- Virginia Tech vs. Cal: Friday, Oct. 24, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.
- Betting line: Virginia Tech -5.5
- Roster cards: Click here
- Blacksburg weather: Click here
The Golden Bears began the season with three straight wins, including an upset of Minnesota. However, things haven’t gone quite so smoothly in their last four games. First, they were thrashed 34-0 by San Diego State before squeaking out a 28-24 victory over hapless Boston College. They were then crushed at home 45-21 by Duke before another narrow 21-18 win over struggling North Carolina.
Justin Wilcox is in his ninth season as Cal’s head coach. He sports a 47-52 career record. However, he’s only 25-44 in conference games. The Golden Bears have never had a winning conference record under Wilcox, so if they can beat Virginia Tech to get to 3-1 in ACC play, they’ll have a chance to do something they’ve never done before. A victory would also make them bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.
Let’s take a closer look at Cal.
Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
According to Cal’s game notes, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is pronounced KEY-ah-vay song-UH-polu-tell-ay. Yeah. I think we’re just going to call him JKS (6-3, 225).
The true freshman started the season hot but has cooled off over the last few weeks. Let’s check out his numbers in his first three games compared to his last four:
• First three games: 71-of-106 (67%) for 780 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT
• Last four games: 80-of-142 (56.3%) for 916 yards, 4 TDs, 6 INTs
It’s not a coincidence that Cal began its season 3-0 with wins over Oregon State and Minnesota because JKS was playing at a pretty high level. It’s also not a coincidence that it’s struggled in its last four games because he hasn’t played as well. He’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns recently, and turnovers will make any team struggle.
He’s also not the type of quarterback who has given the Hokies trouble this year. Cal has a more traditional running game and JKS isn’t much of a runner — he has -27 rushing yards on 32 carries this season. He totaled 37 yards in his first three games but has had negative rushing yards in four of his last five contests.
JKS hails from Ewa Beach, Hawaii, located on the island of Oahu. He’s a rare left-handed quarterback and has a quick release. He’ll be a different kind of challenge for the Virginia Tech defense, but his performances have been trending down, and the Hokies have played much better against pocket quarterbacks this season than they have against signal-callers who are central to their team’s running game.
The Cal Offense By The Numbers
The Golden Bears haven’t performed well on offense this season, especially after their starting quarterback began to hit the wall. Here’s a look at their traditional numbers:
• Rushing: 94.29 yards per game, No. 131 out of 136
• Yards per carry: 3.04 yards per carry, No. 131
• Passing: 249.1 yards per game, No. 54
• Passer rating: 125.71, No. 97
• Yards per attempt: 6.8, No. 92
• Total yards: 343.4 yards per game, No. 104
• Scoring offense: 23.7 points, No. 94
Cal can’t run the ball at all. It can pass for a decent number of yards, but it’s one of the least efficient teams in the country when throwing the ball. It’s outside the top 100 in total yards and is averaging just 23.7 points per game.
The advanced metrics paint a similar picture.
• OF+: No. 97
• Available Yards: No. 89
Cal has scored more than 21 points just once in its last four games — a 28-24 win against a Boston College team that ranks No. 102 nationally in total defense. (Virginia Tech ranks No. 77, in case you were wondering.) Whatever the Golden Bears had going at the beginning of the season has apparently disappeared. To win, they need to play a low-scoring, grind-it-out type of football.
Other Offensive Players To Note
NC State transfer running back Kendrick Raphael (5-11, 200, Jr.) has been the only productive player in Cal’s running game. The Florida native was a solid rotational piece for the Wolfpack, and he leads Cal with 495 rushing yards and five touchdowns this season while averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Raphael has 115 carries on the season while no other player has more than 34. He’s a good back with a pair of 100-yard rushing games under his belt against Texas Southern and Boston College, but overall, this running game struggles mightily.
Jacob De Jesus (5-7, 170, Sr.) is the ultimate checkdown slot receiver with 47 catches for 406 yards (8.6 yards per catch). He’s tied for the team lead with three receiving touchdowns. He played for UNLV last year, where he ironically scored the go-ahead touchdown in the LA Bowl against… Cal. He had 13 catches against North Carolina last Friday. The Golden Bears will look to get the ball in his hands a lot.
You might think that Mason Mini would be a slot receiver, but at 6-4, 240, he’s the tight end. He’s got 27 receptions for 287 yards and three touchdowns on the season. The redshirt sophomore has been quite a revelation after catching just five passes for FCS Idaho last year.
Trond Grizzell (6-4, 205, r-Sr.) is the rare fifth-year senior who has spent his entire career at the same school. He’s Cal’s top big-play threat, averaging 16.7 yards per catch this year, though he didn’t have a catch against UNC.
