Game Preview: Virginia Tech vs. Pitt In Matchup Of Unbeatens

• Virginia Tech vs. Pitt: Friday, Oct. 2, at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Lane Stadium (65,632) in Blacksburg, Va.
• Betting line: Virginia Tech -3.5 
• Roster cards: Click here
• Blacksburg weather: Click here 
• Gameday information: Click here 

We got what we wanted. Virginia Tech is 4-0 at the end of September, and we get a huge Friday night showdown with the also-unbeaten (4-0) Pitt Panthers.

We can nitpick certain parts of this Hokies team, but the bottom line is that they have handled business each week and will be rewarded with a fantastic atmosphere in Blacksburg in two days.

Pat Narduzzi’s squad is 4-0 after two blowout victories over lower-level teams and a pair of Power Four wins.

• 59-14 W vs. Miami (OH)
• 12-7 W vs. UCF
• 27-13 W vs. Syracuse
• 59-0 W vs. Bucknell

The Panthers haven’t played a road game yet, but overall their resume is on par with that of Virginia Tech. Even their UCF game was played in driving rain and gusty winds, which means we can’t judge their offensive production in that one. Sound familiar?

They didn’t dominate Syracuse like I thought they might, but that was played on a Thursday night with both teams on a short week, and sometimes that can lead to ugly games.

Overall, Pitt has a slightly better résumé in terms of the quality of teams it’s faced. UCF is 3-1 with a win over TCU, while Miami (OH) is 2-2 with a close loss to Cincinnati, which puts it ahead of programs like ODU and Maryland this season. However, the Panthers haven’t played a road game yet, so they’ll be tested in an opposing venue for the first time when they travel to Lane Stadium.

Pat Narduzzi and James Franklin go way back. Pitt beat Penn State in 2016, and when the Nittany Lions got even in 2017, Franklin had this to say following the game:

“I know last year for their win [against us], it was like the Super Bowl,” Franklin said. “But for us, this was just like beating Akron.”

Overall, this is an interesting matchup between two teams who seem to have plenty in common, but with some subtle differences as well. Let’s take a closer look at the Panthers.

Ethan Grunkemeyer vs. Mason Heintschel

Compared to Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel (6-2, 215, So.) has a bit more starting experience after running the show for a little longer last season, but the overall numbers are pretty similar.

The Panthers may push it down the field a bit more than the Hokies, but their experience, efficiency and size are similar.

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Heintschel has had an interesting season. He has 13 touchdown passes on the season, but all of them came in two games:

Like Grunkemeyer, he had a bad weather game against UCF where he would have had bigger numbers otherwise. He absolutely lit up Miami (OH) and Bucknell, as you would expect.

However, he had a tough game against Syracuse, arguably the worst of his career considering the level of competition. His only worse game than that, judging by QB rating, was against Notre Dame last season. We know he’s capable of playing much better than he performed against the Orange.

Heintschel will be used more in the running game than Grunkemeyer, though he’s very much a pass-first quarterback. He has 110 yards on 26 carries this year, and that includes a 41-yard performance against Syracuse that included a touchdown. Last season, he had just 88 yards on 86 carries.

I got a Friday Q&A question from st_andrew a couple of weeks ago asking me which quarterback Grunkemeyer reminded me of the most. It was a good question, but I didn’t answer it because nobody came to mind. After I spent some time this week watching Pitt, I think Heintschel would have been a pretty good answer to that question.

Their numbers are similar, their size is almost identical and their playing style isn’t much different. Both guys have good pocket presence and can move well enough to buy time and create better throwing lanes. Both guys are in their second season as a starter. It will be interesting to see who goes on to have the better career, but right now, they look like the same guy.

