- Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Saturday, November 5, 12:30, RSN (affiliates list)
- Betting Line: Virginia Tech -3
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
Before the season, I think most of us banked on this one being a sure win. Now, the Hokies have lost five games in a row. Georgia Tech has improved since firing head coach Geoff Collins, who turned the keys over to interim Brent Key, a GT grad.
Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry indicated that the Yellow Jackets have played better football under Key because they aren’t making as many mistakes. However, an injury to starting quarterback Jeff Sims has hurt their progress as a team. After upsetting Pitt and Duke in his first two games, Key lost his quarterback against UVA, and later lost the game, 16-9. That was followed up by a 41-16 loss to Florida State.
Still, this is a more formidable Georgia Tech team than they appeared to be at the beginning of September.
The Georgia Tech Quarterback Situation
Jeff Sims (6-4, 219, So.) was the starter, but he was injured in the UVA game and was still out for the Florida State game this past weekend. Sims has completed 58.5% of his passes for 1,115 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions on the year, but he was starting to play better after Geoff Collins got fired. For example, in the Yellow Jackets’ upset win over Duke, here were his numbers…Passing: 23-of-34 (67.6%) for 227 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
Rushing: 17 carries for 95 yards, 5.6 ypc
Brent Key said Sims was day-to-day heading into the Florida State game, but he didn’t play. On Tuesday, Key said that Sims returned to practice.
"All of them (the quarterbacks) practiced today," Key said, according to Georgia Tech's Sports Illustrated site. "Jeff was out there practicing, full go. Every team period, 7-on-7's, good to go. Same with Zach, good to go. We are preparing all of those guys to be able to go and play in the game, really no different than any week and if something is to occur between now and then, one of the two, the other one would have to play. But right now, we are full board with Jeff being the quarterback."
Maybe there's some coach speak in there to throw off Virginia Tech's preparation. Maybe not. Maybe Sims will play but won't be 100%, which would limit his running ability. Or maybe he's 100% and ready to go off on the Hokies. We won't know until Saturday.
When Sims went down against UVA, the Jackets turned to Akron transfer Zach Gibson (6-3, 211, r-So.) and it was a complete disaster. Here were his numbers against the Hoos…
Passing: 10-of-25 (40%) for 99 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 7 sacks
Rushing: 12 carries, -25 yards
Gibson averaged just under four yards per passing attempt and the Jackets lost 16-9.
He got the start again against Florida State but lasted just six snaps. He was 2-of-3 for zero yards and took a sack, and Key and his coaching staff quickly pulled the plug. They replaced him with true freshman Zach Pyron (6-3, 213, Fr.), who was an upgrade against the ‘Noles…
Passing: 18-of-28, 198 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks
Rushing: 10 carries, -5 yards, 1 TD
Florida State won the game 41-16, and some of Pyron’s numbers came after the game was decided and FSU put in their backups. Still, that’s not a bad performance by a third-string true freshman in his first significant action.
“A third-string true freshman in his first significant action.”
Gulp. Yeah, sounds like NC State's MJ Morris, doesn’t it? Oh, and just to make you feel better, I’d like to point out that Chris Weinke is Georgia Tech’s quarterbacks coach.
Pyron picked Georgia Tech over Baylor, Arkansas, Kansas State and a few others (nobody ever said Geoff Collins couldn’t recruit). He played at Pinson Valley in Alabama with current Virginia Tech running back Kenji Christian.
If Sims can’t go on Saturday, it seems likely that Pyron will be the guy. It’s unlikely that the Yellow Jackets will put up big numbers no matter who is playing quarterback, but can the Hokies score?
The Georgia Tech Skill Position Talent
With tailback Jahmyr Gibbs transferring to Alabama, the Yellow Jackets hit the transfer portal to sign a couple of running backs to replace him. That strategy has been hit or miss.Dylan McDuffie (6-0, 217, r-Jr.) transferred to Georgia Tech after running for just over 1,000 yards at Buffalo last season. However, his career in Atlanta has been disappointing. Though he’s appeared in all eight games, he has just 22 carries for 45 yards and one touchdown on the season. Sometimes the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
Hassan Hall (6-0, 196, Sr.) left Louisville to play for the Yellow Jackets. He rushed for 1,299 yards over the course of four seasons with the Cardinals. He’s having a solid year for Georgia Tech, combining with Dontae Smith (5-11, 203, r-Jr.) to form a solid running back duo…
Hall: 83 carries, 417 yards, 5.0 ypc, 0 TD
Smith: 51 carries, 258 yards, 5.1 ypc, 3 TDs
Hall is also Georgia Tech’s second-leading receiver, so he’s helping the team in two phases. This is a solid duo, though the running game is much better with Sims behind center and 100%.
