- Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest: Saturday, October 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting Line: VT -1.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
Dave Clawson was once Brent Pry’s position coach in 1991 when Pry was a defensive back at Buffalo. Clawson's Demon Deacons are off to a 3-2 start in 2023 after back-to-back defeats to Georgia Tech and Clemson. Wake Forest has a good running game and an above-average defense but isn’t as dangerous in the passing game with Sam Hartman now playing for Notre Dame. Still, it runs the slow mesh, and with Tech’s linebackers struggling with their reads and run fits this year, it will be a challenge against two quality running backs who will want to put on a show in their home state.
It's also a big game for Wake Forest, who has a tough schedule down the stretch. If it can beat the Hokies and knock off Pitt in the next game, it’ll be sitting at 5-2 and in a much better position to make an eighth consecutive bowl game as it enters the home stretch with games against Florida State, Duke, NC State, Notre Dame and Syracuse.
New Wake Forest Quarterback Mitch Griffis
With Sam Hartman transferring to Notre Dame, Mitch Griffis (5-11, 193, r-So.) was elevated to the starting quarterback position. He’s an undersized player from Northern Virginia (Broad Run High School, Ashburn) who lacks size and doesn’t have as big an arm as Hartman, but he’s in his third year in Clawson’s slow mesh system.
For the season, he is 92-of-152 (60.5%) for 1,150 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s had less success the last two weeks against Georgia Tech and Clemson, however, throwing just one touchdown with two interceptions while averaging just over 150 yards per game and completing under 60% of his passes.
Of note, Griffis has run the ball the last two games. Here are his game-by-game carry totals:
- Elon: 11
- Vanderbilt: 7
- ODU: 12
- GT: 20
- Clemson: 14
Wake Forest has had a big issue with sacks allowed, which we’ll get to later, but Griffis has been involved in the running game more the last two weeks. He only has 64 yards on the ground on 64 carries, but don’t let that fool you; he’s been sacked 22 times. On his 42 non-sack plays, he’s gained 208 yards and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
He’s capable of doing some good things when protected, but he doesn’t appear to have the deep ball ability of Hartman.
Griffis has a trio of wide receivers who have a lot of experience in the system:
- Taylor Morin (5-10, 180, r-Jr.): 1,888 career snaps, 141 catches, 1,849 yards, 13.1 avg, 19 TDs. Another Virginian from Westfield High School in Centreville.
- Jahmal Banks (6-4, 205, Jr.): 1,025 career snaps, 80 catches, 1,082 yards, 13.5 avg, 12 TDs. Banks played for powerhouse St. Frances Academy in Maryland.
- Ke’Shawn Williams (5-10, 190, Jr.): 966 career snaps, 84 catches, 1,189 yards, 14.2 avg, 5 TDs.
That’s a veteran group to lean upon, and sophomore Wesley Grimes (6-2, 187, So.) is a former 4-star recruit and top-10 North Carolina player by 247, On3 and Rivals who is making an impact as he’s getting serious playing time for the first time. He’s averaging 20 yards on his 12 receptions this season.
Griffis doesn’t necessarily scare me as a passer, but those receivers are very good and very experienced. The Hokies need to get pressure on him or else he’s capable of doing damage with those good wideouts. Speaking of pressure…
Sacks A Major Issue For Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons have allowed 22 sacks in five games. Here’s how it breaks down game-by-game:
- Elon: 4
- Vanderbilt: 2
- Old Dominion: 4
- Georgia Tech: 8
- Clemson: 4
- Total: 22
Their 4.40 sacks allowed per game ranks No. 120 out of 133 teams in the country. By comparison, Old Dominion is dead last, and the Monarchs allow 5.33 sacks per game. Tech had five against ODU, which just about kept up with their season average. The way I see it, the Hokies need to get a least four against the Demon Deacons. That high number of sacks has thrown the Wake Forest offense off-balance, and Tech can’t afford to let it get its footing.
A great example is Wake Forest’s 30-16 loss to Georgia Tech, which was a one-score game until the final two minutes. Eight sacks kill any chance of you have of winning a football game like that. It puts you behind the chains, and that type of pressure leads to turnovers.