Speaking of big play threats, Cal doesn’t have many. Here’s where Cal ranks nationally in plays of 10-plus, 20-plus, 30-plus and 40-plus yards:
• 10-plus: No. 100
• 20-plus: No. 41
• 30-plus: No. 122
• 40-plus: No. 134 (tied for last)
To have a good offense, you must be able to generate yardage from big plays, and the Golden Bears have been unable to do that on a consistent basis through seven games.
Cal’s offensive line has been middling, and like most teams, it doesn’t have much depth. It’ll most likely play only six players against the Hokies. Overall, this is the type of offense that the Virginia Tech defense has performed well against this season, and it’ll have to play well on Friday night for the Hokies to have a chance to win.
The Cal Defense By The Numbers
The Cal defense isn’t elite, but it’s solid across the board — and light years ahead of its offensive counterparts. The traditional numbers:
• Rushing: 122.57 yards per game, No. 42 out of 136
• Yards per carry: 4.13 yards per carry, No. 75
• Passing: 201.1 yards per game, No. 46
• Opp. Passer rating: 116.88, No. 29
• Yards per attempt: 6.3, No. 28
• Total yards: 323.7 yards per game, No. 34
• Scoring defense: 21.9 points, No. 49
Those numbers indicate the Golden Bears are a very balanced defense. They are slightly below average in yards per carry allowed, but they compensate for it by making opposing passing attacks extremely inefficient. That doesn’t bode well for a struggling Virginia Tech passing game.
Here are their advanced numbers:
• DF+: No. 55
• Available Yards: No. 28
Cal doesn’t allow many yards. However, their DF+ rating likely gets a negative hit because opposing offenses score a touchdown on 65 percent of red-zone opportunities, which ranks just No. 88 in the country.
Overall, this isn’t a good matchup for the Hokies offense, but if we’re being honest, no defense they’ve faced thus far has been a good matchup.
Key Defensive Players
Cal’s defensive strength is in the secondary, and it’s headlined by two very good corners and a quality nickel.
Cornerback Hezekiah Masses (6-1, 185, Sr.) is an FIU transfer who has four interceptions and nine passes broken up this season. Teams have targeted him a lot — 43 times to be exact — but he’s allowed fewer than 50 percent of those attempts to be completed (20, for 46.5%). To be fair, Texas Southern had six of the 23 incompletions, but Masses is a playmaker at corner.
Cornerback Brent Austin (5-11, 180, Sr.) is a California native who previously played for James Madison and USF. He doesn’t have the interceptions that Masses has, ummm, amassed, but he’s been the more consistent player. He’s allowed only 10 completions this season and missed just two tackles. Per PFF, he has the fourth-highest coverage grade of any cornerback in the country this year (minimum 150 coverage snaps). He’s really good.
Nickel Cam Sidney (5-11, 185, r-Jr.) has also been very good, aside from one 80-yarder by San Diego State. He attended powerhouse Mater Dei High School in Riverside. He’ll be on the field for roughly half of the game, perhaps a little more, depending on the formations Virginia Tech uses, as well as down and distance.
Cal has a very good young linebacker named Luke Ferrelli (6-3, 230, r-Fr.), who has 54 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss this season. He can be a bit inconsistent against the run at times. Fellow linebacker Cade Uluave (6-1, 235, Jr.) makes plays and has 3.5 tackles for loss this year, but he’s also inconsistent and has missed a whopping 14 tackles this season. That’s a very high number for a linebacker.
Edge TJ Bush Jr. (6-3, 265, Jr.) leads the team with three sacks while nobody else has more than 1.5. Cal has only 10 sacks on the season and doesn’t pressure the quarterback much. That’s a good sign for Tech’s struggling offensive line. However, the same could be said about the Georgia Tech defense before it faced the Hokie offense.
Cal’s weakness on defense is up the middle and its strength is at corner, which means Virginia Tech needs to come out and “run the dang ball, man.”
Special Teams
Cal has used two kickers this year. Chase Meyer is 3-for-4 with a long of 43 yards while Abram Murray is 3-for-3 with a long of 49. All three of Murray’s attempts have been from beyond 40 yards, so it seems like he’s the long field goal specialist.
Meyer, Murray and Michael Luckhurst have all handled kickoffs this year. They have combined for just three touchbacks. There will be opportunities in the return game, though Cal’s coverage team has been solid.
As far as the Bears’ return game goes, keep an eye on De Jesus again. He’ll return kicks and punts, and though he’s never taken one back for a touchdown in his career, he’s capable of doing so. He’s especially dangerous on punt returns, where he’s averaged 12.1 yards per return in his career and has averaged over 10 yards per return in every season.
