- Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse: Thursday, Oct. 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: VT -2.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Virginia Tech game notes: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
There are big stakes for both sides, who are both coming off open weeks. The Orange desperately needs a conference victory after getting throttled by North Carolina (40-7) and Florida State (41-3) in consecutive weeks. When the two sides kick off on Thursday, it’ll have been almost five weeks since ‘Cuse last won a game, which came vs. Army on Sept. 23.
On the other side, the Hokies have momentum. After a 1-3 start, they’ve won two of their last three games with a 22-point defeat in Tallahassee and, amazingly, control their own destiny on the league. They’re in a tie for fourth right now with Duke.
Though Syracuse is above .500 overall, given the ACC record, this could almost be considered a must-win for Virginia Tech. A victory here would do wonders, vaulting the team into a three-way tie for second in the conference with Louisville (who Tech plays next on Saturday, Nov. 4) and North Carolina.
Moreover, it would put Tech at an even 4-4 with four games remaining. Two wins in the final stretch of @Louisville, @Boston College, NC State and @Virginia — the latter three squads are a combined 4-6 in the ACC, 10-11 overall — is doable, but three is asking a lot.
Dino Babers is in his eighth season at Syracuse and is 40-52 (18-42 ACC). He led the program to a bowl twice in his previous seven seasons (2018 and 2022). A win in Blacksburg would leave ‘Cuse a win away from bowl eligibility with Boston College, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest remaining.
The Orange has won four of the last five games in the series dating back to 2001. Two of those wins (2001, 2021) came in Lane Stadium while the Hokies lost a triple-overtime thriller in the then-Carrier Dome in 2002 (50-42 — Bryan Randall threw for 504 yards and five touchdowns, four to Ernest Wilford in the loss) and faltered in a 2016 road trip as the No. 17 team in the nation.
Babers and Brent Pry are very familiar with each other, though Thursday will be just their second time on opposite sidelines. The first instance was Aug. 31, 2002, when Pry was in his first-ever game as a defensive coordinator at Louisiana and Babers was a second-year offensive coordinator at Texas A&M. The No. 23 Aggies beat the Ragin’ Cajuns 31-7 that day, but with 12 combined turnovers, it was an extremely chaotic a football game.
Syracuse Quarterback Garrett Shrader
One of the veteran quarterbacks of the ACC, Garrett Shrader (6-4, 225, Sr.) is in his third season with the Orange. He’s on his third offensive coordinator in as many seasons, having worked with Sterlin Gilbert (2021), Robert Anae (2022) and now Jason Beck. Beck was his quarterbacks coach last season after joining ‘Cuse from Virginia with Anae in December 2021.
Shrader has been average this season through the air: 111-for-179 for 1,371 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions. He has four receivers with 20 or more targets this season, too:
- Umari Hatcher (6-3, 183, r-So. from Woodbridge, Va.): 21 rec, 346 yards, 2 TD; 49 ypg
- Damien Alford (6-6, 210, Jr.): 20 rec, 319 yards, 1 TD; 46 ypg
- Donovan Brown (6-1, 178, r-Fr.): 22 rec, 298 yds, 1 TD; 43 ypg
- RB LeQuint Allen (6-0, 195, So.): 23 rec, 157 yards, 1 TD; 22 ypg
He’s not quite on pace to match his 2022 passing numbers, but what really makes him dynamic is his running ability. In his Syracuse career, he has 401 carries for 1,592 yards. (That would rank second at Tech in terms of rushing numbers by a quarterback, behind only Tyrod Taylor’s 2,196 yards.) In 2023, he’s run the ball 78 times for 358 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and just over 50 yards per game.
That doesn’t bode well for a Virginia Tech defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards in four of its seven games. Though it held Pitt to 38 yards and Wake Forest to 35, opponents are still averaging 172 yards per game on the ground.
Shrader’s elusiveness was on display when Syracuse ventured to Blacksburg in 2021. He was inconsistent through the air, completing just 16 of his 34 passes (47%) for 236 yards and two scores, yet he gashed the Hokies on the ground.
He had 174 rushing yards on 22 carries, an average of 7.9 yards per carry, to go with three touchdowns. Tech only sacked him once for three yards. That stat line was the third-most rushing yards in a game by a quarterback against the Hokies since 1987.