Pitt’s Playmakers

The Panthers have a lot of experience at wide receiver and tight end, and they’ll also come at the Hokies with as many as three capable running backs. Let’s take a look at those running backs first:

• Ja’Kyrian Turner (5-9, 195, So.): Turner has only appeared in the season opener due to injury. Last season, he led the Panthers in rushing as a true freshman with 745 yards on 140 carries. He had a 127-yard performance against Stanford and an impressive 201-yard game against a good Georgia Tech defense. He’s a very capable player, but will he be available on Friday? He was listed as questionable in the ACC’s initial availability report on Tuesday.

• Damon Ferguson Jr. (5-11, 190, Fr.): The true freshman leads the Panthers with 239 yards rushing and two touchdowns through four games. He had 102 yards against Syracuse, and also seems like a capable receiver out of the backfield. If Turner is out, can he carry the load?

• La’Vell Wright (5-11, 215, 6th): Wright missed last week’s game against Bucknell. If he can’t go on Friday, and neither can Turner, will the Panthers be able to only rely on Ferguson? Wright is a veteran back who had 10 rushing touchdowns on 85 carries last season, which shows that the Panthers like to use him around the goal line.

That’s a solid trio of running backs when healthy, but are they?

Seventeen players have caught at least one pass for the Panthers this season, while 15 players have caught one for the Hokies. These two offenses are similar in so many ways.

The top four targets so far are as follows:

• WR Censere Lee (5-11, 170, 5th): The transfer from Western Carolina has had an injury-plagued career since moving to Pitt, but he finally seems healthy this season. He’s tied for the team lead with 13 receptions and leads the team with four touchdown receptions.

• WR Bryce Yates (6-0, 185, So.): Yates also has 13 receptions, and he is second on the team with 193 yards.

• WR Cataurus Hicks (5-10, 185, Sr.): With 12 receptions for 252 yards, Hicks has been Pitt’s best big-play threat thus far.

• TE Carson Kent (6-4, 250, 5th): Kent has caught 11 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown in 2026.

Another Western Carolina transfer is wide receiver Malik Knight, and he might be the best of this group. He’s got seven receptions on the season. However, he missed last week’s game against Bucknell with an injury, and is ruled out for the Hokies’ game.

I view this group of players as solid, but between the running backs, tight ends and receivers, Pitt doesn’t have a Jeffrey Overton, Luke Reynolds or Que’Sean Brown. In an offense vs. offense battle, I give the Hokies a slight edge due to better playmakers.

Pitt’s Offensive Line

Virginia Tech has not faced a good offensive line so far this season. In fact, it hasn’t even faced what I would describe as an average offensive line. I thought Maryland’s group might have been OK, but it hasn’t played out that way. That will change on Friday night when the Hokies meet the Panthers.

Pitt offensive line coach Jeremy Darveau is in his third year at the school after coming over from Western Carolina with offensive coordinator Kade Bell. He’s got a very experienced group of players:

• LT Netinho Olivieri (6-5, 310, 5th): 2,205 career snaps, albeit nearly 2,000 of them came at Penn. He’s been solid through four games for the Panthers.

• LG Kendall Stanley (6-5, 305, 5th): 1,545 career snaps. Second year starting at Pitt after transferring from Charlotte. Basically a replacement-level player.

• C Ryan Carretta (6-5, 320, Sr.): 857 career snaps. Carretta is in his second season as Pitt’s starting center.

• RG BJ Williams (6-4, 320, Sr.): 2,423 career snaps. Williams has spent his entire career with the Panthers, and he’s played a ton. He’s a solid player.

• RT Ryan Baer (6-7, 325, 5th): 2,687 career snaps. Baer is a long-time starter at offensive tackle and Pitt’s best offensive lineman. He was an honorable mention all-conference player last season, and could be even better than that in 2026.

These guys are backed up by mostly juniors and seniors as well, so overall, this is an extremely experienced group. It’s not the most talented group the Hokies will face in 2026, but it’s a cohesive unit, and Tech’s biggest challenge to date by a large margin.