You can probably lay some of the issues at the feet of Griffis, who is a brand-new quarterback and still inexperienced. However, the offensive line has also had its share of issues. For example, new starting right tackle Erik Russell (6-6, 301, r-So.) had only played eight career snaps before this season. He was beaten up badly in pass protection by Georgia Tech and Clemson over the last two weeks.
Regardless of the reasons, the Hokies need to create havoc in the backfield this week. That’s one of the main reasons the Deacons are 0-2 in ACC play thus far.
Good Wake Forest Running Backs
Wake Forest has a pair of quality running backs. One is a very experienced player, while another is a new player whose name Virginia Tech fans may be familiar with from the recruiting process. Both just happen to be Virginia natives.
247Sports ranked Demond Claiborne (5-9, 200, So.) a 4-star recruit and the No. 149 overall player in the country coming out of high school. However, that final evaluation did not take place until after his senior season was complete and he had already committed to Wake Forest. It’s unknown how many teams tried to flip him at the end, but he stayed loyal to Dave Clawson & Co. thanks to their early loyalty to him.
I think the top-150 ranking for him was a bit aggressive coming out of King William High School in Aylett, Va., but I did view him as a top-10 prospect in the state. After playing a lot of special teams as a true freshman last season, Claiborne has 371 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry in the first five games of his college career. That includes a 26-carry, 165-yard (6.3 ypc) effort against Vanderbilt in Week 2.
Claiborne is joined in the backfield by veteran Justice Ellison (5-10, 209, Jr.), a Third-Team All-ACC player last season. For his career, he has 1,606 rushing yards and averages 4.6 yards per carry. A graduate of The Flint Hill School in Ashburn, Ellis had a big game two weeks ago against Georgia Tech with 137 yards on 18 carries. He also had an 18-carry, 114-yard performance in Wake Forest’s victory against Florida State last season.
Both Claiborne and Ellison should have plenty of family members at the game, and they’re facing a Virginia Tech run defense that has allowed the following numbers this season:
- ODU: 43 carries, 201 yards, 4.7 ypc
- Purdue: 46 carries, 179 yards, 3.9 ypc
- Rutgers: 34 carries, 256 yards, 7.5 ypc
- Marshall: 44 carries, 214 yards, 4.9 ypc
- Pitt: 24 carries, 38 yards, 1.6 ypc
- FSU: 36 carries, 282 yards, 7.8 ypc
- Total: 227 carries, 1,170 yards, 5.3 ypc
Outside of the Pitt game, the Hokies have been terrible against the run. Virginia Tech ranks No. 123 out of 133 teams in yards per game allowed; the only Power 5 team with a worse mark is Georgia Tech. The Hokies also rank No. 120 in yards per carry allowed, the worst in the Power 5. The crazy thing is that those numbers include the Pitt game. Exactly how bad is that Panther offense? Pretty bad, apparently.
Wake Forest is averaging 161.8 rushing yards per game, but its 3.73 yards per carry average ranks No. 105 thanks to the number of sacks it’s allowed. The slow mesh will be a brand new challenge for a Virginia Tech defense that has struggled with its reads and gap fitting this week. The Deacons will probably lean on the run, and Claiborne and Ellison will both be expecting to put up big numbers as they return to their home state. Throw in Griffis and his solid running ability when he isn’t being sacked, and it seems like they have the opportunity to be balanced this weekend.
Watch Out For Jasheen Davis
Defensive end Jasheen Davis (6-3, 259, Jr.) is a really good player who you’ve probably never heard of. He was credited with 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks a year ago, yet that was only good enough for All-ACC Honorable Mention. In 2021 he was a Freshman All-American who had 8.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks as the Demon Deacons won the Atlantic Division.
So far in 2022, Davis has seven tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in five games, and he seems well on his way to racking up more ACC honors at the end of this season. He’s at 29.5 tackles for loss and 17 sacks for his career less than halfway through his junior season, and he could end up as one of those guys who finishes his career with over 50 tackles for loss and around 30 sacks.