That was a game in which Tech led by nine, 36-27, with five minutes to go but blew a lead. Shrader had two touchdown passes in the final two-and-a-half minutes, one of which was a 45-yard strike over the outstretched arms of Dorian Strong with 19 seconds remaining.
Hokies linebacker Keli Lawson told the media on Thursday that it’s not the defense’s first rodeo with a running quarterback this season, and he’s right. But that’s not to say the unit’s fared well. Here’s a breakdown:
- Old Dominion’s Grant Wilson: 19 rush, 81 yards, 4.3 avg
- Rutgers’ Gavin Wimsatt: 11 rush, 87 yards, 1 TD, 7.9 avg
- Florida State’s Jordan Travis: 10 rush, 25 yards, 2.5 avg
Sack numbers factor in there, and the Hokies got to Wilson five times and Travis twice. But Travis, who was banged up when FSU hosted Tech in early October, didn’t need to run the ball; instead, he completed 18 of his 24 pass attempts for 170 yards and two scores. And Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili did the rest, carrying the ball 17 times for 250 yards and three touchdowns.
Similar to Travis, Wimsatt had a solid partner in the backfield in Kyle Monangai, who averaged 8.9 yards per attempt on his way to a three-touchdown day (16 rushes, 143 yards).
Shrader has some aforementioned weapons in the passing game, but what really makes Syracuse tick, like Florida State and Rutgers, is the other half of the explosive quarterback-running back duo.
Run-Heavy Offense
LeQuint Allen, a sophomore from Millville, N.J. (the hometown of Virginia Tech men’s basketball fan favorite Justyn Mutts), received the torch at running back in the offseason after Sean Tucker left. (Tucker torched Tech for 112 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries in 2021.)Alongside Shrader, Allen is the other part of Syracuse’s two-headed monster offensively. While Shrader is fourth in the ACC in terms of rushing yards by a quarterback — behind Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos, Duke’s Riley Leonard and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King — Allen is sixth in the league in rushing overall. He has 106 carries for 511 yards (4.8 ypc) this season with seven touchdowns and a long of 35. He’s averaging 73 yards per game.
Allen (106) and Shrader (78) have accounted for 184 of the Orange’s 268 carries (69%) and own all 13 of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Redshirt junior running back Juwaun Price accounted for 40 of the other attempts on the ground, though almost half (16) came in ‘Cuse’s demolition of Western Michigan in early September. He has 18 carries for 43 yards in the last four games.
Shrader and Allen are the two stars that make Syracuse go offensively and make up the second-most effective duo in the ACC in terms of touchdowns scored with 14. Only Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan (RB) and Jamari Thrash (WR) have accounted for more (16).
It’s a 55%-45% run-pass split for Syracuse in Beck’s first year as offensive coordinator at the FBS level. The production has slowly slipped, though, and the offense hasn’t posted more than 300 yards of total offense since the victory over Army.
- Colgate: 677 yards on 89 plays (7.6 ypp)
- Western Michigan: 496 yards on 76 plays (6.5)
- Purdue: 455 yards on 72 plays (6.3)
- Army: 403 yards on 63 plays (6.4)
- Clemson: 281 yards on 65 plays (4.3)
- North Carolina: 221 yards on 51 plays (4.3)
- Florida State: 261 yards on 67 plays (3.9)
Has the Orange gotten worse or have the opposing defenses gotten better? Here are the total defense rankings of ‘Cuse’s FBS opponents:
- WMU: No. 102 (405 ypg)
- Purdue: No. 91 (395)
- Army: No. 69 (381)
- Clemson: No. 7 (276)
- UNC: No. 64 (370)
- FSU: No. 51 (350)
One could make that argument, but Syracuse posted more yards against the seventh-best defense than the 64th-best defense. It’s a combination of a lot of things.
For starters, the Orange hasn’t gotten Shrader on the move much lately. He has just 92 yards on 42 rushing attempts (2.2 avg) in the last four games with one touchdown. His production was very Purdue-heavy; he ran for four touchdowns and 195 yards on 25 carries (7.8 avg) in that game. (Somehow, the Hokies amassed a mind-boggling 11 yards on 22 attempts in their meeting with the Boilermakers.)