The Pitt Defense

I think Heintschel is really good, but it’s the Pitt defense that concerns me in this game. Here are the unit’s traditional metrics for the season (FBS opponents only):

• Rush Defense: No. 4
• YPC Allowed: No. 7
• Passing Defense: No. 59
• YPA: No. 38
• QB Rating: No. 22
• Scoring Defense: No. 5
• Total Defense: No. 18
• Yards per Play: No. 17

The Panthers rank No. 17 nationally in DF+ and No. 8 in available yards. They also rank No. 23 in tackles for loss per game and No. 27 in sacks per game. This is a very good group.

One of the things that makes it so good is its experience. Last week, the Hokies faced a Boston College defense that started eight sophomores. This week, it’ll face a Panther stop unit that has four fourth-or fifth-year players on the defensive line, and they are backed up by a junior and three seniors.

Pitt starts two seniors and a junior at linebacker, and they are backed up by seniors and juniors. There’s not quite as much experience in the secondary, and Tech must take advantage of that, but this will be by far the Hokies’ most significant test up front this season.

The Panthers are known for their tough, in-your-face man coverage on the outside and their physical play up front. How the Hokies handle that physicality will determine whether or not they win this game. Pitt is a different breed than the first four opponents Tech faced, and I don’t like going into this matchup without a full deck on the offensive line.

That said, the Virginia Tech offense is going to challenge the Panther defense like it hasn’t been challenged yet this season. Syracuse doesn’t come close to matching the VT offensive talent; neither does UCF, and that game was played in bad conditions.

As much as Tech will be challenged by Pitt’s physicality, the Panthers’ defense will not have seen anyone like Overton, Reynolds or Brown this season, nor will they have faced a quarterback as good as Ethan Grunkemeyer.

The nature of Pitt’s defense means that it’ll be susceptible to some big plays at times, and it’s important that Virginia Tech takes advantage of those opportunities when they arise.

Yes, Overton, Reynolds and Brown will be important, but it will be just as important to get Ayden Greene back, who has shown the ability to make contested catches in the past. Don’t discount Marlion Jackson, either, as his size could be important against the Pitt cornerbacks.

One matchup to watch involves Pitt star linebacker Braylan Lovelace (6-2, 225, Sr.). He’s played both outside linebacker roles in his career, but started at mike last year. He’s now on the outside at star, where he could be isolated against either Luke Reynolds or Que’Sean Brown at various points.

Lovelace is a very good, experienced player with 1,638 snaps under his belt. However, he’s struggled with missed tackles at times, with six so far this year and 23 a year ago.

With a 22.7 percent missed tackle rate for his career, according to PFF, the Hokies need to find a way to isolate Lovelace. That shouldn’t be too difficult given the nature of Pitt’s scheme; then it will be up to Tech’s players to shake the tackle.

Lovelace might be Pitt’s most well-known player, but I wouldn’t say that there is a star on this side of the ball for the Panthers. They get plenty of tackles for loss and sacks, but nobody has more than 3.5 TFLs, and no player has more than one sack. It’s a group effort, and we’ll find out more about their individual talent level on Friday night.

Pitt Special Teams

Western Illinois transfer Antonio Chadha has been money on his field goals so far, converting all five attempts with a long of 58 yards. Likewise, Idaho State punter Gabe Russo was a semifinalist for FCS punter of the year last season, and he and the Pitt punt team have limited returns to just 17 yards on three opportunities so far.

The Hokies’ Que’Sean Brown will find it more difficult to get off a good return this week, though it can also be said that the Panthers haven’t faced a return game like this one.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech hasn’t surrendered a single punt return this year. No attempts. No yards. Nothing. The Hokies’ punting operation has been as good as it gets. Same for their kickoff team. Likewise, Pitt’s return men don’t stand out, though it’s a limited sample size. It would be a surprise if the Panthers were able to generate much yardage in the return game.

