- Virginia Tech vs. Pitt: Saturday, Sept. 30, 8 p.m. ET, ACC Network
- Betting Line: Pitt -2.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
There are plenty of offensive numbers that you can throw around, but here’s how each team compares in the traditional stats (FBS opponents only)…
Scoring Offense: VT No. 88, Pitt No. 112
Rushing Offense: VT No. 99, Pitt No. 100
Yards per carry: VT No. 101, Pitt No. 128
Total offense: VT No. 96, Pitt No. 125
QB Rating: VT No. 87, Pitt No. 122
In the traditional metrics, Virginia Tech actually holds the offensive advantage over the Panthers. Here are some analytical numbers to chew on…
Tech is No. 94 in F+ offense while Pitt is No. 75. That metric combines the FEI ratings with the S&P+ rankings.
The advanced stats show that Pitt is a bit better this week, while the traditional stats lead you to believe that the Hokies have a slight advantage. I think you’re probably splitting hairs. Unfortunately, the metrics also show that Pitt has a rather substantial advantage defensively, but we’ll get to that later. Still, victory over Pat Narduzzi is certainly possible on Saturday night; the Hokies will have to be good at closing, which is something they’ve been pretty bad at since 2022.
Extended Carries For Rodney Hammond Jr.?
Pitt running back Rodney Hammond Jr. (5-9, 195, Jr.) has been a rotational player for most of his career, but he has solid numbers when he’s gotten enough carries. The Norfolk, Va., native put up the following numbers when he's rushed 10-plus times in a game:
2021 New Hampshire: 17 carries, 100 yards, 5.9 ypc, 3 TDs
2021 Clemson: 11 carries, 66 yards, 6 ypc
2021 Duke: 16 carries, 81 yards, 5.1 ypc, 1 TD
2021 UVA: 15 carries, 66 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD
2021 Syracuse: 15 carries, 51 yards, 3.4 ypc
2022 WVU: 16 carries, 74 yards, 4.6 ypc, 2 TDs
2022 Syracuse: 28 carries, 124 yards, 4.4 ypc, 1 TD
2022 UVA: 13 carries, 39 yards, 3 ypc
2022 Miami: 10 carries, 56 yards, 5.6 ypc
2022 UCLA: 25 carries, 94 yards, 3.8 ypc, 2 TDs
2023 WVU: 14 carries, 49 yards, 3.5 ypc
2023 UNC: 14 carries, 83 yards, 5.9 ypc, 1 TD
Total: 194 carries, 883 yards, 4.5 ypc, 11 TDs
He's not an elite back, but he’s solid and has shown that he’s capable of putting up good numbers when he gets extended work. Considering what Virginia Tech has done against the running game this year, Hammond should be practically begging offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. for more carries this weekend.
Pitt has also used two other backs — C'Bo Flemister (5-11, 205, r-Sr.) and Daniel Carter (5-10, 230, r-Sr.) — who each have 22 carries on the season. However, they each only got one carry last week against North Carolina so we’ll have to wait and see what the rotation looks like on Saturday. Considering the struggles of Pitt’s passing game and the weakness of the Virginia Tech defense, I would expect a run-heavy offensive gameplan.
The Struggles Of Phil Jurkovec
Pitt quarterback Phil Jurkovec (6-5, 235, r-Sr.) had a very good year at Boston College in 2020 when he completed 61% of his passes for 2,558 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. Those numbers would have been even higher, but he played in just 10 games in a COVID-plagued season. He was considered one of the ACC’s brightest quarterback talents after that campaign.
However, things started to go downhill for him afterwards. His numbers dropped off and he struggled with injuries. By 2022, he wasn’t anywhere near as productive as he was in the past. He suffered drops in completion percentage and yards per attempt while his TD-INT ratio also dropped to 11-8.
Seeking to reignite his career, Jurkovec entered the transfer portal for his final season of eligibility. He very quickly settled on Pittsburgh, as he’s a Steel City native, and Pitt offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. was his OC in his successful 2020 campaign in Chestnut Hill. Both guys know each other very well and the transfer made sense. It was a very good idea, but there’s one big problem — it hasn’t worked.