While he completed the majority of his passes against the Tar Heels (71%) and aired it out for two scores against the Tigers, Shrader hasn’t completed more than 15 passes and thrown the ball for more than 200 yards in the last three games. He’s very turnover prone, too, and has an interception in five of his seven outings this year.
Syracuse Offensive Line Struggles
The offensive line is part of the reason why Shrader & Co. have been limited lately. Syracuse has allowed multiple sacks in five of the last seven games, including five against Clemson. The ‘Noles got to Shrader three times in Tallahassee, and even Purdue sacked him four times.
It’s a very veteran group up front, yet one that’s struggled. Here’s a look at the Orange’s two-deep on the offensive line and their overall PFF grades on the year:
Left tackle
Enrique Cruz (6-6, 311, r-So.): 47.2
Joe Cruz (6-5, 302, r-Fr.): 55.1
Left guard
Chris Bleich (6-6, 323, r-Sr.): 62.1
Joe More (6-5, 306, r-Sr.): 52.4
Center
J’Onre Reed (6-3, 315, Jr.): 60.9
Josh Ilaoa (6-3, 334, Jr): 57.4
Right guard
Jakob Bradford (6-5, 309, r-Jr.): 61.9
Joe More (6-5, 306, r-Sr.): 52.4
Right tackle
Mark Petry (6-4, 292, r-Jr): 55.3
Joe Cruz (6-5, 302, r-Fr.): 55.1
Only three of the five starters have a grade above 60. That’s something defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland, who had four sacks against Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech should be able to take advantage of Thursday night, whether in the run or pass game.
Summarizing The Syracuse Offense
Shrader and Allen are dangerous, but outside of that, it’s an average group — or even below average in some cases — across the board. Here are the overall PFF grades for the entire Syracuse offense:
One injury in particular really hurt ‘Cuse this season: tight end Oronde Gadsden. A 6-5 junior from Ft. Lauderdale, he was a First Team All-ACC performer last year and led all tight ends in the country with 969 receiving yards on 61 catches. He also accounted for six touchdowns on his way to setting single-season program records for receptions and receiving yards by a tight end. He only played in the first two games of this campaign before suffering a season-ending injury.
Only once this season has the Orange thrown the ball more than it ran it, which was against Western Michigan. Given the Hokies’ previous issues stopping the run, it should be a pretty simple gameplan for Syracuse in Lane Stadium.
Babers’ squad ranks ninth in rushing offense and eighth in passing offense in the ACC. Virginia Tech has faced a better group in both categories once this season: Florida State, who ranks fourth in the air and seventh on the ground. (Wake Forest is 10th in rushing and Pitt is 14th.)
This will be the second-best test in ACC play for Chris Marve & Co. this season (which isn’t saying much). Their biggest challenge outside of stopping the run is third-down defense. Syracuse has converted 46% of its third down attempts this season, a number that ranks 22nd in the country and third in the league.
A receiver to keep an eye on as of late is tight end Dan Villari (6-4, 235, r-So.). He has 12 catches for 166 yards and a score, and most of his production came in the last three games (nine receptions, 94 yards, one touchdown).
Like the gameplan from Syracuse, the assignment should be simple on Thursday for the Hokies: Stop the run and make Shrader beat you with his arm. Forcing turnovers against a mistake-prone offense is key, too.
The Syracuse Defense
Defense isn’t exactly Syracuse’s strong suit, at least in some areas. While it ranks fifth in the ACC in rush defense, allowing just 125 yards per game, it’s dead last in passing defense, a category the Hokies lead.The Syracuse two-deep features just two second-year players in cornerback Jayden Bellamy (5-11, 180, r-Fr.), who has played well this season, and safety Jaeden Gould (6-2, 205, r-Fr.). There are 10 sophomores, seven juniors and three seniors, so it’s a pretty young unit.
Former San Diego State head coach Rocky Long is Syracuse’s defensive coordinator. He runs his renowned 3-3-5 scheme that features a rover that is a hybrid position. In this team, that player is Justin Barron (6-4, 231, Jr.). Safety Alijah Clark (6-1, 186, Jr.), ‘Cuse’s second-highest graded defensive player, is listed as his backup.
