- Virginia Tech vs. Miami: Thursday, Saturday, October 15, 12:30pm, RSN (Affiliates List)
- Betting Line: Miami -7
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
- Gameday information: Click here
This past weekend, Miami picked off UNC’s Drake Maye twice while its own quarterback – Tyler Van Dyke – threw for 496 yards and three touchdowns and completed 73.7% of his passes. Somehow the Hurricanes still managed to lose.
Different year, different coach, same Hurricanes. Miami is underachieving again this year, and this time it’s new head coach Mario Cristobal who is in the crosshairs. This is a program that perennially doesn’t seem to play up to its potential, and the same could be said for the 2022 version.
Things started out well enough with wins over Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss. Then the ‘Canes lost to Texas A&M, 17-9, and looked bad offensively. In their next game, they were inexplicably beaten 45-31 at home by a Middle Tennessee team that is 3-3 on the season and 0-2 in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee has given up 45 and 41 points in its last two games, yet it held Miami to 31 and got Van Dyke benched in the process.
Miami responded by playing better against UNC this past weekend, but as noted above, despite a dominant game by Van Dyke and picking off Maye twice, they still managed to lose. This is an athletically gifted football team, but nobody knows how they are going to play on a week-to-week basis, and they haven’t learned how to win when facing adversity.
This weekend they’ll face a Virginia Tech team that is struggling in its own right, and which also hasn’t learned how to win. Something will have to give.
Miami Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke
Tyler Van Dyke (6-4, 224, r-So.) had a big season for the ‘Canes last year as a redshirt freshman. He completed 62.3% of his passes for 2,931 yards with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions despite only playing in 10 games. He averaged an incredible 9.0 yards per attempt last season and was one of the best freshman quarterbacks in the country.Fast forward to this season and Van Dyke struggled against Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee to the point where he was actually pulled from the latter game. Here are his numbers from those two contests…
Texas A&M: 21-of-41 (51.2%), 217 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Middle TN: 16-of-32 (50%), 138 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Yikes. I watched some of the Texas A&M game, and I wasn’t impressed with Miami’s receivers. In fact, the game ended with a drop by a wide open Hurricane wideout. Still, those numbers aren’t good when you consider the type of season Van Dyke had in 2021.
Then he ran into the UNC defense and magically improved. 73.7% for 493 yards is a pretty good day at the office, even against a bad defense.
We know what Van Dyke is capable of, but we also know that he’s struggled at times this season. Which Van Dyke will show up in Lane Stadium this Saturday? If the bad Van Dyke shows up, perhaps Jake Garcia (6-3, 194, r-Fr.) will be called upon again by Mario Cristobal.
The Miami Running Game
Here’s now the Hurricanes have done running the football in each of their five games…
Bethune-Cookman: 42 carries, 305 yards, 7.3 ypc
Southern Miss: 49 carries, 174 yards, 3.6 ypc
Texas A&M: 36 carries, 175 yards, 4.9 ypc
Middle Tennessee: 38 carries, 60 yards, 1.6 ypc
UNC: 24 carries, 41 yards, 1.8 ypc
Miami ran the football successfully in their first two games, though you should probably take FCS Bethune-Cookman with a grain of salt. Still, they had some success on the ground even against Texas A&M. They weren’t dominant against Southern Miss, but it was a solid, grinding performance. But then Middle Tennessee happened, and the ‘Canes managed just 1.6 yards per carry. Then UNC happened, and they averaged 1.8 yards per carry.
UNC ranks No. 105 in the country in rushing defense vs. FBS teams, and that’s even after shutting down Tech and Miami, which shows how bad they were against everyone else. Middle Tennessee is a mediocre No. 72 in the same rankings. Yet Miami struggled on the ground against both of those teams. Perhaps they aren’t as good as the numbers indicate against Texas A&M…after all, the Aggies are No. 118 in rush defense against FBS teams. Whatever anybody feels about Van Dyke’s performances this season, running the football is a big issue for the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes have played three different running backs so far this season…
Henry Parrish Jr. (5-10, 190, r-So.): 78 carries, 378 yards, 4.8 ypc, 4 TDs
Thad Franklin Jr. (6-0, 240, So.): 40 carries, 170 yards, 4.3 ypc, 5 TDs
Jaylan Knighton (5-10, 190, r-So.): 26 carries, 110 yards, 4.2 ypc, 0 TDs
All three got carries against North Carolina last week, though the ‘Canes didn’t try to run it all that much once they fell behind 14-0. Considering the Hokies gave up 320 rushing yards to one player last week, I would expect the Miami offense to try and be balanced this week. They need to get back to running the football, and if you are a Miami player or a Miami coach, you’d have to be looking at the Virginia Tech defense as a great opportunity to make improvements.