Here are Jurkovec’s game-by-game numbers so far in 2023:
Wofford: 17-of-23 (73.9%) for 214 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
Cincinnati: 10-of-32 (31.3%) for 179 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
West Virginia: 8-of-20 (40%) for 81 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs
North Carolina: 11-of-15 (73.3%) for 109 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Total: 46-of-90 (51.1%) for 583 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs
“Not great, Bob” is the phrase that comes to mind.
Jurkovec was knocked out of the UNC game with an injury and was replaced by Christian Veilleux (6-4, 220, r-So.). Veilleux is a Penn State transfer, and while he doesn’t have a ton of experience, he threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers before transferring. However, he had a very rough day against UNC, going 7-of-18 (38.9%) for 85 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
That’s two quarterbacks who have struggled for the Panthers this season. Both of them have performed at a higher level in the past, albeit in a very small sample size in the case of Veilleux. That leads me to believe that there is some sort of deeper offensive issue at Pitt right now. I’m guessing the fanbase isn’t too happy with Cignetti.
At any rate, for the third straight week, the Hokies will be facing a team that struggles mightily to throw the football. Take a look at these team numbers for Rutgers, Marshall, and Pitt:
Yards per attempt: Rutgers No. 97, Marshall No. 64, Pitt No. 111
Yards per game: Rutgers No. 124, Marshall No. 77, Pitt No. 108
QB Rating: Rutgers No. 102, Marshall No. 75, Pitt No. 122
Completion %: Rutgers No. 127, Marshall No. 38, Pitt No. 132
Believe it or not, the Marshall passing game is miles ahead of the Rutgers and Pitt passing games. This one is probably more like the Rutgers matchup than anything, with the big exception that the Panthers don’t have a mobile quarterback. With yet another one-dimensional opponent on the horizon, it’s imperative that Virginia Tech does a much better job stopping the run this week.
Experienced Veteran Missing Up Front
Veteran left tackle Matt Goncalves (6-6, 330, r-Sr.) will miss the remainder of the season with an injury, according to Narduzzi in his weekly press conference. He was a Third Team All-ACC player last season and a Freshman All-American in 2020, so this is a significant blow for the Panthers.
Despite Pitt’s overall struggles on offense, Goncalves (who is still listed No. 1 on the Pitt depth chart despite Narduzzi’s announcement, which shows you that it’s pointless to check many teams’ depth chart these days) was still playing at a good level. However, his replacement Ryan Baer (6-7, 330, r-Fr.) was beaten badly in his first career start against UNC last season. He struggled in both the run game and the pass game, but especially the pass game.
Baer moved to right tackle for that game; normal right tackle Branson Taylor (6-5, 330, r-Jr.) shifted over to the left side. Right guard has also been a struggle for Pitt. BJ Williams (6-3, 315, Fr.) played a lot in the first two games, and he’s still technically listed at the top of the depth chart. However, he’s played just eight snaps the last two games and Jason Collier Jr. (6-6, 330, r-Sr.) has played 111 in the same span. It’s Collier who seems the most likely to get the start against Virginia Tech.
The Pitt line is massive across the board, as you might imagine, but has struggled, particularly in run blocking. On paper, the unit struggle even more with Goncalves out.
The Pitt Defense: By The Numbers
As bad as the Pitt offense has been this season, and as close of a comparison as we can make between both offenses in the statistics, there is an advantage for the Panthers on the defensive side of the ball. Here’s how the teams stack up in the traditional stats against FBS opponents…
Rushing: VT No. 121, Pitt No. 78
Yards per carry: VT No. 110, Pitt No. 38
Passing: VT No. 2, Pitt No. 14
Opp. QB Rating: VT No. 27, Pitt No. 93
Total: VT No. 48, Pitt No. 29
Yards per play: VT No. 44, Pitt No. 25
Pitt’s defense is not dominant, and though it appears to be behind Tech in pass defense, the group is much better against the run. That’s especially the case in yards per carry allowed.
In the advanced metrics, Virginia Tech is No. 68 in F+ defense while Pitt ranks No. 38. F+ defense is a combination of the FEI metrics and the S&P+ ratings.
