- Virginia Tech at Pitt: Saturday, October 8, 3:30, ACC Network
- Betting Line: Pitt -14.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Game notes from HokieSports: Click here
- Pittsburgh weather: Click here
Nope, it’s not Heinz Field anymore. The House of Horrors for the Hokies has a brand-new name, but should we expect brand-new results?
The Panthers haven’t been as good this year as they expected. It was always going to be a struggle to replace Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, but an injury to quarterback Kedon Slovis at Tennessee didn’t help. Probably of more import to head coach Pat Narduzzi, however, is that the Pitt defense hasn’t been as good as expected this year.
Of course, there’s still plenty of time for the Panthers to get things right. They face what appears to be a favorable matchup this weekend against Virginia Tech. That’s followed by a bye week, and then a matchup with Louisville. As far as the Hokies go, it’s a fair question to ask at this point: when will Virginia Tech win a football game again?
Pitt always seems to be a tough matchup these days, and the Hokies won at Heinz Field/Acrisure Stadium just once (it opened in 2001). In fact, many of the games there were complete blowouts. Here are the scores dating back to 2001…
- 2001: Pitt 38, Virginia Tech 7
- 2003: Pitt 31, Virginia Tech 28
- 2012: Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 17
- 2014: Pitt 21, Virginia Tech 16
- 2016: Virginia Tech 39, Pitt 36
- 2018: Pitt 52, Virginia Tech 22
- 2020: Pitt 47, Virginia Tech 14
Total: 1-6, outscored 260-143 (37-20)
Only once in those seven meetings has Pitt scored fewer than 31 points against Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, the Hokies are a football team that has scored a total of 20 points over the last two games, their worst two-game stretch since 1989. At the time of this writing, Pitt is favored by 14 points, but all the numbers suggest that line might be a bit low.
Nevertheless, stranger things have happened. One of those stranger things happened last week to Pitt when the Panthers inexplicably lost to Georgia Tech. Can lightning strike twice?
Replacing Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett, a first round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers, was replaced by Kedon Slovis (6-3, 215, Sr.). Slovis transferred from USC, where he started 26 games for the Trojans. It was Slovis who eventually beat out JT Daniels at USC, and Daniels subsequently transferred to Georgia and later to West Virginia. (Pay attention, there will be a quiz later.)The Panthers were close in their road game at Tennessee before Slovis was injured, but they ended up falling 34-27 in overtime. He missed the next week’s game against Western Michigan before returning for a 45-24 victory over FCS Rhode Island. He was also the quarterback for last week’s upset loss to Georgia Tech. Slovis put up good numbers in that game, but ultimately it was fumbles by other Pitt players that cost them that game.
For the season, Slovis has completed 63.3% of his passes for 997 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. That may not seem like dominant numbers, but remember that he missed about 1.5 games due to injury.
Though he’s not as dynamic as the quarterback the Hokies faced in Chapel Hill last week, Slovis is a quality player, and the Pitt offense appears to be more balanced this year.
Pittsburgh Offensive Balance
Narduzzi has been critical of former offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s unwillingness to establish a running game. After Whipple “resigned” following Pitt’s ACC Championship Game win, Narduzzi replaced him with veteran OC/QB coach Frank Cignetti Jr., a Pittsburgh native. You probably recognize that name because he’s coached at Boston College as recently as last season, and he’s also been at Rutgers, Pitt, Cal, California and Fresno State since 2002.
Cignetti has also been the quarterbacks coach for the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, 49ers, Giants and Packers, while also serving as OC for the Rams in 2015. He’s a Pittsburgh native, and the hire made complete sense for the Panthers.
Since his hire, Cignetti has tried to bring more balance to the Pitt offense, and so far he’s found some success. Though quarterback Kedon Slovis isn’t a runner (-34 rushing yards this season), the Panthers have still managed to find a solid 1-2 combo at tailback…
Israel Abanikanda (5-11, 215, Sr): 93 carries, 510 yards, 5.5 ypc, 6 TDs
Vincent Davis (5-8, 180, Sr.): 38 carries, 228 yards, 6.0 ypc, 1 TD
Davis isn’t the biggest back, but he’s a good complement to Abanikanda, who could be on his way to having a 1,000-yard season. Both guys are veteran seniors who could make it tough on the Hokies. However, Abanikanda had his arm in a sling at the end of the Pitt game, so his status for the Hokies this weekend is unknown.