The Miami Receivers
As noted earlier, the Miami receivers have had some issues with their hands at times. As a team, they are credited with 12 drops on the season, and the only teams in the ACC who have more are Virginia Tech (14), NC State (16) and UVA (24!!!).The Hurricanes will spread it out, with six players recording between 12 and 20 catches this season. Here are their top three targets in terms of catches…
TE Will Mallory (6-5, 245, r-Sr.): 20 catches, 242 yards, 12.1 avg
WR Brashard Smith (5-10, 194, So.): 17 catches, 165 yards, 9.7 avg
WR Frank Ladson Jr. (6-3, 205, r-Jr.): 16 catches, 165 yards, 10.3 avg
Mallory is a solid, veteran tight end. Ladson was a top 50 recruit coming out of high school who disappointed at Clemson and was part of their passing game regression last season. He’s now transferred to Miami, where he’s again struggling to make plays.
In 2022, Miami ranks No. 77 nationally in passing plays of 20+ yards. In 2021, they ranked No. 15 nationally in that statistic, so clearly their playmaking ability has taken a step back. To put it into perspective, most people would assume that the Hurricanes are a much better playmaking team than the Hokies, but in reality they have just one more completion of 20+ yards than Tech does this season (with the caveat that Miami has played one less game).
The Miami passing game just isn’t operating at the same level as it did last year, with the exception of the UNC game. Combine that with a running game that has suddenly stopped being productive in their last two games, and we've seen the offense stagnate a bit.
That said, you know the Hurricanes are still dangerous. Nine different players caught a pass against UNC, and three of them caught at least seven passes. Tight end Will Mallory had eight catches for 115 yards, and the rest was spread out. Five other receivers had at least 50 yards receiving.
The Miami Offensive Line
Miami doesn’t appear to have much depth up front, with all five starters playing the majority of the snaps unless injured. Backup tackle Zion Nelson (6-5, 314, r-Jr.) hasn’t played since the Texas A&M game due to injury, and two starters – center Jakai Clark (6-3, 305, r-Jr.) and right guard Justice Oluwaseun (6-3, 325, r-Sr.) – both had to come out of the game on back-to-back plays.
Nelson was a “game time decision” against UNC but didn’t play. He could be back against the Hokies this weekend. After the UNC game, Mario Cristobal felt better about Clark’s condition than Oluwaseun’s. Those injuries up front could have had something to do with Miami’s lack of a running game against the Tar Heels, especially since both players exited in the second quarter. They left when the Hurricanes had the ball inside the 10, and the offense ended up turning the ball over on downs.
The best player is right tackle DJ Scaife Jr. (6-3, 314, r-Sr.), though he doesn’t have the traditional measurables of an offensive tackle. He’s played both guard and tackle during his career, mostly on the right side, and he’s having a good senior season, especially in terms of pass blocking.
How healthy Miami is up front for this game could play a big role in the outcome. Obviously it will help the Virginia Tech defense to get linebacker Alan Tisdale back as well.
The Miami Defense
Miami ranks No. 50 nationally in the FEI defensive metrics. They’ve been good enough to hold Texas A&M to 17 points on the road (although that’s not a great Aggie offense, to be sure) but also bad enough to allow 507 yards and 8.3 yards per play against Middle Tennessee.From the standpoint of traditional stats, Miami is No. 46 nationally in yards per game allowed against FBS teams (368.0). However, digging deeper we can see that most of their struggles have come against the pass.
Rushing YPG (FBS only): 102.0, No. 14 nationally
Avg yards per rush (FBS only): 3.04, No. 12 nationally
Passing YPG (FBS only): 266.0, No. 98 nationally
Opp. QB Eff (FBS only): 165.48, No. 124 nationally
Middle Tennessee quarterback Chase Cunningham torched the ‘Canes for 408 yards and three touchdowns on just 25 attempts, and that includes a 99 yard touchdown pass one play after Miami failed to covert a fourth and goal from the one. Talk about a backbreaker. The Miami secondary has been all over the place mentally, but that play in particular is also an example of the ‘Canes just getting physically beat.