Defensive Players To Watch
Pat Narduzzi knows what he’s doing on the defensive side of the ball, and while it’s common for Virginia Tech fans to believe that the Hokies’ defensive tackles are too small, Narduzzi has been making a living off of that for years.
Devin Danielson (6-2, 290, r-Sr.) and David Green (6-1, 285, r-Sr.) are both solid, experienced players with over 1,000 career snaps. Backups Deandre Jules (6-3, 310, r-Sr.) and Tyler Bentley (6-2, 300, r-Sr.) are a little bigger, but they also have a ton of experience. That’s four redshirt seniors at defensive tackle in the two deep for Pitt. The Hokies have a very similar level of experience at defensive tackle but have lacked the consistency.
Safety Donovan McMillon (6-2, 210, Jr.) is a transfer from Florida. The Hokies were heavily involved in his recruitment out of high school and were heavily involved again when he entered the transfer portal. Neither pursuit was successful, and he has arguably been Pitt’s best and most consistent defensive player so far in 2023. He’s only allowed two pass completions in four games and also leads the team with 32 tackles.
Shayne Simon (6-3, 235, r-Sr.) is a transfer from Notre Dame who played very well for Pitt last year. He’s also gotten off to a good start in 2023. With nearly 1,200 snaps under his belt in his career, he’s got plenty of experience. Fellow linebacker Solomon DeShields (6-3, 225, r-Jr.) is in his first year as a starter, but he’s in his fourth college season. He’s from the same hometown as Hokie basketball player Justyn Mutts (Millville, N.J.).
The only two players who I believe have been real liabilities on defense are cornerback AJ Woods (5-11, 195, r-Sr.) and nickel Phillip O’Brien Jr. (6-0, 185, Jr.). However, Woods is an experienced player who has played well in past seasons, so he’ll likely start playing better again soon. I’m not sure it matters anyway, as this Virginia Tech offense doesn’t seem like the type that can take advantage of any possible weaknesses in an opponent’s secondary.
The Special Teams Battle
Virginia Tech is No. 44 in F+ special teams while Pitt is No. 53, which seems like a pretty even battle on paper.
Placekicker Ben Sauls (5-10, 185, r-Jr.) is solid. Though he’s a missed a couple this year, he went 20-of-24 a season ago. 75% of his kickoffs have gone for touchbacks in 2023 as well, so it seems unlikely that the Hokies will be able to get a big return in that part of the game. On opponents’ three returns in 2023, they’ve averaged just 17 yards per return.
Caleb Junko (6-1, 210, r-So.) came on midway through last season and took the starting punter job, and his 85-yard punt against UCLA in the Sun Bowl set a Pitt and all-time collegiate bowl record. Pitt has had some trouble this year in punt coverage, however, and UNC scored on a 52-yard return last week. The Panthers have allowed nearly 10 yards per return on the other five returns as well. The Hokies need to give Tucker Holloway a chance on Saturday.
Punt returner MJ Devonshire (5-11, 190, r-Sr.) took a punt back for a touchdown last year. Though he hasn’t been as active so far in 2023, he’ll certainly be someone Tech will have to keep an eye on. Kickoff returner Kenny Johnson (6-1, 195, Fr.) had a touchdown return this past week against North Carolina, so the Panthers have two dangerous guys in the return game.
In a game that looks as if it’s going to be low-scoring, one big special teams play could decide everything. The Hokies must at least make sure special teams is a net-neutral this week.
Before we make our staff picks, what's your prediction?
Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh Final Thoughts
Pitt over the last three games: 21 points, 6 points, 24 points, average of 17 points VT over the last three games: 17 points, 16 points, 17 points, average of 16.67 pointsSounds thrilling, doesn’t it?
Both offenses look equally inept, though I might give Virginia Tech the ever-so-slight advantage there. Pitt definitely has the defensive advantage. They also have the more experienced head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator.
Narduzzi is 63-43 in his career as a head coach, with a 41-26 record in the ACC. Brent Pry is 4-11, with a 1-6 record in conference play. It’s been a tough year for Pitt so far, but Narduzzi has been there and done that, and so have his coordinators. Pitt started 1-2 in 2019 and was averaging 11.3 points per game, and then they finished 8-5. They started 2-3 in 2018 and went on to win the Coastal Division. This isn’t exactly new ground for them. However, each week seems to be new ground for the VT coaching staff.