The Pitt running game has lit up bad competition and struggled against more talented teams. Here’s a game-by-game look at their production…
WVU: 38 carries, 76 yards, 2.0 ypc
Tennessee: 39 carries, 141 yards, 3.9 ypc
Western Michigan: 52 carries, 238 yards, 4.6 ypc
Rhode Island: 41 carries, 271 yards, 6.6 ypc
Georgia Tech: 31 carries, 106 yards, 3.4 ypc
Pitt has failed to crack four yards per carry against the three Power 5 teams they’ve faced, though their performance against Tennessee was solid enough to provide balance. Still, I’m guessing Narduzzi and Cignetti will want to see a better running performance this week against the Hokies. To refresh your memory, here’s what the Tech rushing defense has done the last two weeks…
WVU: 46 carries, 218 yards, 4.7 ypc
UNC: 32 carries, 160 yards, 5.0 ypc
The Hokies have struggled to stop the run the last two weeks, and the Tar Heels probably could have run for more yards if they hadn’t been so busy throwing it over Tech’s heads. It will be very important for the VT defense to make the Panthers one-dimensional this week.
Pitt’s Quality Wideouts
Though the Panthers aren’t deep at wide receiver, they’ve got a pair of good ones whose numbers would be better had Slovis not been injured.Konata Mumpfield (6-1, 180, So.): 24 catches, 257 yards, 10.7 ypc, 1 TD
Jared Wayne (6-3, 210, Sr.): 19 catches, 354 yards, 18.6 ypc, 1 TD
Mumpfield was the No. 2,672 recruit in the country and the No. 243 prospect in Georgia coming out of high school, and he played for Akron before transferring to Pitt. Wayne ranked No. 1,508 nationally and was the No. 203 recruit in Florida who picked the Panthers over Old Dominion out of high school. The Panthers did a good job of mining the portal from a MAC school, and they did a good job of evaluating and developing Wayne out of high school.
Louisiana Tech transfer Bub Means (6-2, 215, r-So., and a 2-star recruit by 247) provides a solid complementary option at wide receiver. Tight end Gavin Bartholomew (6-5, 255, So.) has also caught 11 passes this season, and you may expect his numbers to go up since Slovis is now back behind center.
The Panthers don’t have a large number of elite targets like the Hokies faced against North Carolina last week, but they do have 3-4 solid players who have been developed well over time and who have turned into competent college targets.
Experience Up Front For Pitt
The Panthers start four redshirt seniors and a redshirt junior on the offensive line, and they rotate as well. A total of eight offensive linemen have played 100+ snaps, though that’s a little bit deceiving. Offensive tackle Ryan Jacoby will line up as a sixth offensive lineman in jumbo formations, with over 100 snaps there this year.
The starters on the depth chart look like this…
LT Warren Carter (6-5, 325, r-Sr.)
LG Marcus Minor (6-4, 325, r-Sr.)
C Owen Drexel (6-3, 305, r-Sr.)
RG Jake Kradel (6-3, 305, r-Sr.)
RT Matt Goncalves (6-6, 315, r-Jr.)
Right tackle Gabe Houy (6-6, 325, r-Sr.) only recently returned from injury, and as a part-time starter throughout his career, he could be in line for more playing time against the Hokies. That depth chart is also deceiving because starting center Owen Drexel hasn’t played since the Tennessee game due to a leg injury. He’s one of a few injuries the Panthers have suffered up front this season, which is one of the reasons their running game hasn’t been as consistent as Narduzzi would like. However, with Houy returning, they appear to be getting a bit healthier.
The Experienced Pitt Defense
The Pitt defense isn’t performing as well as Panther fans or Pat Narduzzi would have hoped. They’ve been good, but they’ve been inconsistent against the run. Here are some key defensive statistics, both traditional and analytical, that compare this Pitt defense to their 2021 iteration.FEI Defensive Rating: No. 67 this year, No. 47 last year
Total Defense: No. 32 this year, No. 38 last year
Rushing Defense: No. 51 this year, No. 6 last year
Pass Eff. Defense: No. 36 this year, No. 58 last year
While the Pitt pass defense has improved, they have been gashed at times in the running game. Here’s a week-by-week account of their rushing defense…
West Virginia: 33 carries, 190 yards, 5.8 ypc
Tennessee: 35 carries, 91 yards, 2.6 ypc
Western Michigan: 29 carries, 50 yards, 1.7 ypc
Rhode Island: 22 carries, 63 yards, 2.9 ypc
Georgia Tech: 44 carries, 232 yards, 5.3 ypc
Pitt gave up a lot of yards against West Virginia and the solid Mountaineer rushing game but shut down Tennessee the next week, and then dominated Western Michigan and Rhode Island as you might expect. It appeared that whatever issues they had were fixed, but then Georgia Tech – who ranks No. 93 nationally in rushing yards per game against FBS schools – ran all over the Panther defense for 232 yards in the upset win. It made no sense at all, and Narduzzi has to be ticked off about it. The Pitt defense is probably going through some tough practices this week.
