech gets in the backfield (which I think is very likely) he’ll take some hits and sacks. Against Ole Miss, Tulane opted for several direct snaps to the backs in short-yardage spots, and I’d expect some of the same in Annapolis.

Running back Makhi Hughes (#21) might be the best player left on the offense, though I think Tech’s played (and practiced) against a few better runners this season already. He slashes up bad defenses and keeps his feet moving and grinding out yards against good ones. He’s patient, and when Tulane’s got blockers in the backfield he’s good picking his way on Counter plays, and when they’ve got several tight ends up on the line, he’s likewise patient with zone calls:

The receivers have obviously taken a hit, but they have a bright spot in the return of Lawrence Keys (#6) in the slot. Keys is quick and he makes some tough catches:

His only charged drop on the year was on a falling back-shoulder fade grab in the end zone against tight coverage by an Ole Miss corner. He’s got a few carries on the year, and with the attrition in his position group, I’d expect him to be Plan A and Plan B in the jet/rocket sweep game.

I noted tight end Alex Bauman (#87) in my earlier jet sweep article because he does lots of little things that help the offense tick. He’s smart enough to make all the reads in the option game, and he can shuffle back in and deliver some good lead blocks on draws. He’s also got some size and some talent, and he’d probably get a little more attention on a weaker squad. I expect he’ll get more targets than usual.

Last, and maybe least, is the offensive line. At the top, I noted they’re losing Prince Pines to the draft, but I only noticed him when he was getting beat. As a unit, they handled some teams easily, but then they spent a lot of time getting blown by and blown backwards by the better defenses on the schedule. Sincere Haynesworth (C, #52) and Cameron Wire (OT, #61) both won first-team All-AAC, but they both got handled by Ole Miss and SMU:

Haynesworth struggles more against power moves, and while the Hokies don’t have a bull-rush specialist on the team, I think they’ll be quicker than any front he’s seen this year.

Against Ole Miss, Tulane broke out the slow screens pretty early; if you see the same against Tech, the Hokies might already have them on the ropes. If the Hokies build a good lead, it’s probably game over for the Wave.

The Tulane Defense

Tulane’s been running a hybrid scheme that shakes out a bit like a 4-2 defense when all’s said and done. At its peak, this is a very good squad that gave Ole Miss plenty to handle, and was especially vicious against the gap-scheme options and toss plays, which will make for an interesting match against Tech’s running game. More recently, Tulane would’ve smothered SMU if not for some heroics by their quarterback.

There’s some drama in the coaching staff changes, as new head coach Jon Sumrall fired a few coaches who wanted to hang around for the bowl game. Per reports, those coaches were recruiting current Tulane players to their new job in Houston. Whoops. Among those gone includes defensive coordinator Shiel Wood. I haven’t seen any info on who’ll replace him for the bowl game, though it likely means most of Tech’s tendency studies won’t be reliable.

Tulane is also missing a few good defenders:

• Darius Hodges, All-AAC DE (NFL)
• Jarius Monroe, All-AAC CB (NFL)
• DJ Douglas, Starting Safety (Portal)

Both Monroe and Douglas looked like liabilities early in the season, though they rounded into form late. Hodges was a pass-rush specialist who only started two games this year, but made up for it with big plays. He ended up with 400 snaps, so he’s big part of the squad.

That said, Tulane’s got some depth up front. Patrick Jenkins (#0) is another first-team AAC dog, and he rarely leaves the field. He’s not as dynamic a rusher as Hodges is, but he’s heavier against the run and can bust things up pretty well, too:

Devin Deal (DE, #90) is another one to watch for. He’s strong but quick enough to come off being optioned and tackle the QB on a keeper.

The linebackers jumped out at me in, especially Jesus Machado (#99) and Jared Small (#45), who is an LSU transfer. They both looked confident and quick filtering through the offense and finding the ball, and they both laid some big hits. Small had a nasty one where he de-helmeted a scrambling Ole Miss quarterback.

Tulane’s secondary has been good, but they’ll miss Monroe and Douglas. Kam Pedescleaux (#8) is still with the squad, though, and he has been a consistent presence in the nickel spot:

He’s built like Jaylin Lane, and you’ll probably see them going against each other often. On the perimeter, Lance Robinson (CB, #7) looked as good as Monroe in the clips I watched:

One guy who stuck out as a liability for Tulane has been Bailey Despanie (#32) at deep safety. He gets picked on in coverage and has a knack for missed tackles, including when he’s the last line of defense. I expect the Hokies to break a play or two at his expense. Add in that he’ll be next to a second-stringer, the Tulane defense is finding themselves in a similarly compromised spot as the Hokies.

Special Teams

Valentino Ambrosio (K, #43) has been hot on intermediate kicks, but hasn’t attempted any from 50+ yards in his career; punter Will Karoll (#49) has been solid. The biggest factor might be the loss of dangerous Jha’Quan Jackson as a punt returner, though they still have Shedro Lewis (PR, #0) who snagged a TD against Tulsa. Their snapping game doesn’t look especially crisp, so there might be a block opportunity in there somewhere.

Intangibles

The whole game’s a pile of motivational and schematic questions.

Wrapping Up

I could see it being a dogfight almost as easily as I can see the Hokies routing a beleaguered Green Wave squad. I think the Hokies will be dialed in, and I think Tulane’s too tough a squad to just roll over, but eventually Tulane’s player and personnel losses will let the Hokies pull away. Not having a strong feeling, I’m borrowing the score from the 2006 Gator Bowl for my final prediction of the season:

VT 35, Tulane 24