The Yellow Jackets’ top receiver is Nate McCollum (5-11, 184, So.). He’s got 39 catches for 386 yards (9.9 avg) and one touchdown on the season. As noted above, running back Hall is their second-leading receiver in terms of catches, so this Georgia Tech team doesn’t feature many threats in the passing game. Even McCollum averages just under 10 yards per reception.
However, there is plenty of size to deal with…
EJ Jenkins (6-7, 243, r-Sr.): 14 catches, 226 yards, 16.1 avg, 3 TDs
Malachi Carter (6-3, 192, Sr.): 14 catches, 220 yards, 15.7 avg, 1 TD
Jenkins played for South Carolina last season. He originally played for St. Francis with Jason Brown, and also played with Brown at Chancellor High School in Fredericksburg. Despite his size, he never plays tight end, spending nearly all his time as an outside receiver. He can be a matchup problem because of his size, and he’s also been a dominant run blocker.
The Georgia Tech Offensive Line
This is where Georgia Tech has struggled the most this season. Everyone knew it would take awhile for the Yellow Jacket offensive line to transition away from the Paul Johnson scheme into a regular offensive system. It requires a completely different type of personnel, and it’s been a very difficult process for Georgia Tech.Not a single Jacket offensive lineman has graded out at the PFF baseline of 60 this season. Here is the starting lineup with the respective grades…
LT Corey Robinson II (6-5, 294, r-Fr.): 51.5
LG Pierce Quick (6-5, 291, r-So.): 56.2
C Weston Franklin (6-4, 316, So.): 47.3
RG Joe Fusile (6-6, 316, r-Fr.): 57.5
RT Jordan Williams (6-6, 312, So.): 54.6
All have had major pass protection issues, and they aren’t much better at run blocking.
As a team, Georgia Tech’s pass blocking grade on PFF is a 38.3, which ranks No. 123 out of 131 Power 5 teams. Only UVA (No. 127) ranks worse in the ACC.
This is a battle up front that the Virginia Tech defense should win.
The Georgia Tech Defense
Though it got eaten alive by Florida State last week, this Georgia Tech defense is one of the better ones the Hokies have faced this season. It ranks No. 48 nationally in FEI defense. Here’s how that compares to Virginia Tech’s previous opponents…ODU: No. 82
BC: No. 78
WVU: No. 111
UNC: No. 114
Pitt: No. 29
Miami: No. 54
NCSU: No. 18
It's not as good as the NC State or Pitt defenses, but it’s a lot better than the defenses the Hokies faced (and could barely score against) for the first month of the season.
The Yellow Jackets will give up some yards, but they are generally put in poor positions by their offense. What stands out is their ability to get penetration and make tackles for loss…
TFL: 6.75 per game, No. 24 nationally*
*Coincidentally, the Hokies also average 6.75 tackles for loss per game. Considering the state of both offensive lines, on paper, we could see huge numbers of tackles for loss on Saturday.
Linebacker Ayinde Eley (6-3, 233, r-Sr.) leads the way. He’s tops on the team in tackles with 82, and he also leads the team in TFLs (9.5) while being second in sacks (3.5). Moreover, he's forced three fumbles, recovered two more, and broken up three passes, so he’s all over the field for the Yellow Jackets. He had a bad season last year after transferring from Maryland, but he’s been one of the most improved linebackers in the country in 2022.
Defensive end Keion White (6-5, 286, r-Sr.) has 7.5 tackles for loss and a team-high four sacks this season. He’s a big end for an even-front defense. White is from North Carolina, and he originally signed with Old Dominion out of high school, picking the Monarchs over offers from four FCS programs. He figured out after one season that he was too good for ODU and left for the ACC. He had an excellent game for ODU against the Hokies in Lane Stadium in 2019, with eight tackles, two TFLs, half a sack, and a fumble recovery.
Safety LaMiles Brooks (6-2, 192, So.) has arguably been the Jackets’ most consistent player this season. You may remember him as “Miles Brooks” as a recruit. He went to the same high school as Isaiah Ford and Chamarri Conner, and the Hokies were his other finalist, but he chose Georgia Tech. He’s the highest-grading safety in the ACC in 2022 in his first season as a starter, and he’s been particularly dominant in coverage.
