Virginia Tech men's basketball (11-2, 1-1 ACC) travels to Winston-Salem to face Wake Forest (9-4, 1-1 ACC) on Saturday. It's a 12 p.m. game on New Year's Eve on RSN.
Categorizing the Hokies as "desperate" might be a little much, but they dropped out of the top 25 after a bad loss in overtime at Boston College on Dec. 21. As usual, Tech was lifeless in Conte Forum, committing a season-high 15 turnovers and shooting 5-of-20 (25%) from behind the arc. The bench contributed just one point, too.
After getting a chance to visit their families for the holidays, the Hokies are back to the grind. Between now and the ACC Tournament on March 7, they'll play two games each week all but once (Jan. 8-14). Here's the schedule through the end of January:
Sat., Dec. 31: at Wake Forest (Q2)
Wed., Jan. 4: vs. Clemson (Q3)
Sat., Jan. 7: vs. NC State (Q2)
Wed., Jan. 11: at Syracuse (Q3)
Wed., Jan. 18: at Virginia (Q1)
Sat., Jan. 21: at Clemson (Q2)
Mon., Jan. 23: vs. Duke (Q1)
Sat., Jan. 28: vs. Syracuse (Q3)
Tues., Jan. 31: at Miami (Q1)
That's a big stretch of games for Virginia Tech. Nine contests: three Q1, three Q2 and three Q3. The two weeks from Jan. 18 to Feb. 1 are crucial.
Veteran guard Hunter Cattoor, who took a hard fall on his left arm during Tech's loss at BC, is "questionable" and "game-to-game," per Virginia Tech. There's some good news on the injury front, though: freshman guard Rodney Rice could make his collegiate debut at Wake Forest. According to a school spokesperson, Rice is a "game-time decision" for Saturday. It shouldn't come as a surprise since Mike Young originally set Rice's return date for Dec. 31 at Wake Forest.
Through the first 13 games, the Hokies relied on a backcourt rotation of Sean Pedulla, Darius Maddox, Cattoor and MJ Collins. If Cattoor were unavailable, it would turn into a trio of Pedulla, Maddox and Collins, a true freshman. The emergence of Rice could be huge and create a more favorable minute distribution amongst the guards.
Wake Forest
In early November, Tech Sideline split the conference in half and published two previews of the teams around the ACC. Here’s the synopsis for Wake Forest:"In 2021-22, Wake Forest finished fifth, had the ACC Coach of the Year (Steve Forbes) and the ACC Player of the Year (Alondes Williams). Yet, the Demon Deacons didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. They were the league’s surprise team last year, but the roster looks much different now. Williams is gone, along with Jake LaRavia, Dallas Walton and Isaiah Mucius. The lone returnee is Daivien Williamson. Forbes replenished the roster, however, adding Florida’s Tyree Appleby, Marist’s Jao Ituka, Delaware’s Andrew Carr and Kansas State’s Davion Bradford. Damari Monsanto should provide some depth as well. The lone meeting this year falls on New Year’s Eve, and the Hokies will likely want revenge from last season’s 80-61 thumping."The Demon Deacons are 9-4 with losses to Loyola Marymount (OT) in Jamaica, Clemson on the road, LSU in Atlanta and Rutgers on the road. They're 7-0 at home and 2-4 everywhere else. They've got two Quadrant 1 wins, though: at Wisconsin and vs. Duke. Their Q1 record is the same as Virginia Tech's: 2-1.
Wake Forest doesn't do anything crazy in any facet of the game. It ranks 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and 106th on the defensive side. It shoots the ball well (54%), doesn't allow offensive rebounds and gets to the free throw line often. On top of that, WF also plays faster than every team Virginia Tech has faced this season except Lehigh and College of Charleston.
The Cougars are No. 53 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The Demon Deacons are No. 95. In fact, they're one of only three ACC teams in the top 100 in that metric behind NC State (61) and Florida State (71).
On defense, Wake Forest doesn't force turnovers like crazy. Opponents have a turnover rate of 19.5%. Then again, College of Charleston didn't either (18.7%), and Tech still gave the ball away 13 times, tied for the third-most all season.
What haven't the Hokies done well lately? Take care of the rock. While they rank seventh in D-I in turnover percentage at 14.7%, they've had 38 turnovers on 198 possessions in their last three contests (19.2%). Tech would sit around No. 190 in KenPom in turnover percentage based on that three-game sample size. For comparison, Tech had double-digit turnovers four times (Delaware St., College of Charleston, Minnesota, North Carolina) in its first 10 opportunities.
Here's a breakdown of Tech's 38 turnovers in its last three outings. Note that walk-on Michael Ward had one turnover vs. Grambling State.
Justyn Mutts: 11
Sean Pedulla: 8
Lynn Kidd: 4
Hunter Cattoor: 3
MJ Collins: 3
Darius Maddox: 3
Mylyjael Poteat: 3
Grant Basile: 2
Taking care of the ball will be even more of a priority than usual for Virginia Tech on Saturday at Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons' Roster
Nine different players have started a game for Wake Forest this year; four are averaging double-digit scoring. Here's what the rotation looks like according to points per game:
Tyree Appleby (6-0, 175, Gr.): 18.0 ppg
Cameron Hildreth (6-4, 195, So.): 12.3
Damari Monsanto (6-6, 225, r-Jr.): 10.6
Andrew Carr (6-10, 220, Jr.): 10.1
Daivien Williamson (6-0, 180, Gr.): 9.3
Matthew Marsh (7-1, 250, So.): 7.1
Bobi Klintman (6-10, 225, Fr.): 4.5
Davion Bradford (7-0, 270, Jr.): 3.1
Zach Keller (6-10, 228, Fr.): 2.5
Appleby and Carr have started every game while Hildreth's started nine. Monsanto, Williamson, Marsh and Keller each started two of the last five games, too.
Wake Forest shot better than 49% in five of its seven home games this season. It's a very turnover-prone team, though, that has 10-plus giveaways in all 13 games this season. Opponents have shot well from the floor against the Demon Deacons as well, but not from deep. Their last opponent to shoot 40% or better from downtown was Clemson on Dec. 2 (40.9%).
As far as rebounding is concerned, they're pretty solid. Only Hildreth and Carr average more than five boards per game, but Wake Forest rebounds by committee. Eight different players average two rebounds per game or better, and WF has won the battle on the glass in 10 of its 13 games. On the flip side, VT's only had a positive margin six times.
Wake Forest ran Virginia Tech out of Cassell Coliseum last year, 80-61. In the process, the Demon Deacons shot 63% - the second-highest mark by an opponent to that point in the Mike Young era. They also held the Hokies to 41% from the field, including 29.6% (8-of-27) from 3-point range. Tech played catch-up all night and couldn't do anything defensively. There were just three instances on that December evening where VT scored, got a stop and scored again.
On Saturday in Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum, a place where Virginia Tech has won four in a row, the Hokies have to take care of the basketball and buckle down defensively. They were too sloppy in the loss at Boston College and never seemed to get into their sets on offense. Similarly, that's what doomed them at College of Charleston. Though Tech might not have Cattoor (or Rice), this is a game it's very capable of winning if it keeps its composure.