After a 77-70 loss in Atlanta at the hands of Georgia Tech on Wednesday, Virginia Tech (15-11, 5-10 ACC) returns to Cassell Coliseum to host league-leaders Pitt (19-7, 12-3 ACC) on Saturday. Wes Durham and Dan Bonner have the call between the Hokies and Panthers at 5 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
In many ways, Tech burst its NCAA tournament bubble in the loss to the Yellow Jackets. As of Friday, the program is No. 68 in both the NET rankings and Ken Pomeroy's ratings, and it's 5-8 between Quadrants 1 and 2.
With Pitt and Miami venturing to Blacksburg and a road test in Durham at Duke, the Hokies have three quality opportunities for good wins. But the pickings are slim, and it doesn't help that the ACC is down. KenPom lists the ACC as the seventh-best conference behind the Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Pac-12 and Mountain West. It's the accordion effect - the league is closer together, but the teams at the top (Virginia, Miami, Pitt) aren't close to the best teams from conferences like the Big 12, who has four schools in the top 15.
At this point, winning the ACC tournament in Greensboro is likely Virginia Tech's only chance at making the Big Dance, and the magic from 2022 will be difficult to replicate.
As far as the Panthers are concerned, Jeff Capel has done a tremendous job turning a program around that was horrendous over the past few years. In his first four years in Pittsburgh, he never finished above .500. Yet, if the 2022-23 season ended before Saturday, his group would earn a share of the ACC regular season title and be the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
Pitt is good on both ends of the floor, and as Mike Young described on Monday, it's a group that projects a similar vibe to the Ben Howland and Jamie Dixon Pitt teams in the 2000s.
"They remind me of the old Pitt teams – big and strong and tough, and obviously a Pitt team that really shoots it," Young said. "I think Jeff Capel has just done a tremendous job in putting this team together. They’re connected, they’re hard-nosed and, needless to say, having a really good year."
Virginia Tech is 11-8 all-time vs. Pitt and 3-1 under Mike Young. In two meetings in 2021-22, the Hokies won by five and 27, respectively. They've won seven of the last eight, eight of the last 10 and are 7-1 all-time in Blacksburg. The lone loss: Feb. 26, 2003, 75-62.
The Panthers are exceptional this season. Their results are even more impressive considering they're without All-ACC performer John Hugley and top recruit Dior Johnson. But other players have stepped up.
Pitt is good on both ends of the floor. It's a long and lengthy bunch with a lot of athleticism. Here are some of the team's ratings:
Offense:
Adj. efficiency: 112.5 - 48th (110.0 - 3rd in ACC)
Effective FG%: 52.9% - 64th (53.2% - 3rd)
3-point percentage: 36.2% - 67th (36.8% - 4th)
2-point percentage: 51.9% - 106th (51.4% - 6th)
Free throw percentage: 76.3% - 30th (80.2% - 2nd)
Steal percentage: 8.1% - 55th (7.1% - 4th)
Defense:
Adj. efficiency: 99.4 - 74th (100.3 - 3rd in ACC)
Effective FG%: 46.8% - 34th (47.0% - 2nd)
3-point percentage: 31.6% - 55th (32.9% - 5th)
2-point percentage: 46.4% - 40th (45.4% - 2nd)
Free throw percentage: 69.3% - 80th (73.5% - 3rd)
Block percentage: 12.5% - 38th (13.4% - 2nd)
Non-steal turnover percentage: 9.8 - 101st (10.4% - 1st)
It's a dangerous bunch that shoots the ball well from behind the arc. Virginia Tech hasn't exactly defended that aspect well lately either. In the last three games against Boston College, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, opponents were 36-of-76 (47.6%). The Yellow Jackets and Eagles are second- and third-worst in the conference in 3-point shooting, yet they were 23-of-46 (50%). Pitt's better in that area, which could pose a ton of problems.
Capel's rotation features three graduate students, one senior, one junior, two sophomores and two freshmen. Here’s the breakdown according to points per game:
Blake Hinson (6-7, 235, Jr.): 15.9 points per game
Jamarius Burton (6-4, 200, Gr.): 15.8
Greg Elliott (6-3, 180, Gr.): 11.0
Nelly Cummings (6-0, 185, Gr.): 10.5
Nike Sibande (6-4, 185, r-Sr.): 7.8
Federiko Federiko (6-11, 220 So.): 6.1
Jorge Diaz Graham (6-11, 190, Fr.): 3.0
Guillermo Diaz Graham (7-0, 205, Fr.): 2.7
Nate Santos (6-7, 210, So.): 1.8
It's a roster filled with flavor. Yes, that is Federiko's real name and is not a typo. He's from Helsinki, Finland. And yes, the Diaz Grahams are twins, originally from the Canary Islands in Spain. Pitt is a great example of what a roster can look like when the transfer portal is used correctly. The program was not the first stop for Hinson (Ole Miss, Iowa State), Burton (Wichita State, Texas Tech), Elliott (Marquette), Cummings (Colgate) or Sibande (Miami of Ohio). Federiko transferred from Northern Oklahoma, too.
It's a gritty bunch. Most of the players can create their own shot, especially Hinson, Burton, Elliott and Cummings. Sibande has that ability as well.
Federiko, a solid rim protector, is only a threat on the interior. But he's versatile, which was obvious when he gave North Carolina's Armando Bacot fits in early February. He's exceptional in the pick-and-roll, something Virginia Tech has struggled to defend.
Pitt, winners of its last six, has something solid brewing at the moment. The Hokies have a chance to spoil their ACC regular season title hopes on Saturday, but it won't be easy by any stretch. Closing out on perimeter shooters and picking and choosing when to go over or under screens is key.
Cummings scored 21 points and made the Tar Heels pay when they didn't stay in front of him or went under screens. Sean Pedulla's defensive effort is important against the Panthers, and Hunter Cattoor will have a blast with Burton. Justyn Mutts will likely draw the matchup of Hinson, leaving Elliott for MJ Collins. How Tech defends Federiko, whether it be with Grant Basile, Lynn Kidd or Mylyjael Poteat, will be interesting to watch.
Against a team that is strong in transition, controlling the tempo and taking care of the ball is important. The Hokies were impressive in their last two games at scoring in the paint, posting 42 and 44 points against the Irish and Yellow Jackets, respectively. But replicating that and finding a rhythm against Federiko, who blocks nine percent of opponents' shots, will be challenging.