They’ll face a Virginia Tech rushing attack that is even worse than Georgia Tech’s. The Hokies rank No. 109 in the country in rushing yards per game against FBS teams, and their 3.09 yards per carry against such teams ranks No. 112. Tech has failed to top 100 rushing yards in each of its last two games.
Pitt starts 11 juniors and seniors on defense, and of the other 11 players in their two-deep, eight are also juniors and seniors. Of those 18 juniors and seniors in the two-deep, 13 have redshirted. Narduzzi is the ultimate player development coach, and he’s won games (and an ACC Title) despite his recruiting class rankings averaging only 45.7 during his tenure.
Despite their inconsistencies against the run at times, the Pitt defense features a lot of very good and experienced players. 2021 Third Team All-American Calijah Kancey (6-0, 280, r-Jr.) is their best player. He’s got 7.5 tackles for loss and three sacks this season after finishing with 13 TFL and seven sacks last season. He’s built in the typical Pitt defensive tackle mold (think Aaron Donald). He’s undersized, but quick and strong, and Narduzzi knows how to use players like that. A 3-star recruit and the No. 113 player in Florida coming out of high school, the Pitt head coach knows how to find and develop defensive linemen like Kancey.
Erick Hallett II (5-11, 195, r-Sr.) is listed as Pitt’s starter at free safety, though you could also consider him a slot corner based on alignment. The Texas native has been very consistent for the Panthers all season. He was an Honorable Mention All-ACC player a year ago, and he leads the Panthers with two interceptions so far in 2022.
Linebacker SirVocea Dennis (6-1, 230, Sr.) is one of the few Pitt defenders who never redshirted. He was a Second Team All-ACC player last season, and he’s had a very good career for the Panthers. He leads the team in tackles with 38 so far this season, including four for a loss and three sacks. He’s regarded as an excellent run defender.
Another thing that stands out to me is how Narduzzi has been able to recruit nationally (and internationally) to build a veteran, solid defense…
DE Habakkuk Baldonado: Rome, Italy
DT Devin Danielson: Pittsburgh, PA
DT Calijah Kancey: Miami, FL
DE Deslin Alexandre: Pompano Beach, FL
LB SirVocea Dennis: Syracuse, NY
LB Bangally Kamara: Akron, OH
LB Shayne Simon: West Orange, NJ
CB MJ Devonshire: Aliquippa, PA
CB Marquis Williams: Pompano Beach, FL
FS Erick Hallett II: Houston, TX
SS Brandon Hill: Apopka, FL
The Panthers have twice as many starters from Florida as they do from Pennsylvania, and Narduzzi has even reached as far as Rome to find a starting defensive linemen. In-state recruiting is harder these days for almost everybody because more players have more options. Big programs come in and pick whoever they want. Evaluation for schematic and culture fit, good player development and a willingness to cast a wide net have helped Narduzzi build a solid program.
Pitt Special Teams
Kicker specialist Ben Sauls has put 19 of his 30 kicks into the endzone for touchbacks this season, and opponents are managing just 17 yards per return. It seems unlikely that the Hokies will be able to get anything out of the kick return game this week.
Punter Sam Vander Haar averages 38.9 yards per punt. Only four of his 16 punts have been fair caught, and one of them has been blocked. Pitt doesn’t give up many yards on punt returns (6.7 avg. on six returns) but it’s possible we see the Hokies go after a block since West Virginia was able to get one.
Punt returner MJ Devonshire has a touchdown to his credit this season and is averaging 12.6 yards per return with a long of 82. The Panthers haven’t done much on kickoff returns with a long of just 31 yards. Sauls also handles the field goal duties, where he’s been inconsistent. He’s just 6-of-9 on the season, including two misses from inside 40 yards.
The Hokies haven’t been able to generate any big plays on special teams in 2022. This week would be a good time to start.
Final Thoughts
Noted Pitt football analyst TheWerewolfFromTwilight doesn’t believe Pitt’s three principal actors are doing a very good job this season.
Nevertheless, considering what we’ve seen from this Virginia Tech team the last two weeks, what we’ve seen from the offense for the entire season, and what has happened to the Hokies in Pittsburgh over the last two decades, picking the good guys to win this one would seem to be more of an emotional pick than a logical one.