Even an average old-school VT team wins this one 23-10 or something like that. But the Hokies are 4-11 dating back to the start of 2022, and they’ve lost nine straight games against Power 5 teams, which is the longest such streak in the country. I’m not picking Tech to win again until I actually see them do it. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think they’ll lose out, but I’ll continue to pick them to lose each week until I see something different.
Prediction: Pitt 23, Virginia Tech 17
Will Stewart’s Take: I’m getting a feeling of déjà vu. It feels like I’ve read the same game preview four weeks running now. The Hokies are facing an opponent who isn’t an offensive dynamo, and for Tech to have a good chance to win, they need to play solid defense, especially against the run, and score 24-30 points.
They have done neither in the last three games, averaging 16.7 points per game as their opponents have averaged 216 yards rushing per game.
Last week, despite not feeling great about the game, I took a leap of faith and picked Virginia Tech to win. I’m not going to do that again. I’m in the “Show me” zone now.
Could the Hokies win? Sure. Pitt is a deeply flawed team. But that was true the last three weeks as well. Let’s go with the Purdue and Marshall scores.
Will’s Prediction: Pitt 24, Virginia Tech 17
David Cunningham's Take: I actually feel better about Virginia Tech's chances of winning this one as opposed to the last two weeks, which is saying something. But that's due to a combination of this game being at home in Blacksburg and Pitt not being very good.
Could the Hokies have a lot of success in this game? Sure. They also should've had a lot of success against Purdue, Rutgers and Marshall, though. Time and time again, we see a new issue pop up for this team. Andy described it as Whac-A-Mole in his Five Thoughts after Marshall; I described it as trying to plug up a dam in multiple radio interviews this week. It seems like this team fixes one issue, like the run game offensively with Drones after games at Rutgers and Marshall, and then another issue pops up, such as choosing not to run the ball more. Some of these things are easily correctable, too. But it always feels like there's something plaguing this team.
The Hokies won the turnover battle last week and ran the ball. If you had told me after the Purdue loss that Tech would perform well in those areas two weeks later, I'm not sure I would've believed you after Grant Wells through two picks against the Boilermakers and the team ran for just 11 yards. I think you can see the signs that Virginia Tech is slowly playing better football in some areas. The problem is that you need to see it on the field across the board at every position, and that hasn't happened yet. Pitt wins in a close one.
David’s Prediction: Pitt 20, Virginia Tech 17
Andy Bitter's Take: This game is always a fistfight, and it feels like that's just the kind of matchup that's a problem for this year's Hokies. Pitt's not great offensively, with a beat-up offensive line and questionable quarterback, but the Panthers usually play with their pads in this game, and Tech's rush defense hasn't exactly been rock solid. When the Hokies have the ball, is that O-line going to be able to hold up against Pitt's aggressive defensive front? Drones better have his head on a swivel in the pocket and get the ball out quickly, and the receivers had better step up to make some catches on 50-50 balls, because Pitt will dare you to win that way.
This feels like a rock fight waiting to happen, which is the kind of game the Hokies can win, much more than if the opponent was capable of running up and down the field. So I won't rule out a Tech upset in this game, but I already took that shot last week against Marshall, so I'm not going down that road again. Both teams ugly it up in this one, with Pitt coming out on top.
Andy’s Prediction: Pitt 19, Virginia Tech 16
Last Game’s Virginia Tech-Marshall Prediction Poll Results
Game Result: Marshall 24, Virginia Tech 17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ |  |
Hokies 36, ODU 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 |  |
Purdue 24, Hokies 17 | |
| Rutgers Wins by 1-10 | |
Rutgers 35, Hokies 16 | |
| Marshall Wins by 1-10 | |
Marshall 24, Hokies 17 | |
| Pittsburgh Wins by 1-10 | |
Hokies 38, Pittsburgh 21 | |
| FSU Wins by 11+ | |
FSU 39, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 30, Deacs 13 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 38, Orange 10 | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ | |
Cardinals 34, Hokies 3 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 48, Eagles 22 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Wolfpack 35, Hokies 28 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Hokies 55, Hoos 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 41, Green Wave 20 | |