Virginia Tech-Cal Prediction Poll
Before our staff makes their picks, tell us what you think will happen Saturday.Final Thoughts
Virginia Tech and Cal last faced each other in the 2003 Insight Bowl, with the Golden Bears pulling out a 52-49 win on a last-second field goal. That one was a shootout with Aaron Rodgers vs. Bryan Randall, Kevin Jones, et al. On paper, this one doesn’t have the appearance of such a shootout. Instead, this one looks more like a low-20s rock fight.Thus far, Cal has been better at winning those types of games than Virginia Tech, though it’s also had the luxury of playing Boston College (1-6, 0-4) and North Carolina (2-4, 0-2), who are a combined 0-6 in the ACC. The Golden Bears got thumped by Duke (4-3, 3-1). ESPN ranks Cal’s strength of schedule at No. 118, whereas the Hokies are at No. 46.
This seems like a pick’em. The overall records of both teams would suggest that Cal will win, but the metrics would indicate that this one should be a very close matchup. Can Virginia Tech win a close game? That was a big struggle under Brent Pry, who was just 1-12 in such contests. Thus far, Philip Montgomery is 1-1, with a victory against NC State and a defeat at the hands of Wake Forest.
I don’t know. Your guess is as good as mine. I’ll pick Virginia Tech in a close one, but this one is 50-50. If the Hokies don’t win it, have we seen their last win this season?
Chris’ Prediction: Virginia Tech 23, Cal 20
Will Stewart, Founder: Chris’ rundown of Cal sounds like a team that’s 3-4 or 2-5, not … (checks Cal schedule/results) … 5-2. The key is the schedule. Cal has wins over FCS Texas Southern, and three of its FBS wins are over Oregon State, BC and UNC, who are a combined 4-17. The Golden Bears’ win over 5-2 Minnesota is the outlier, kind of like Virginia Tech’s win over NC State is an outlier.
With that out of the way, this game is shaping up to be a grinder. These teams just aren’t very good, and neither one is a threat to light it up through the air on offense. If the Hokies keep De Jesus and Mini under control, this one’s going to come down to the running game, and that’s where Virginia Tech has the advantage, particularly if Terion Stewart is fully healthy.
I think analyzing it any deeper than that is overthinking it. Run the football, don’t get behind the chains and Virginia Tech will be fine.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Cal 17
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): It’s surprising to me that the Hokies are favored by 5.5 points in this one. For what it’s worth, they’re 1-6 against the spread this season, with the lone cover coming in the win at NC State.
As Chris said, it’s a toss-up. I think I’ll lean Virginia Tech coming off an open week and at home under the lights, but not by much. The Hokies’ offense is better than the Bears’ offense, but their defense is nowhere near as good. I’ll say it comes down to special teams, where John Love comes up clutch and pushes Tech over the top.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 19, Cal 17
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Despite its 5-2 record, Cal’s not a great team. But neither is Virginia Tech, which is why I think this one’s close to a coin flip, despite the Hokies being favored by 5.5 or so. Tech has played OK in spurts but hasn’t been able to put together much of a complete game the last few weeks. Though Cal doesn’t have a quarterback that’s going to hurt you too much on the ground, something that’s been a big issue for the Hokies this year, he can sling it and make plays. I think he makes enough to nip a struggling Hokies squad by a point.
Andy’s Prediction: Cal 24, Virginia Tech 23
Nick Brown (Director of Media): The “Calgorithm” has been a highly entertaining group to follow on social media this week. I highly implore all of you to search “Calgorithm” on X (formerly Twitter) and read through the goofiness and trolling from the Cal faithful. They took particular interest in my Game Week graphic that featured punter Nick Veltsistas. Of course, they don’t realize (nor do a lot of Tech fans) that I like to highlight every phase of the game and include as many players as possible in my graphics.
For that reason (and it is a stupid one), I expect the Hokies to pull off a special teams play that flips the trajectory of the game. This game will be ugly, and not many points will be scored. I think that bodes well for Virginia Tech, who has only eclipsed 30 points once this season.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 19, Cal 17
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24-11 |
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44-20 |
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 45-26 |
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38-6 |
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23-21 |
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 30-23 |
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35-20 |
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42-34 (2 OT) |
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28-16 |
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34-14 |
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34-17 |
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| Fan Poll | Score | ||
| Gamecocks Win by 11+ (39%) |  |
Gamecocks 24, Hokies 11 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (50%) |  |
Vanderbilt 44, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (36%) | |
ODU 45, VT 26 | |
| Hokies Win by 11+ (62%) | |
Hokies 38, Terriers 6 | |
| Wolfpack Wins by 11+ (59%) | |
Hokies 23, Wolfpack 21 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (58%) | |
Deacs 30, Hokies 23 | |
| Jackets Win by 11+ (63%) | |
Jackets 35, Hokies 20 | |
| Hokies Win by 1-10 (52%) | |
Hokies 42, Golden Bears 34 (2 OT) | |
| Cardinals Win by 11+ (64%) | |
Cardinals 28, Hokies 16 | |
| Seminoles Win by 11+ (49%) | |
Seminoles 34, Hokies 14 | |
| Canes Win by 11+ (79%) | |
Hurricanes 34, Hokies 17 | |
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