It's been the long plays that have killed them. They rank No. 97 in the country in completions of 30+ yards allowed against FBS teams (9), No. 112 in completions of 40+ yards (6) and dead last (No. 130) in completions of 50+ yards allowed. They’ve also allowed five receptions of 60+ yards and four of 70+ yards. On more plays than not the Hurricane defenders do their jobs, but they are also prone to some serious lapses. Can Grant Wells, Kaleb Smith and the Hokies take advantage?
Miami is good up front, however, and they rank No. 20 nationally in tackles for loss per game against FBS teams at exactly 7.0. (Virginia Tech ranks No. 7 in this metric…if the Hokies don’t do much else well, they certainly get penetration). They also rank No. 11 in sacks per game with 3.25. This will be an interesting matchup. A Pitt defense that seemed to be a terrible matchup for the Virginia Tech offensive line didn’t manage a single tackle for loss against Hokie running backs last week. If Tech can repeat that improvement this week, they can avoid getting behind the chains.
The Hurricane linebackers haven’t been great on the whole with the exception of Corey Flagg Jr. (5-11, 230, r-So.), and probably bear some responsibility for the pass coverage woes. However, Miami will run quality defensive linemen against the Hokies in waves. Though Pitt’s Calijah Kancey is probably the best individual defensive linemen Tech will face this year, Miami has more athletes across the board, which probably makes this an overall tougher matchup up front.
Flagg leads the team with 7.5 tackles for loss, while two other players have 3.5. Sacks are shared across the board, with 11 different players recording between 0.5 and 2.5 sacks this season. West Virginia transfer Akheem Mesidor (6-3, 280, r-So.) is perhaps the best pass rusher. He was an Honorable Mention All-Big 12 player for the Mountaineers, for whom he had 14.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in two seasons. Tech managed to keep him quiet last year, though, as he didn’t register a tackle for loss or sack against the Hokies. He’s credited with 13 total pressures on the year, while fellow edge defender Jahfari Harvey (6-4, 252, r-So.) is credited with 16.
Overall, Miami will rotate their defensive line quite a bit to stay fresh. The Hokies need to keep the chains moving to try and negate their depth.
Safety Kamren Kinchens (5-11, 202, So.) has been the ball hawk for the Hurricanes this season, recording three interceptions in five games, with one each against Bethune-Cookman, Middle Tennessee and North Carolina. Probably the most susceptible defensive back is corner DJ Ivey (6-1, 195, r-Sr.). He’s the one who allowed the deep touchdown pass in a critical situation against Middle Tennessee.
Special Teams
Kicker Andre Borregalas (5-11, 170, So.) is 8-of-11 on the season, though Miami’s algorithm on their website is messed up and lists his longest field goal at 159 yards (and Miami’s opponents’ longest field goal is 121 yard, haha). A closer inspection reveals that his longest on the season is 39 yards, though he also drilled a 55-yarder last year. 22 of his 31 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, so the Hokies aren’t likely to get many chances at returns.
The Hurricanes do have a dynamic return man in Key’Shawn Smith (6-1, 182, r-So.). The San Diego native had a couple of 70+ yarders against Bethune-Cookman, and he also returned one 91 yards for a touchdown against Middle Tennessee. The Hokies will have to do better on their kickoffs than they did a week ago against Pitt.
Miami’s coverage teams have been sound, with opponents averaging only 1.7 yards per punt return. That hasn’t been a strength for Virginia Tech this season, and on paper it’s not something you should expect to see them get much out of this weekend.
Final Thoughts
We’re somewhere around year number 15 of “The U is back!” Guess what…they still aren’t back. Previous Miami coaches were unable to solve their problems, and thus far Mario Cristobal is having the same issues. The Hurricanes have athletes, but they don’t play consistent football.This is a winnable game for Virginia Tech. It’s also a game where, if Miami’s athletes show up and they are dialed in mentally, could go south for the Hokies in a hurry. One thing that does concern me, oddly enough, is that this game is in Lane Stadium. Four of Miami’s games have been at home, and even Tyler Van Dyke has had negative comments about the Miami “crowds.”