The Orange’s strength has been getting in the backfield and creating havoc. It ranks 14th in the FBS, third in the ACC, in tackles for loss with 7.3 per game and has 51 on the season. Those numbers come from a variety of places, too. Mike linebacker Marlowe Wax (6-1, 230, Jr.) leads the way with 5.5 while Barron has five, and sam linebacker Leon Lowery (6-4, 239, r-So.) has 4.5. Two defensive linemen — Kevon Darton (5-11, 271, r-Jr.) and Caleb Okechukwu (6-4, 276, r-Sr.) — have four apiece.
Lowery is ‘Cuse’s sack leader with 3.5 while Darton has three. Will linebacker Derek McDonald 6-4, 224, r-So.), second team mike linebacker Anwar Sparrow (6-1, 225, r-So. from Virginia Beach), Wax and Okechukwu each have two. For the season, Syracuse has 20 sacks for 127 yards, which ranks fourth in the conference. It’s forced 12 fumbles this season, too, and recovered six, a conference-best that ranks 20th in the nation.
In terms of stop rate, the Orange ranks 11th in first-down conversion defense and 13th on third downs. Where it succeeds, though, is in the red zone. Unlike Virginia Tech, who is tied for the worst red zone defense in the country this year — the Hokies have allowed opponents to score on all 16 trips inside the 20-yard line — Syracuse is eighth in the FBS and third in the league in that area of the field.
Opponents are 16-of-24 (67%) this year with 10 touchdowns and six field goals. For comparison, Tech is 23-of-27 offensively in that part of the field this season. (The Syracuse offense is close to that mark with 23 conversions on 29 attempts — 79%.)
Here’s a breakdown of the ‘Cuse defensive two-deep with overall PFF grades for 2023:
Clark has been the most consistent player, especially in coverage (83.8), while Sparrow’s been good in limited snaps (102). At cornerback, Isaiah Johnson (6-3, 205, r-Sr.) and Jeremiah Wilson (5-10, 179, So.) have been okay. Teams are completing 64% and 63% of their passes against those two, respectively, so while they’ve posted good grades, they have their weaknesses. Johnson gave up 80 yards and five completions at FSU while Wilson allowed 76 yards and four catches vs. Clemson.
If someone is going to make a play, there’s a good chance it’ll be Wax. He has three forced fumbles and an interception this season.
Syracuse will provide a good challenge for Tyler Bowen’s offense and force quarterback Kyron Drones to make quick decisions in the passing game. Long will likely try to confuse Drones with different stunts with the linebackers, such as indicating a heavy blitz and proceeding to drop eight and just rush three. It’s not a scheme that will test Drones’ preparation, patience and decision-making.
Special Teams
The Orange has been solid on special teams this year, particularly in the punt game. When you have an offense that struggles, you need a good punter — Virginia Tech knows that feeling — and ‘Cuse has one in Jack Stonehouse (6-1, 199, r-So.).
The Missouri transfer has 32 punts for 1,474 yards this season with a long of 60 yards. Eleven of his punts have been downed inside the 20 and he’s forced 12 fair catches while only recording three touchbacks. He’s the ACC’s top punter and averages 46.1 yards per boot. His action has picked up over the last three games — he’s punted 21 times for 985 yards (46.9 avg).
Kicker Brady Denaburg (6-0, 195, So.) has done his job this season, drilling seven of his 10 field goal attempts with misses from 37, 44 and 57. He’s also 24-for-25 on extra points.
Denaburg been fantastic as a kickoff specialist with 37 of his 39 kickoffs going for touchbacks. One of those outliers was a fair catch called by Colgate; the other was a 12-yard return by Army. Virginia Tech running back Bhayshul Tuten housed a 99-yard kickoff against Florida State, meaning the Hokies have threatened in that realm. If they have a chance to return a kick against Syracuse, that could be a game-changer considering the Orange haven’t defended many.
Before we make our staff picks, what's your prediction?
Final Thoughts
Don’t look now but two of the last three games of the season might be more difficult now than they were a month ago.Virginia Tech ships up to Boston on Nov. 11 for a clash with the Eagles, who have won three games in a row after starting 1-3. And Virginia, who the Hokies travel to on Nov. 25, beat No. 10 North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday for its second win of the season. It’s the Cavaliers’ first-ever road win over a top-10 foe in program history. (For comparison, the Hokies have three: 1989 West Virginia, 2004 Miami and 2014 Ohio State.)