The Jackets also have a pair of good cornerbacks in Zamari Walton (6-3, 185, r-Jr.) and Myles Sims (6-3, 187, r-Jr.). They are both long cornerbacks who certainly will give Virginia Tech’s wide receivers plenty of trouble. Nickelback KJ Wallace (5-11, 184, r-So.) has been the weak link of the defense, and he’s someone the Hokies could potentially isolate.
Overall, I see a number of quality defensive players on this Georgia Tech team. Nobody ever claimed that Geoff Collins couldn’t recruit, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. This unit would probably have better numbers if it got a little more help from the offense. The Yellow Jacket defense has been on the field for 613 plays this season. Only 16 FBS defenses have been on the field for more snaps, and 10 of those 16 teams have played one more game than Georgia Tech.
Still, this is a defense that can be had…Florida State didn’t punt at all against them last week. That being said, the ‘Noles are No. 19 nationally in FEI offense, while the Hokies languish at No. 107.
Georgia Tech Special Teams
Virginia Tech must respect the Yellow Jackets in the return game. Nate McCollum is averaging 12.8 yards per punt return, though he’s only managed to return six of them this season. Hassan Hall is averaging 25 yards per kickoff return with a long of 41 yards. The Hokies need to get back to kicking the ball into the endzone for some touchbacks.We could also see the Hokies go after a punt this week. Georgia Tech has allowed four punts to be blocked this season (though two of them came against Clemson), which sounds bad, though things have improved recently. Two punts have been returned for touchdowns, so this is an area where the Hokies should have an advantage this week. Virginia Tech hasn’t been able to win the field position battle this season but is facing a team that hasn’t exactly been strong on special teams in its own right. This is a battle the Hokies need to win.
Jude Kelly began the season as Georgia Tech’s placekicker, but he was just 2-of-6. He has since given way to Gavin Stewart, who is a perfect 9-of-9, though his longest is only from 40 yards, so he hasn’t really been tested from long range.
Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech Final Thoughts
“I told the guys in the locker room: I’m just so proud of them. They’re improving all the time. They fight, they battle, the culture’s right, they’re going in the right direction. It just didn’t equal a win tonight. And we’ve got to make sure we do a better job as coaches and players. It’s the little things.” – Brent Pry, post-NC State.
Pry knows his guys have bought into everything he’s sold them. Their work ethic is strong, and outside of some guys who were buried on the depth chart, nobody has hit the transfer portal because they didn’t adjust to the demands of a new coaching staff. He’s appreciative of that, because many times a coaching transition doesn’t go quite that smoothly. He really wants to see his guys get a win because of their hard work and their good attitude.
They also need to get a win for other reasons. They are all bought in to Pry’s message now. But what if they go 2-10? It’s a lot easier to be bought in to the “here’s what we need from you all to win football games” message at the beginning of a coach’s tenure, but it can be difficult to stay the course if you don’t win. It’s human nature to think, “Okay, if I keep doing everything they ask, am I really going to win football games? Because if this year was any indication, it sure doesn’t seem like it.”
The Hokies badly need a win to make sure the players stay mentally engaged and continue to buy in.
There’s also the simple fact that they need to win just for winning’s sake. The Hokies really need to beat Georgia Tech. If we don't, then we're staring down the barrel of a 2-10 gun. As a comparison, remember how bad Mike London’s tenure was at UVA? Well, he only won fewer than four games once (2-10 in 2013) in six years. Last year, every ACC team won at least three games.
Point being, it's really hard to win fewer than three games - even for a guy like London - but the Hokies run the risk of doing so if they lose on Saturday. Georgia Tech is the most winnable game remaining on the schedule I think (you could also say UVA), and for good reason. Still, they’ve managed to win more football games this year than the Hokies – three to two – and probably would have a fourth win if starting quarterback Jeff Sims didn’t get hurt against UVA. This is probably a pretty even matchup with both teams at full strength. But will both teams be at full strength?
We know Malachi Thomas isn’t going to play. He was in a boot with crutches in class this week. What about Sims? Will he play, and if so, is he 100%? I have no idea as of Tuesday night.
I've been saying that I'm not going to pick the Hokies to win again until they actually do. I think they should win this game, but at the same time, they seem to find different ways to lose each week, and they haven't scored in six of their last eight quarters. Flip a coin.
Chris's Prediction: Georgia Tech 20, Virginia Tech 17
Will Stewart’s Take: It’s hard to talk about or predict this one, because we don’t know if Jeff Sims is going to play, and if so, how effective he is going to be.