The Wake Forest Defense As A Whole
Overall the Wake Forest defense has been very sound this year. No player with 100-plus snaps has graded out at lower than a 63.0. Here’s a look at all of its rotational players on defense. As you can see, there’s not really a huge weakness to exploit:
I would say that pass defense has been the Deacons’ strength thus far. Here are those numbers:
- Yards per game: 209.4, No. 43
- Opp. Completion%: 58.6, No. 39
- Opp. Yards per Att: 6.7, No. 43
- Opp. QB Rating: 119.59, No. 34
That’s not dominant, but it’s good, and they’re facing a Virginia Tech passing attack that ranks No. 100 or worse in three of those metrics and No. 96 in the other. Just this past week, Wake Forest held Clemson’s Cade Klubnik to 131 passing yards and no touchdowns on 28 attempts, an excellent performance. That’s a week after Klubnik threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns on 37 attempts against Syracuse and two weeks after he had 283 yards and a touchdown on 38 attempts against FSU. The Deacons are doing something right there.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is No. 55 in rushing yards allowed per game and No. 64 in yards per carry allowed. That’s right around average, and considering Tech’s strength is running the football and not throwing it, I think it’s pretty clear what the Hokies need to do in this football game to win.
Other Wake Forest Defensive Players To Watch
I’ll make note of a couple of other Wake Forest players to watch, but in general, this is a defense that lacks star power.MLB Jacob Roberts (6-1, 233, Sr.): The North Carolina A&T transfer will be very familiar with Bhayshul Tuten. However, where he’s made the biggest impact is rushing the passer. He’s got five sacks on the season, though he wasn’t nearly as effective against Georgia Tech and Duke.
CB Caelen Carson (6-0, 195, Jr.): He hasn’t been as consistent this year, but Carson has been very good in coverage for the Demon Deacons in his career. Opponents have completed just 51.8% of their passes against him during his time in Winston-Salem.
Despite the lack of star power, this is a solid group that has greatly improved since former Charlotte head coach Brad Lambert took over as defensive coordinator last season. He’s got a ton of experience as a coach at schools such as Marshall, Purdue and Georgia.
Wake Forest Special Teams
Wake Forest kicker Matthew Dennis (5-11, 193, r-So.) was 12-of-14 last season on his field goal attempts. This year, he’s 11-of-13. He’s very good, but there are questions if he can make them beyond 50 yards. The Demon Deacons have also put 17 of their 29 kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks this season. I’d be kicking away from Tuten if I were them.
Taylor Morin is one of the most solid, yet unspectacular punt returners that you’ll see. He has 56 career returns and is very reliable. He’s averaged 9.1 yards per return in his career but has never taken one back for a touchdown. Ke’Shawn Williams is averaging 25.3 yards per kickoff return this season and exactly 20 per return for his career.
Before we make our staff picks, what's your prediction?
Virginia Tech-Wake Forest Final Thoughts
This is the first time all season that I’ve written a game preview without knowing who I was going to pick before I began writing. I’m 4-2 in previous games, being wrong about the Purdue and Pitt outcomes.I can see either team winning this game, and it’s not difficult to see how each team could find a path to victory. For the Hokies, if they focus on the running game and then pass off the run, they can score in this game. However, if they come out pass happy against a team with a good pass defense, things probably won’t go well. Likewise, Wake Forest’s limitations at quarterback could certainly help the Hokies if they can get their act together and stop the run.
On the other side, Wake Forest has a veteran defensive coordinator matched up against Tyler Bowen, while offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero has been with Dave Clawson since 2009. It might have a limitation at quarterback, but everybody in that operation knows the offense like the back of their hand, players included. The Demon Deacons have run blocked pretty well, they’ve got two good options in the backfield and a quarterback who can also help in the running game. That slow mesh is bound to mess with the reads of a struggling group of VT linebackers, and Jalen Stroman being out for the first half won’t help a bit. If the Deacs can run it, it may not matter how well they can pass it. It sure didn’t matter for Rutgers or Marshall, whose quarterbacks stunk it up against the Hokies.
VTizzle said it best on the boards. If I was Virginia Tech, I’d blitz the inside linebackers heavily to limit the Deacons’ reads and mix up the coverage behind them with robber coverage. I’d even drop my defensive ends back into coverage and depend on my very good cornerbacks on the outside.
In the end, I’m going with Wake Forest. It’s a winning program with a 21-11 record over its last 32 games with a 10-8 mark in ACC play during that span. Ultimately, I trust Wake Forest’s experienced coordinators over Tech’s, and in the end, I think the more established system will prevail. This seems like it’s going to be a close game, and that’s not an environment in which Tech has thrived the last couple of years. The fact that the Hokies have scored 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games also doesn’t do anything for my confidence, though I’ve got them getting slightly more than that this week.