Pitt’s defense probably hasn’t played as well as they should have so far this season, but they are still better than the defenses the Hokies have faced the last two weeks. Tech managed just 10 points in each of those two games. I’m worried that in one of these games VT might mess around and get shut out for the first time since 1995, and if that’s going to happen, in Pittsburgh would be as good a guess as any considering the results in that city in recent years.
Pitt is a better football team than their 3-2 record indicates. They might have beaten Tennessee had they not lost their starting quarterback. That was a tough overtime loss. A pair of fumbles cost them against Georgia Tech, but I’m guessing the Panthers would win that game eight or nine times if those teams played 10. I expect their coaches are really challenging their players in practice this week after their loss to the Yellow Jackets. Good timing, huh?
Chris's Prediction: Pitt 34, Virginia Tech 13
Will Stewart's Take: This is one of those instances where I saw/looked at Chris's pick before writing my section, because it just doesn't matter this week.
Pittsburgh has been a house of horrors for the Hokies for decades, similar to Syracuse's Carrier Dome. Overall, the Hokies lead the 21-game series 11-10, but in Pittsburgh, Tech trails 4-7, including a 1-6 record in Heinz Field from 2001-2020. It's interesting to look at:
It was the 1993 road game in Pittsburgh where Frank Beamer turned six years of frustration (1987-1992) into a Hall of Fame career. Everything changed the night that Virginia Tech ran for 500 yards and seven touchdowns in old Pitt Stadium.
But other than that, it's been tough sledding, even for Tech's best teams. The 1995 Sugar Bowl team trailed 16-10 going into the fourth quarter. The 1999 Hokies weren't seriously threatened, but they did give up 427 yards passing that night to a Pitt team that refused to quit. As for the 2016 Hokies, that may be the best game I've seen Tech play in Pittsburgh, yet they barely escaped with a three-point win.
You may have noticed that I love history lessons in these game previews. Let's just say that if Virginia Tech comes out of Acrisure Stadium with a win, that will be the most impressive performance in Pitt since 1993.
Every year I make up the roster cards for this game, and I'm floored by how many seniors and redshirt-seniors Pittsburgh has on their team. Every year. I don't know how they do it. Brent Pry should schedule a trip to Pitt in the off-season and study how Narduzzi gets kids to redshirt, stay, develop, and produce.
Having seen Chris's prediction, history says it's too conservative. Since 2001, Pitt has averaged 37 points in Pittsburgh against Virginia Tech -- in the last three visits, 46 points -- against teams that were better than this year's Hokies.
Tough to type ...
Will's Prediction: Pittsburgh 42, Virginia Tech 13
David Cunningham's Prediction: Much like last week, there aren't many positives to look at heading into this game. I guess that it's not called Heinz Field anymore? That's probably just more frustrating than anything because now we have to call it something different.
I'll keep it plain and simple: the Virginia Tech offense has not proven anything to me whatsoever. It was marginally better in the first half against North Carolina because of Keshawn King running the ball, but it's one-dimensional and easy to plan for. It's going to be another one of those games where Tech is close at halftime and then punts four straight possessions of the second half. It's like we've seen that somewhere before...
Slovis and Pitt are pretty good. It won't be the high-powered offenses of UNC or WVU, but it'll be challenging. I'd take Pitt -20 if you gave it to me, to be honest. This Virginia Tech offense can't score to save its life, and until the Hokies show me they can play four quarters of football and be competitive, I'm unfortunately picking against them every week.
David's Prediction: Pittsburgh 37, Virginia Tech 7
Last Game's Virginia Tech-UNC Prediction Poll Results
Game Result: North Carolina 41, Virginia Tech 10 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Hokies Win by 11+ |  |
ODU 20, Hokies 17 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 |  |
Hokies 27, BC 10 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 27, Wofford 7 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
WVU 33, Hokies 10 | |
| UNC Wins by 11+ | |
UNC 41, Hokies 10 | |
| Pittsburgh Wins by 11+ | |
Pittsburgh 45, Hokies 29 | |
| Hurricanes Win by 11+ | |
Miami 20, Hokies 14 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ | |
NC State 22, Hokies 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
GT 28, Hokies 27 | |
| Blue Devils Win by 11+ | |
Duke 24, Hokies 7 | |
| Flames Win by 11+ | |
Hokies 23, Flames 22 | |
| Virginia Wins by 11+ | |
Hokies 29, Virginia 24 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 | |
Maryland 54, Hokies 10 | |