With 19 days until Selection Sunday, Virginia Tech men's basketball is on the NCAA Tournament bubble for the first time since the Seth Greenberg era.
It's late February, and the Hokies are 16-11, and 8-8 in the ACC. Overall, that's just one win better than Mike Young's first team (15-12, 6-10 ACC) through 27 games, though Tech has two more league victories than that team.
But for the last six seasons, Tech had something really good going. The program has made the last four NCAA Tournaments, a school record.
That run of NCAA appearances is in jeopardy, and it has been since January. But it's been a very strange season, one where Tech's result depends on late game runs.
The Hokies have a win vs. Notre Dame, one of four ACC losses for the Irish, and Tech played well at home against Miami but fell on a halfcourt heave. Two losses against North Carolina came by a combined 18 points, but VT trailed by less than five points with six minutes to go in each contest.
Those are three of the ACC's top four teams at the moment. Virginia Tech led Duke, who is currently in first, until the 15-minute mark in the second half. Wake Forest, currently in fifth, blew Tech out, but the Hokies split with UVa (sixth place) and beat Syracuse (seventh).
So where did everything go wrong? Two dates - Jan. 4 and Jan. 29 - paint a good picture, though they do not tell the entire story.
Virginia Tech's two Quadrant 3 losses, vs. NC State and at Boston College, ironically were both 68-63. In both games, Tech led or the game was tied in the final five minutes. But lack of execution down the stretch - 5-of-14 shooting, 1-of-7 from three, three turnovers and 13 offensive rebounds allowed in those two losses - has defined the season for VT.
If the Hokies win those two games, they are 12-0 in Quadrant 3 and 4 games while sitting at 18-9, 10-6. They'd only be in seventh in the conference, just one spot higher, but they wouldn't have any deep gashes in their resume.
Instead, everyone is asking the question, 'what will it take for Virginia Tech to reach the NCAA Tournament?'
The simple answer is winning. Georgia Tech, Louisville and Clemson are must-wins. Stealing a game at Miami, where the Hokies won in overtime last season, would be a boost. But it's ultimately going to come down to the ACC Tournament.
Right now, the Hokies would be the No. 8 seed. The most favorable matchup for them would be getting the No. 7 seed and going through Notre Dame, who has Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Pitt left. The Irish should end up as the No. 2 seed, unless Duke loses twice, which is possible.
So, how does Tech get the No. 7 seed? Win, and hope Syracuse (currently seventh) can't run the gauntlet of Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina and Miami. Another quadrant one win - Duke, Wake Forest and North Carolina currently qualify on a neutral floor (NET 1-50) - would also help.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Tech as the 78th team in terms of seeding at the moment. That's two spots outside of the "Next Four Out."
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/1496139440061919249
Teams in front are bound to lose between now and March 13, and all the Hokies can do is win and hope the committee finds their body of work favorable. The challenge will be finding that consistency in Brooklyn, and may require shades of UConn in 2011, who won 11 games in 27 days.
The magic number for Tech might be 21 wins, five more from its current total, though it depends on which form those victories take.
Closing out the ACC regular season 4-0 is great, but the only win that really would matter is at Miami. Clemson would be a Quadrant 2 win, but lack of Quadrant 1 wins - something Chris Coleman wrote about a few weeks ago - will likely end up being the difference. Loses to NC State and Boston College don't help the cause, but Tech isn't making the NCAA Tournament as a middle-of-the-pack ACC team with no quality wins.
That's where luck plays a part in the draw, too. As previously mentioned, the No. 7 seed would be ideal. Tech beat Notre Dame earlier in the year and has won three straight against Mike Brey & Co., and the Hokies would have an opportunity to warm up against Georgia Tech or Pitt. Then there could be a possible rematch with North Carolina, who Young & Co. could've beaten had they shot the ball better.
Timely victories and the roll of the dice are both going to factor into this final stretch for Virginia Tech. Three of the four games are on the road, and losing isn't an option.
Justyn Mutts spoke of desperation and how the team played with its back against the wall after the win over Syracuse. At that point, the Hokies had won five straight games.
It's going to take another one of those runs to earn a NCAA Tournament appearance.