“I like away games better. … We don’t really have much of a college atmosphere because we play at Hard Rock [Stadium],” Van Dyke said. “We’re about twenty-five minutes away from campus, so a lot of students don’t go up most of the game unless it’s a big game.”
A few days after making those comments, Van Dyke got booed off the field by the 46,713 fans (yeah, I don’t believe that number for a minute) at Hard Rock Stadium during Miami’s loss to Middle Tennessee.
He’s not wrong, though. I think Miami played their best mental game of the season on the road in front of 107,245 fans in a great atmosphere at Kyle Field. They blew some opportunities, but they outgained the Aggies 392-264, and the defense was much more mentally dialed in than they have been in their two games since.
That’s my worry about Saturday. Because they’ll be playing in front of a packed house and in a real college atmosphere, the Miami players will suddenly remember that they are college football players, and they’ll start having fun and play a good game.
On the other hand, it’s Miami, and you never really know, do you? If anybody has them figured out, I’m sure Mario Cristobal would appreciate a phone call.
Both teams are due for a win, but in the end I just can’t see Miami with a 2-4 record. They are better than that.
Chris's Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 24
Will Stewart’s Take: This looks like a bad matchup. What I don’t like is that the one place the ‘Canes are suspect on D – pass defense – Virginia Tech is not poised to take advantage. Stretching the field isn’t a Hokie forte. We know that Kaleb Smith is a dependable receiver who can out-battle a defender for the ball, but we haven’t seen him running downfield wide open. Perhaps we’ll see Christian Moss emerge from witness protection, or maybe we’ll see another deep ball to Da’Wain Lofton, but in general, downfield passing is not something Tech is good at.
Virginia Tech’s rushing game improved last weekend, but as Chris detailed, Miami’s really good at defending the run. The ‘Canes have a tough, penetrating DL that could give the Hokies problems.
But hey, they’re Miami. Anything’s possible.
On the other side of the ball, the Virginia Tech defense got off to a promising start the first three games but has surrendered 481 yards and 40 points per game the last three outings. The point totals have climbed higher lately: 33, 41, and 45.
My head doesn’t like Tech’s chances. But the heart knows this is Miami we’re talking about, and here’s where I land: I started saying well over a month ago that the Hokies would win one of the WVU-UNC-Pitt-Miami series of games … and we’re down to just one game left.
I don’t know how this is going to happen, but I have to stand by that statement. So any amount of analysis doesn’t really matter.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Miami 24
David Cunningham's Take: It doesn't take a genius to know that this is Virginia Tech's best chance to win a game in October. But do the Hokies have what it takes?
Miami has more talent in all three phases but hasn't put it to use. Tyler Van Dyke has been shaky, though he churned out a solid performance against Tech in Hard Rock Stadium last season. What kind of Miami offense will we see on Saturday?
I'm riding with the Hurricanes... mostly because I haven't seen enough out of Virginia Tech to be convinced. The Hokies were much better offensively at Pitt, but they stunk on defense and special teams with the exception of an interception and a blocked punt. Allowing a running back to rush for 320 yards and six touchdowns should tell the story.
I think it'll be a close contest, but with the statuses of Kaleb Smith, TyJuan Garbutt and Dorian Strong up in the air due to injury, I'm riding the Hurricanes in a tight one. Tech should have what it takes, but can it put the pieces together? That's been a challenge. Nevertheless, it'll be a rocking crowd in Lane Stadium (for Enter Sandman, at least).
David's Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 22
Last Game's Virginia Tech-Pitt Prediction Poll Results
Game Result: Pittsburgh 45, Virginia Tech 29 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ |  |
ODU 20, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 |  |
Hokies 27, BC 10 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 27, Wofford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
WVU 33, Hokies 10 | |
| UNC Wins by 11+ | |
UNC 41, Hokies 10 | |
| Pittsburgh Wins by 11+ | |
Pittsburgh 45, Hokies 29 | |
| Hurricanes Win by 11+ | |
Miami 20, Hokies 14 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ | |
NC State 22, Hokies 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
GT 28, Hokies 27 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 11+ | |
Duke 24, Hokies 7 | |
| Flames Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 23, Flames 22 | |
| Virginia Wins by 11+ | |
Hokies 29, Virginia 24 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Maryland 54, Hokies 10 | |