Hokie Nation is a little fired up after another dub. (Ivan Morozov)
Three games into the season, after two blowouts and a road win against a Big Ten team with a decent roster, Virginia Tech fans are starting to ask themselves how good this Hokie team really is. We knew that James Franklin was going to build a good roster and a good program, and most fans knew that would take time.
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You’re far from the only person who was on the Logan Thomas hype train. After the 2011 season where he had 60% completion rate with 19 TDs against only 10 picks as a first year full-time QB, it was IMPOSSIBLE to predict he would stall out. National analysts were saying he was a potential 1st rounder…and an early one at that.
He simply never advanced as a passer and actually regressed in his second and third year from a passing standpoint. Part of that is the supporting cast, of course.
BGHokie13
Maybe you shouldn’t call their stadium a “library”…that didn’t work out to well for Colorado at Northwestern.
HokieTC
My Tuesday Thoughts to your Monday's. "clean up what are mostly mental and experience errors" I see the Mostly, but seriously - distinky lack of speed at the corners. IBM was eaten up all night and we will see more of the same. Maybe we can "cover" that up, but you can't clean that up.
Second - if we don't win, we remain the WORST team in the ACC. Nor Easter or no, we have got to win this game. Can't worry about Pitt. Got to win this game.
Will the pressure on the QB return?
beedubyah
In 2021 Burmeister got hurt and because the QB guru ran off a Heisman contender named Hendon Hooker, we had to play Knox Kadum who couldn't hack it at JMU or Mcneese State. Maaaan that was upsetting.
Freddyburg Hokie
Of course Jeff King isn't a better blocker than Luke Reynolds anymore. He's much older than Luke. ;^)
OttawaHokie
I went to that 2019 game... still don't get why we lost that one. Never should have been.
But then I also went to that 2021 game and never should have gone...self-inflicted wound on that one.
JC in FC
Rain and wind generally make passing extremely difficult but with our focus on the short passing game we should be fine in the storm. D line has been stout and this BC QB won't beat us with his arm under these conditions.
Cappydave
Thanks for bringing up the Matt Ryan game.
atlhokie1
Same. But to be honest, that was probably the last really good BC team.
MDHokie79
Oh God, the worst game I ever attended!
ToledoHokie
Boy, I just don’t get it. Everyone, and I mean everyone, predicted we had a great chance to be 3 or 4 and 0 to start the season. We have been favored in every game. So we have done what we were suppose to do. And that’s great.
We will know exactly what we have over the next 2 weeks. Win those 2, and you will have my attention. As of now, you have just peaked my interest. Not
buying the hype we are better than a 7-5 or 8-4 team….yet. Prove it (and I hope you do)!
NokieHokie
Wan't that you who said there was no chance James Franklin would come here? So maybe you do some self-reflection and realize your instincts are poor.
WestyHokie
Technically, they have only piqued your interest. But I agree with your peek ahead. And I hope VT soon stands on the peak of the ACC mountain!
VicDrit
Was your nose bleeding, Will? Haha
Hokie2Architect
Eff Matt Ryan forever and ever amen.
We`re Going
Just in case you thought I was dead, Will, I'm in this photo!!!! Let's Go!
NC Hoke
It was encouraging to see this offense pick up late first downs when keeping possession was critical. I still have a long memory going back to losses to Boise State and Notre Dame which would have been wins by picking up one more first down. Good job offense!
`lag
It's weird to think that the VT - BC rivalry was THE rivalry in the ACC for a couple of years w/Matty Ice at BC
budztheman
Thanks Will, great article per usual. I was actually at the Houston game in 72, was 12, thought Strock threw for 525 in a freakin tie game?!
Will Stewart
October 7, 1972: Virginia Tech 27, Houston 27. Strock had 527 yards passing, per the online record book at stats.hokiesports.com.
Atlee Hokie
Fortunately, we beat Fredo 30-16 in the 2007 ACCCH game, and beat them 30-12 in the 2008 ACCCH game.
BrewThruHokie
I dunno, I thoroughly enjoyed beating BC in back to back ACC Championships!
Beach Hokie
The Matty Ice game: My lowest point ever as a Hokie fan.
I agree. Coach Frankln, smoke BC!!!!!
Hokiestud
If we had won that game, we quite likely would have been playing for the national championship. We finished 3rd in the final BCS standings that year, even with the BC loss. BC was a Top 10 team when we played them. Change that L against BC to a W, and we would have almost certainly finished 2nd in the final BCS standings.
VicDrit
And ironically, we couldn't handle Kansas in the Orange Bowl.
atlhokie1
Overconfident and swapping QB's is no bueno.
OhioHokie74
When you rush 3 and give a QB with Matt Ryan's arm 8+ seconds to find one of 5 receivers open 30 yards down field, you have only yourself to blame. You have gone from playing disciplined aggressive defense to running a backyard pickup game with DBs chasing WRs who are zigging and zagging until one finally gets open enough for Ryan to connect.
OhioHokie74
Comparing players across eras based on raw data that doesn't account for major differences in the way that stats are compiled is not the most "rational" approach. One might try to adjust for differences, perhaps by normalizing the data points to the different eras. You, in fact, "normalized" Jerrod Evans by noting differences in offensive philosophies that make his stats less meaningful to you. You could look at Hendon Hooker and see how his stats looked at VT under Fuente versus in the system he had under Josh Heupel at UT. Yeah, raw stats don't tell what you think they tell.