Chris's Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Virginia Tech 20
Will Stewart’s Take: If there was a theme in our writing this week, it was this: the Virginia Tech run defense isn’t going to get better this season. It’s going to continue to give up big runs against everyone not named Pitt, so the question becomes, what do you do to counter?
I’ve become smitten with the idea of playing man coverage, blitzing the hell out of the run gaps, dropping the D-line into short zone coverage and letting the safeties clean up whatever makes it through. (Shout out to @VTizzle)
That’s a high-risk way of playing defense that a team like FSU could probably shred. Wake Forest, however, seems vulnerable to that sort of attack, though admittedly the slow mesh changes the calculus. If the Hokies come at the Demon Deacons defensively and get them behind the chains, maybe they’ll be able to cut drives short and fewer long runs will occur. But what do I know? I’ve never coached a game in my life. I’ll bet the linebackers would enjoy that kind of strategy, though.
Offensively, take the run-pass ratio out of balance, to something like two runs for every pass. Or, as Chris Coleman says, Bhayshul Tuten’s touches should be equal to or greater than Kyron Drones’s pass attempts. That’s a tidy way to think of it.
In the end, this isn’t one of Wake Forest’s better teams, but it’s got some strengths it can lean on, and it’s got a coaching advantage over the Hokies in terms of experience and accomplishments.
Will’s Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Virginia Tech 17 (since Virginia Tech scores 17 in most of its losses)
David Cunningham's Take: I feel like I’ve said this a million times this season, but I’m not picking the Hokies again until they show me they’re capable of playing consistent football. And, despite what that result against Pitt might seem to show, I’m not buying it.
This is a well-coached football team on the other sideline this week in Wake Forest. Dave Clawson doesn’t do anything flashy or fancy — I’d argue the slow mesh is anything but — yet he’s found a way to get results in Winston-Salem. At the same time, I don’t have much confidence in the Hokies to keep up on the defensive end.
After the loss against Florida State, I was actually pretty optimistic. The Seminoles are a good, talented team that is way above the Tech’s level. The positive, though, is that the Hokies have six games remaining, almost all of which are against bang average teams. This is another one of those.
I think it’ll be a close game, but I can’t see Virginia Tech stopping the run enough to win. The margins are thin, as Brent Pry has said numerous times, and the Hokies can’t make dumb mistakes that will cost them the game. Through six games, I have a hard time believing that’s going to happen. If Tech keeps the ball on the ground and gets Bhayshul Tuten 25-plus touches, it’ll have a very good chance at winning this one — controlling the clock and moving the chains are key — but ultimately, I’m leaning towards the Demon Deacons because Tech hasn’t shown me enough this year to make me pick the other way.
David's Prediction: Wake Forest 23, Virginia Tech 21
Andy Bitter's Take: The Deacons are a well-coached team, and as such could be a problem for any team that's got a load of issues. (cough ... Tech ... cough) But this isn't the offense Wake Forest has put out there the last couple of seasons with Sam Hartman. Mitch Griffis' total QBR on ESPN.com is 37.3. That's slightly worse than Pitt's Phil Jurkovec (38.2). Sure, Tech's run defense is a mess, but how much could it help that the Hokies aren't facing a passing offense that's been all too dynamic?
The Hokies are running the ball better and, if they come out with the right game plan for Drones (read: not throwing it all over the place), it feels like they might be able to do some things on offense. Add in another sellout crowd, which I think was a factor in the Pitt win, and I like Tech in a close one.
Andy's Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Wake Forest 20
Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Florida State Prediction Poll Results
Game Result: FSU 39, Virginia Tech 17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ |  |
Hokies 36, ODU 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 |  |
Purdue 24, Hokies 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 | |
Rutgers 35, Hokies 16 | |
| Marshall Wins by 1-10 | |
Marshall 24, Hokies 17 | |
| Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10 | |
Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21 | |
| FSU Wins by 11+ | |
FSU 39, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 30, Deacs 13 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 38, Orange 10 | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ | |
Cardinals 34, Hokies 3 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 48, Eagles 22 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 55, Hoos 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 41, Green Wave 20 | |