On paper, those units should cancel each other out, with a slight advantage to the home side due to John Love’s history and Brown’s punt return ability.

Virginia Tech-Pitt Game Prediction: Make Your Pick!

Make your own individual game score prediction (plus a tiebreaker) and compete against other Hokie fans to see who gets the closest! It’s simple: Enter your score prediction and tiebreaker guess, then click submit. You can change your pick up until kickoff.

Last Week’s Results (Final Score: VT 21, BC 14): Click here for results

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Staff Rankings - BC Game (2,021 entries):

• Andy Bitter (VT 28, BC 14): #268
• Chris Coleman (VT 31, BC 14): #700
• David Cunningham (VT 28, BC 10): #780
• Will Stewart (VT 34, BC 17) : #975
• Nick Brown (VT 27, BC 7): #1023

Check out full results and rankings, including the TSL staff season rankings, on our Game Predictions page.

Staff Predictions

Chris Coleman (Lead Analyst & Columnist): Here we are in Week 5, and there are only 22 remaining undefeated teams. We’ll get to see two of them square off in Lane Stadium on Friday night, and it looks like a dead-even matchup.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ metrics predict a Virginia Tech win by one-tenth of a point, though most of the other advanced metrics seem to be ever-so-slightly favoring Pitt. Both quarterbacks seem the same to me.

I think I’d give the Hokies the advantage offensively from a playmaker standpoint, but I feel like Pitt has the better defense, and I don’t like the thought of facing the defensive front with a banged-up offensive line. So, who will win?

I’ve gone back and forth on this one in the preseason, since the regular season started and since I began writing this game preview on Monday afternoon. I watched three Pitt games — Miami (OH), UCF and Syracuse — to try and get a better idea of what’s going to happen, and I feel like I’m even more confused.

I don’t think I’ve ever gone back and forth on a pick like this before, and it’s absolutely driving me crazy. In fact, I don’t think a human being has been this conflicted about something in approximately 40 years…

In the end, I can make a strong argument for both teams. I know that with Georgia Tech looking bad and Cal not looking so hot, a victory in this game would give the Hokies a chance to be a 7-0 football team heading into Clemson on Oct. 24. That would be wild.

But do the Hokies look like a 7-0 football team? I don’t think so. I’d certainly take it, but they are down to just about their final depth piece on the offensive line, and we don’t know how this defense will handle a legitimate passing quarterback.

I do think the Hokies are better than Georgia Tech and Cal, so I’ve got them winning both of those games, so unless I think they are going to be 7-0 going into Clemson, I’ve got to pick them to lose on Friday night, right?

Except GT, Cal and the record going into Clemson really have absolutely nothing to with Friday night’s game. It’s about matchups, execution and random events. So I’m right back to where I started — struggling to pick between Virginia Tech’s playmakers and Pitt’s experience and physicality up front on defense.

I guess it’s ultimately such an even matchup, and I go back to my line before last year’s PSU-Oregon game:

“Watch, Oregon is going to win because Penn State never beats teams that can equal them in talent.”

There’s also the fact that the Panthers have so many seniors up front and seem more like a roster built for 2026, whereas the Hokies are built for 2027 and 2028. I'll probably change my mind by Friday, but alas, the preview has to run today.

Chris’ Prediction: Pitt 27, Virginia Tech 24

Will Stewart (Founder): I thought about this one long and hard. The QBs are basically equal. (Not sure I agree with that, but you can’t argue with the numbers.) VT might have more playmakers on offense, as Chris points out, but the Pitt offensive line is older and more experienced.

Defensively, the Panthers have an edge in every traditional statistical category that Chris listed. I looked up VT’s defensive numbers, and not one of them is better than Pitt’s corresponding defensive numbers.