A rational person could simply note that Strock was #1 nationally in yards per game in 1972 and finished 9th in Heisman voting. Looking at QBs at schools that would be considered Power 4 conference teams today, Strock finished the season near the top in categories like completion percentage and passer rating. When you normalize Grunk against his P4 peers, his numbers look fine, but they don't scream "elite", and they are only for three games, not a full season.
So, is it "rational" to consider a QB who has played 3 games against VMI, ODU and UM to be unquestionably better than a player who led the nation in passing yards and was clearly one of the top four QBs in college football? Only if one doesn't understand how different eras, different rules and different strategies affect stats.
In fact, I am surprised you didn't include Michael Vick in your "rational" assessment, since Vick only completed 54.0% of his passes in 2000, with an 8-6 TD/Int ratio and 7.7 Y/A. Sorry, Mike, your jersey needs to come down to make room for Grunk. In my irrational mind, Vick's two top 10 Heisman rankings and 1st overall pick in the NFL draft overshadow any statistical shortcomings he has versus Grunk's three games.
I like Grunk. I watched him play in high school and was impressed. I hope he becomes a huge success at VT. But I'm not ready to place him in the pantheon of VT greats until he has actually accomplished something, and I don't feel a need to misuse stats in order to suggest he has already surpassed some of the greats of the past.
Will Stewart
See, as a writer, you have to leave yourself an out, and it's subtly buried in that sentence: "You’re not going to find a single rational person who thinks any of those three guys ever did it better than Ethan Grunkemeyer is doing right now."
"right now"
If Grunk goes in the tank, then I'm still right "right now," haha. I learned that lesson from watching Logan Thomas. He was a WAY better QB in 2011 than he was the next two years. Things can change.
Good comment, thanks.
Spartacusjones
I do believe that Mr Howle is intent on ending the Hokies curse on Offensive Coordinators.
The secondary has got to know they are going to get picked on in upcoming games, so they better get better in a hurry. Everybody else is getting the job done.
The progressive difficulty built into this years schedule has been a great benefit. Mistakes and weaknesses have been overcome by some great play by multiple position groups. The Hokies have been granted time to identify issues and to correct them before the really tough part of the schedule. My fever dream has them being bowl eligible before they register an L.
ColoradoHokie
More cowbell
HokiesandHerd
Bill O’Brien is no slouch as a college head coach. What he managed to pull off at Penn State during that time is one of the more underrated tenures in college football history, even if it was just for two seasons. Boston College might not have a lot of talent, but a nor’easter could make talent a little less important. It will come down to who takes care of the ball and takes advantage of favorable situations. UNC 2016 comes to mind, and Fuente was a much better pure football coach than Fedora. I’m expecting a stomach ache Saturday.
Also, maybe a decade and a half of mediocrity and inexplicable losses has negatively impacted my ability to analyze upcoming matchups. We knew Franklin is a much better coach than Locksley, but I still felt shaky going into that game on Saturday. Those worries were gone pretty quickly and never really came back, even when Maryland was looking like they maybe wanted to make interesting (thanks again, Locksley).
Let’s keep this train rolling!
spudman
I agree with your assessment of Bill O'Brien as a head coach what he did at Penn St is grossly underrated
SarahVTHokie24
Totally agree with you on BC. I was so glad to be rid of them and Syracuse when we left the Big East for the ACC. They are the thorn in your side, the pebble in your shoe.
bonedoc
Will, best Monday Thoughts in a long time. You're back!! It makes me happy.
Novahokie`99
Agreed. It’s a fun time to be a Hokie again. I got to hang out with Will during the game and it was a great time. Sorry the tickets weren’t better!
lubru1
So agree with you about Boston College.. loathe, hate…. just all bad feelings about playing them. They’re like a giant, annoying mosquito at a picnic.
taintedzodiac
If you told me all we were getting in year one of the Franklin era was the offense breaking MV7-era scoring records...
Lancelot Link
Correction: if CF wants to win over fans…… he HAS to win this game, not should.
C67VTCC
The first inside screen to LUUUUUUKE brought me out of my chair. I don't recall being so excited about a called play ever before. MV1 was electric but they weren't called plays.
Bwaterhokie
It's not just the number of catches that Reynolds makes, it the difficulty on some of them. He has got great hands.
HokieCrazy1994
And gets TWO feet down!
George Baylor
Fully agree he KNEW where the sideline was and 1st Down spot. Super, SUPPER Player.
proudhokie2001
Will is starting to get Hokie fever and I think its highly contagious.
TomTurkey
Rack em up, deal the cards, open the bottle and throw away the cap.
VTDave9701
I had my prediction as VT 34 MD 24 with Luke having 105 receiving yards. Then I read the TSL predictions and talked myself into a 31 -27 outcome and 75 yards. Should have stuck with my gut. The weather and the fact that it's BC is really going to make for a challenging prediction this week. Can't wait to make the trip... hopefully another great day for the Hokies! Let's go!
sketchrider
Next time make your prediction with the knowledge that the writers on here are ranked in the bottom 1/3. So either do the opposite or don't read them until after you've chosen yours.
middletennhokie
Thanks Will for another great Monday Thoughts, and for bringing back some memories...Don Strock to Ricky Scales. Exciting times for VPI fans.
I'm cautiously excited about this year's team, but still feel like 7 wins is the expected outcome, with 8 wins being over-achieving. Dang Pitt will be a challenge for our secondary. Hope we are both undefeated and Lane is rocking!
Seikoh_04
Bad weather gonna make the score predictions interesting
George Baylor
We can practice with "Wet Ball" but no way to replicate the NE's Wind. GO HOKIES, Just win baby!
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