The point is that the remaining schedule, which once seemed like a relative cakewalk for an average program, might be deceiving. All the more reason why the Hokies need a victory over Syracuse on Thursday to get to 4-4. There’s a big difference in trying to win two games versus three games in the final four attempts, especially when three of those outings come away from Lane Stadium.
Tech has lost its last seven games off a long open week, meaning a layoff of eight-plus days, a streak that dates back to the 2018 loss at Old Dominion. The Orange is coming off an open week, too, so there’s not exactly a one-sided advantage here.
But when I think back to last season’s game off an open week, at No. 24 NC State in late October, one thing sticks out in my mind: The Hokies had that game in the bag and led 21-3 with 4:02 left in the third quarter. But they blew it late against the Wolfpack’s true freshman quarterback, MJ Morris (who is now starting for that squad), dropping to 2-6.
I’m feeling confident about the Hokies in this game. They’ve played better football as of late and are almost perfect at home this year. I’d argue the last time they didn’t play well for an entire game was Sept. 23 at Marshall. That was almost five weeks ago. They steadily improved against Pitt, Florida State and Wake Forest.
The Tech offense has an identity now and has played with it as of late. The biggest question is if the defense can stop the run, but that group has answered the bell in the last two home games. This challenge is different with Shrader and Allen, but if the defense can play to its strengths while the offense continues to make strides, the Hokies could win their third straight ACC home game (for the first time since 2019).
I haven’t picked Tech since the Purdue game in Week 2 — only Will and Andy have been confident enough to do so, and Andy was right against Wake Forest — but I see enough weaknesses in this Syracuse side. Combine that with the steps forward Pry & Co. have taken recently and I think the Hokies get this one.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Syracuse 30
Chris Coleman’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Syracuse 20
Will Stewart’s Take: Looking at Syracuse’s conventional stats, there’s not anything the Orange do particularly well. Their offense ranks in the 50s and 60s – completely average – in the major metrics of total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense, passing offense, and pass efficiency.
Defensively, it’s more of the same, where the Orange rank No. 77 in total defense but a solid No. 43 in scoring defense. They are No. 65 in turnover margin.
They are average up and down the line. Probably the only thing that stands out is that they rank around 100 in penalties and No. 107 in time of possession.
I think Virginia Tech can have some success offensively, but Syracuse has the potential to gash the Hokies with their running game when Tech is on defense.
It’s about trust, folks. Namely, do you trust Virginia Tech’s defense to stop the Syracuse running game? I’m not sure I do, but in my desire to see the Hokies take a step forward and have a good time Thursday night, I’ll go with the heart pick this week, not the head pick.
Fair warning: I haven’t been good at picking games this year, zigging when I should be zagging. Nonetheless,
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Syracuse 20
Andy Bitter’s Take: The Orange isn't as bad as it has played the last three games. In fact, despite Syracuse's 0-3 record in ACC play, I think it's better than both the Pitt and Wake Forest teams that came into Lane Stadium previously. The nonconference win against Purdue, a team that beat the Hokies, should tell everyone that recent results against the top teams in the ACC shouldn't be a bellwether.
That said, the Hokies have played pretty well at home lately. And while Syracuse has a much better rushing attack than either Pitt or Wake Forest, and should challenge Tech on the ground severely Thursday, I'm betting on the Hokies having figured something out the last few weeks. They might give up more big plays than the last two home wins, but I think they'll make some of their own, too. I like Tech in a tight one.
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech, 23, Syracuse 20
Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Wake Forest Prediction Poll Results
Game Result: Virginia Tech 30, Wake Forest 13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ |  |
Hokies 36, ODU 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 |  |
Purdue 24, Hokies 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 | |
Rutgers 35, Hokies 16 | |
| Marshall Wins by 1-10 | |
Marshall 24, Hokies 17 | |
| Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10 | |
Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21 | |
| FSU Wins by 11+ | |
FSU 39, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 30, Deacs 13 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 38, Orange 10 | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ | |
Cardinals 34, Hokies 3 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 48, Eagles 22 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 55, Hoos 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 41, Green Wave 20 | |