Message board poster QCP (who is money; follow him), posted some numbers from fourthandshort.com that demonstrate that Pitt has an advantage in 18 of the 30 statistical categories presented. (Sorry, embedding a post currently embeds the entire post, not just a teaser, so this is long):

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QCP

09/29/2026 at 07:43 AM ET

VT vs Pittsburgh Five Factors Preview…

For anyone into advanced metrics, fourthandshort.com has some good game matchup views that show team comparisons across numerous stats including five factors (Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers) which Bill Connelly developed that correlate to winning games in college football. Below is a view I put together based on the data as well as a few notes of analysis.

• Success Rate: Pitt has a slight edge here but both teams rank well nationally on both offense and defense as both us and Pitt are ranked in the Top 35 on offense (VT #35, Pitt #26), both are ranked Top 20 on defense (VT #17, Pitt #2) and are both ranked Top 15 in net success rate (VT #15, Pitt #4). In terms of pass and rush success rates, Pitt’s offense has had better success rates in the pass game (#14 nationally) than in the run game (#62 nationally) while VT’s offense is surprisingly the opposite (#50 pass success rate, #23 rush success rate). Defensively, Pitt is very good against both the pass (#11 defense pass success rate) and the run (#7 defense rush success rate). And while VT’s defense has also been elite against the run (#6 defense rush success rate), they are more pedestrian against the pass (#68 defense rush success rate).

• Explosiveness: Both VT and Pitt haven’t been particularly great in the explosiveness department as both offenses rank outside the Top 50 (VT #83, Pitt #60) while both defenses are even worse in allowing explosive plays (VT #99, Pitt #119) and it also reflects in their net explosiveness (VT #99, Pitt #108).

• Field Position: VT has a slight advantage in net field position over Pitt thanks in large part to great punt return and punt coverage units as we are a Top 10 team nationally in punt return average and we also have yet to allow any punt returns when punting and boast a net punting average of over 40.

• Finishing Drives (Points / Opportunity): This will be another closely contested area as both teams rank in the Top 20 in net point per opportunity in trips inside the 40-yard line. We have the more efficient offense (VT #35, Pitt #55), but Pitt has the better defense (VT #19, Pitt #3) which leads them to a slight net advantage (VT #18, Pitt #9).

• Turnover Margin: Pitt currently has the advantage here thanks to their offense’s ability to limit turnovers (just 2 turnovers on the season which is #14 nationally) as compared to VT’s offense (5 turnovers on the season which ranks #67 nationally). Neither team’s defense forces a lot of turnovers (VT #82 nationally, Pitt #103 nationally), so the game could come down to which offense takes better care of the football. As a side note, VT is one of only 4 teams this year that has fumbled at least 4 times and lost 100% of their fumbles and only Oklahoma (6 fumbles, all lost) has more fumbles than us (5 fumbles, all lost) with a 100% fumbles lost rate.

Link: Fourth and Short Pitt Game Preview

View post & replies on the TSL Pass Subscribers-Only →

This is a crazy-even matchup.

Remember, I’m the guy who makes up the roster cards, and as such, I’m the guy who types in the starting lineups for each team. And when I typed in Pitt’s starting 22 on offense and defense, for the “Class” column, I typed “5th” a lot, followed closely by “Sr.” The Panthers have nine fifth-year starters and eight senior starters. That’s 17 out of 22 starters with four or five years at the college level.

Virginia Tech lists four fifth-year guys and seven seniors, or 11 out of 22 starters with four or five years in college. On the offensive and defensive lines (nine starters for reach team), every one of Pitt’s guys is a senior or fifth-year player. For VT, it’s five out of nine.

How does Pat Narduzzi do this year after year? I remember typing up a roster card one year where 20 of Pitt’s 22 starters were either seniors or redshirt seniors. It’s crazy how Nard keeps stuffing the pipeline with grown men.

What I worry about the most, though, is that Pitt has a big experience advantage on the D-line vs. Virginia Tech’s O-line, and when you get beyond the line of scrimmage, the Panthers’ DBs are going to be draped all over Virginia Tech’s receivers and tight ends. Are the ACC refs going to call it? History says no.