GT was smart to get away from Gibson at QB. Chris mentioned that he was sacked seven times against Virginia, but what he didn’t mention is that a lot of those came from Gibson holding the ball too long and absorbing a sack he shouldn’t have taken. I watched a fair amount of that game, and Gibson was horrendous in all aspects.
Point being, I liked VT’s chances if they faced a Yellow Jackets team with Gibson at QB. Now, I don’t know.
Even though Georgia Tech isn’t very good, I’m struggling to come up with ways that Virginia Tech is going to win. Per David Cunningham’s report yesterday, Malachi Thomas is out again, and though Keshawn King is probable, we don’t know how long he’s going to last if he plays. Chance Black averages 2.7 yards per carry, Bryce Duke 2.6. Grant Wells is Virginia Tech’s leading rusher in terms of positive yards gained (276 for Wells to 264 for King), but it’s not wise to rely on the 208-pound QB in the running game.
So how is Virginia Tech going to run the football effectively? The Hokies are No. 117 in the nation out of 131 FBS teams in rushing yards per game. That trickles down to the passing game, which often faces second and long and third and long.
I think the Hokie defense can be solid, but they’re affected by an offense that has been anemic and special teams that lose the so-called “hidden yardage” battle (it’s not all that hidden, we see it clearly) nearly every game, with poor punting (No. 93 in the country), a lack of punt returns (No. 128 in yards/return) and poor decisions in the kickoff return game. The defense doesn’t help itself by forcing turnovers, residing dead last (tied for No. 129 with two other teams) with just five TOs forced on the year.
Lastly, Virginia Tech is No. 126 in penalties per game. There are a lot of things this team does poorly, across all aspects of the game. Looking at the 24-statistic team summary on stats.ncaa.org reveals that Virginia Tech ranks outside the top 100 in 13 of 24 team stats, and inside the top 40 in just two: rush defense (No. 38) and 3rd down defense (No. 26, but that is cancelled out in part by a No. 117 ranking in 4th down defense).
I was going to pick Virginia Tech to win, but I just can’t, until they start proving it to me.
Will’s Prediction: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 17
David Cunningham's Take: For starters, Virginia Tech is a three-point favorite as of Tuesday night. Since 1987, the Hokies have been favored by three points over the Yellow Jackets three times:
Oct. 17, 2009 in Atlanta: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 23
Nov. 11, 2017 in Atlanta: Georgia Tech 28, Virginia Tech 22
Oct. 25, 2018 in Blacksburg: Georgia Tech 49, Virginia Tech 28
So, the Yellow Jackets have won outright each time. What's more, Virginia Tech is 4-9 ATS in the 13 times it's been favored against Georgia Tech since 1987. Straight up, though, VT is 7-6. The Hokies have covered two straight games this year and two in a row in the series. Hmm.
We've seen Virginia Tech show signs of life here and there, all in the second half. The fourth quarter against Miami was great; the third quarter at NC State was even better. Can the Hokies get going early? They haven't drawn first blood since North Carolina on Oct. 1.
This one is essentially a flip of the coin, and it quite honestly might come down to whether Keshawn King can go. Malachi Thomas likely won't play, but if King is an option, that gives Tech a solid running back. Hmmmmm... What kind of Virginia Tech team are we going to see?
My heart tells me to pick the Hokies because they're due, they're at home and Georgia Tech isn't good. But my gut tells me to pick the Yellow Jackets because Virginia Tech is that poor. Ugh. I'm glad it's on RSN so folks around the country don't even have an option to watch this ugly game.
David's Prediction: Georgia Tech 23, Virginia Tech 21
Last Game's Virginia Tech-NC State Prediction Poll Results
Game Result: NC State 22, Virginia Tech 21 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ |  |
ODU 20, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 |  |
Hokies 27, BC 10 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 27, Wofford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
WVU 33, Hokies 10 | |
| UNC Wins by 11+ | |
UNC 41, Hokies 10 | |
| Pittsburgh Wins by 11+ | |
Pittsburgh 45, Hokies 29 | |
| Hurricanes Win by 11+ | |
Miami 20, Hokies 14 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ | |
NC State 22, Hokies 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
GT 28, Hokies 27 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 11+ | |
Duke 24, Hokies 7 | |
| Flames Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 23, Flames 22 | |
| Virginia Wins by 11+ | |
Hokies 29, Virginia 24 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Maryland 54, Hokies 10 | |