I don’t like it. I can see a path to victory for Virginia Tech, but I’m going with my head here, not my heart.

Will’s Prediction: Pitt 24, Virginia Tech 20

David Cunningham (Managing Editor): This is the first game this season where every snap will matter for 60 minutes. It’ll come down to the little details, too — taking care of the ball, staying in front of the chains, limiting penalties and winning one-on-one battles.

Like Chris wrote, this is a dead-even matchup. It’s enticing because it’s exactly what Virginia Tech fans have been waiting for: a meaningful game in Lane Stadium. Enjoy it. It’s been far too long.

However, I picked the Panthers in the preseason, and I will stick with my pick this week. Both teams have looked susceptible at times through the first four weeks, but I give Pitt the advantage due to its experience, particularly up front. I still worry about Tech’s offensive line holding up for four quarters.

It’s a coin flip, honestly. I expect it to come down to the wire, but right now, I feel like the Panthers will make one more play when it counts. Maybe the sold-out crowd can lift the Hokies across the finish line, though.

David’s Prediction: Pitt 30, Virginia Tech 24

Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): I picked Pitt to win this game in the preseason, and not much has happened to make me change my mind other than the Hokies have looked pretty good so far early in the season.

I have questions about Tech’s O-line and its ability to hold up against Pitt’s pass rush. And I wonder how much of an impact the Hokies’ defensive front can make on a veteran group of Pitt blockers.

But the Panthers have questions, too, not the least of which is how will they handle playing in a road environment for the first time? And this isn’t just going to be a milquetoast crowd. Expect Lane Stadium to be juiced at getting to witness a really big game for the first time since 2021 against UNC. Remember the crowd that evening? Electric throughout. I wonder if Friday might have the feeling.

There’s also this little stat about disagreements between the betting line and ESPN’s FPI. Currently, FPI gives Pitt a better chance to win, though the Hokies remain favorites (-3, down from an opening of -6).

View tweet

Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Pitt 23

Nick Brown (Director of Media): Virginia Tech is 4-0 for the first time since I was a sophomore in high school. That was 2017. If you asked me to go and pick my fondest memory from that football season, I would give you two answers. Attending College GameDay with my cousin and the game-winning goal-line stand against Pitt.

Two years later, with the flu, I forced myself to go to Bud Foster’s final home game to witness one final shutout. I love watching the Hokies play the Panthers in Lane Stadium. It always feels like an old-school, gritty, gridiron clash. 

This will be another fun quarterback duel, with each signal caller probably tossing the rock 35-plus times. The atmosphere will be off the chain, and I expect a few false starts, despite whatever Pat Narduzzi may say about Lane Stadium. 

With this game on national TV and the college football world focused on Blacksburg, both teams could really generate some headlines with a win. If Virginia Tech wins, the fan base will go absolutely nuclear, and the national media will be flirting with the b word (back).

For engagement and business purposes, I really hope the Hokies move to 5-0. 

Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Pitt 20

2026 Virginia Tech Football Predictions Tracker (For the weekly game score prediction contest, click here)
Game	Chris (5-0)	Will (5-0)	David (5-0)	Andy (4-1)	Nick (4-1)	Fans (4-1)	Result
VMI	58-7	55-6	66-7	52-3	59-3	(Ave.): 53.2 - 5.2	73-3
Old Dominion	31-14	34-17	35-17	33-13	38-10	(Ave.): 39.5 - 13.6	44-21
@Maryland	27-23	27-13	26-24	27-24	31-27	(Ave.): 30.5 - 21.8	35-26
@Boston College	31-14	34-17	28-10	28-14	27-7	(Ave.) 31.3 - 12.2	21-14
Pitt	27-24	24-20	30-24	27-23	24-20	(Ave.) 28.0 - 23.3	35-33
@California	38-21	34-13	31-14	37-24	34-17